Fare volatility SYD to SFO/LAX

[file51]

As most here would know, fare prices between SYD & SFO/LAX have been highly volatile over the last few weeks with UA dropping fares to $953 all inc (now showing as $1099) and VA with there $975 fare which ends today.

QF have kept there fares quite a bit above these prices at approx $1349 however I feel this may largely be in part due to there Kids Fly Free promo which ends on Friday the 20th.

What I am wondering, and seeking opinions on, is what do you think is around the corner, say in the next 2-4 weeks?

Will we see QF enter this aggressive pricing as per what could be interpreted from the announcement they made a few days ago regarding there plea for Australians support....

Obviously aside from satisfying my curiousity, I have a vested interested as I have been given permission by the minister of war and finance for a quick U.S. trip in April to do some Adobe certified courses and get up to scratch on CS4.

The fare I am looking at is $1,347 all inc with QF doing a multi-city booking SYD-SFO April 6th, then LAX-SYD April 19th (all economy as that is a condition of me doing this trip). This fare is valid till the 20th of Feb.

So the million dollar question... do I lock it in, or take a gamble and wait to see what is a week or so away....

oh, btw... aside from doing a few Adobe courses and visiting friends there are a few KUPP/YUPP opportunities just waiting to be taken advantage of (that she who shall be obeyed doesnt know about.... lol)

 

[FL360]

It is all about demand and supply,

Demand dropped because we are heading low season
and because of the GFC will affect to a degree.

Supply increased because
1. Delta starts flying
2. V Australia starts flying
3. A380 starts flying
4. Air NZ ?

What will it tell you about the price ?

 

[file51]

It is all about demand and supply,

Demand dropped because we are heading low season
and because of the GFC will affect to a degree.

Supply increased because
1. Delta starts flying
2. V Australia starts flying
3. A380 starts flying
4. Air NZ ?

What will it tell you about the price ?

Fully understood, however I am more curious as to the opinions of others as to whether we have seen the base level of transpac fares, i.e. approx $950-975, or if there is more room for things to go down further.

Also, given that QF would shoot themselves in the foot matching those low fares whilst they have effectively a 2 fo 1 offer on (albeit for a child) will they enter the territory that NZ, UA & VA have started.

Plus we havent heard much in the way of promo fares from Delta yet???

 

[serfty]

A year ago I was looking at fares to JFK for June (with Qantas); the cheapest at the time was around $2500, LAX was in the order of $2200.

I looked at many options; my main problem being the need to depart after Mid June (Peak where the fares were over $3000).

In the end it was easier to book LONE4's.

This year, Qantas have been tweaking their fares to find the level at which the can compete - they have gone up and down quite a lot. (In January I purchased two return fares for under $1180 each - MEL-SYD/AKL-LAX-MEL.)

Qantas fares are currently running about $200 more than that.

It's possible Qantas believe they have found a level at which they can compete.

 

[Alanslegal]

What I am wondering, and seeking opinions on, is what do you think is around the corner, say in the next 2-4 weeks?

So the million dollar question... do I lock it in, or take a gamble and wait to see what is a week or so away....

I'd say take the educated gamble and lock it in now for $1350 with QF (just ignore the pricing its competitors)

As much as demand will gradually decline, I feel QF (just like many other companies) offer you the carrot for a limited time - then they may extend that carrot for another week or two - and then get rid of the discounts for a while - Just to prove to you, "that you should have got it whilst its cheap or else!"

(I'm just reflecting on my Hilton 50% weekend promotion experience - where after weeks of not making a reservation, then another two weeks extension - and now the promo is now gone and me still without a reservation)

 

[file51]

I'd say take the educated gamble and lock it in now for $1350 with QF (just ignore the pricing its competitors)

As much as demand will gradually decline, I feel QF (just like many other companies) offer you the carrot for a limited time - then they may extend that carrot for another week or two - and then get rid of the discounts for a while - Just to prove to you, "that you should have got it whilst its cheap or else!"

(I'm just reflecting on my Hilton 50% weekend promotion experience - where after weeks of not making a reservation, then another two weeks extension - and now the promo is now gone and me still without a reservation)

That is pretty much what I am thinking.

Has anyone made use of the "Pay later" option???

I realise this only gives 2-3 days to pay after leaving a huge $25 deposit, I was thinking maybe on Friday locking in the current price, to see what happens over the weekend.

My only concern is the wording of the T&C saying the fare may change???

 

[dede]

That is pretty much what I am thinking.

Has anyone made use of the "Pay later" option???

I realise this only gives 2-3 days to pay after leaving a huge $25 deposit, I was thinking maybe on Friday locking in the current price, to see what happens over the weekend.

My only concern is the wording of the T&C saying the fare may change???

I'm thinking of booking MEL-JFK for June. If I decide to change the booking there seems to be a $50 fee. I could then use this flight later? Does that make sense? Then if another better deal happens in the next few weeks I can take that.

 

[file51]

Well, the minister of war and finance (she who must be obeyed) dug her heals in.

Option given was paying for the SYD-SFO/LAX-SYD flights ($1347, 22k QFF pts, 90SC's) and fly all AA flights in O or Q class (el-cheapo fares)

OR... use points for International flights (incl $385 in fines and fees) and spend $1k or so on AA flights...

I have taken the points option.... even if it is only in Y... (oh my)

Soooooo... SFO-LAX-LAS-LAX-SFO in A class, SFO-LAX (prob in Q for re-positioning), then LAX-SFO-SEA-SFO-LAX in F class... not many QFF pts, however 540-550SC's (depending on class of repo flight)... (will have to pay a little more, but overall a better return without taking any risks waiting to see if fares come down.

oh, and keeps someone else happy in the process.

 

[docjames]

Sounds like a good return - these days SC are more use than FF points anyway.

Always good having SWMBO happy too.

 

[file51]

Sounds like a good return - these days SC are more use than FF points anyway.

Always good having SWMBO happy too.

You got it...

Having just rolled over into a new year for QFF status (Feb 1), and giving up on getting WP in January (needed 500 points in 3 weeks where I was going to be stateside, but found myself Sydney'side) settling for SG this 500+ SC's will guarantee WP this year (2-3 potential work trips in Y+ or J) and travels in November which will earn 800-900 SC's.

The points from the recent Amex promo pretty much nullify any reduction in my overall QFF balance, so all is good

 

[laffer]

I guess I am too late to really contribute anything to this thread but I have flown Air Tahiti Nui on this route and found them to be very good and exellent value (at the times when fares on the pacific route were sky high - I am looking at you UA). I had a nice stop in Tahiti (incredibly overpriced) but enjoyed the IFE and service on Air Tahiti Nui. I really think it is a good alternative if going to NYE.

 

[turtlemichael]

Soooooo... SFO-LAX-LAS-LAX-SFO in A class, SFO-LAX (prob in Q for re-positioning), then LAX-SFO-SEA-SFO-LAX in F class... not many QFF pts, however 540-550SC's (depending on class of repo flight)...

Not sure if it fits your schedule but it would make the minister even happier, SFO-LAX-SEA-LAX-SFO earns the same number of SCs, a few more points and is over USD100 cheaper than LAX-SFO-SEA-SFO-LAX

 

[file51]

Not sure if it fits your schedule but it would make the minister even happier, SFO-LAX-SEA-LAX-SFO earns the same number of SCs, a few more points and is over USD100 cheaper than LAX-SFO-SEA-SFO-LAX

Certainly something I hadnt thought of, nor seen come up as an option as an instant upgrade fare...

The saving is a benefit, however it would eliminate the ability to stay in LA for 2 nights prior to going to Seattle (where my training course is), & add $100 in repo fares (O-Q class getting from SFO) if still doing a LA visit. The initial repo flight would just be used on the final day.

If the SC's gave a better return, certainly a great option...

Was thinking of doing the following... SYD-SFO-LAX-LAS 2 nights LAS-LAX-SFO-LAX 2 nights LAX-SFO-SEA 9 nights SEA-SFO-LAX-SYD

Thanks for the suggestion all the same, something I will keep in mind as I travel to Seattle at least 2-3 times every year (normally from HNL on HA)

 

[file51]

edited, new question in its own thread