Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Here’s my daily compulsion on NSW mystery cases

Today’s reports indicate
- 4 in the past 7 days
- 2 in the period 8-14 days
- 0 in the period 15-28 days
- 28 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

So no change today ....

NSW mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 4 in the past 7 days
- 2 in the period 8-14 days
- 0 in the period 15-28 days
- 28 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

So no change today ....

 

[jakeseven7]

He doesn’t have to be the one man band... he really should be using his minsters effectively. I think this is part of the problem.

There is usually a minister or two presenting as well

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Just some of key changes announced for Vic.

METRO
No time limits on exercise etc
5 up to 25km
Hairdressers/Beauty to open
More home maintenance allowed included pool cleaning.
More outdoor recreations allowed- Tennis, Golf, Skateparks....

From next Sunday 4 reasons to leave home removed.

From 1 Nov
Retail to re-open.
Cafes etc subject to limits to reopen.

So from that obviously still worried about mystery cases and giving things another two weeks to get them under control.


REGIONAL get further relaxations. ie Dining venues increase limits up to 70.

To someone not following the details of Melbourne’s restrictions as closely, it sounds like a return to the old Stage 3, not sure how this lines up with the proposed and deferred Step 3.

 

[antycbr]

There is usually a minister or two presenting as well

Yes but he should be allowed to take time off. Sometimes time to think is what is needed. Dan could do with a day or two to do that.

 

[justinbrett]

I think it’s less fuss more confusion / communication breakdown to be honest, even people on AFF weren’t 100% sure about the rules of the bubble and we after all are travel experts, armchair airline CEOs and part time epidemiologists

It’s really not. Victoria just didn’t consider the flow on effect from the bubble. I’m not sure how a Kiwi is any different than a Sydneysider arriving in Melbourne.

From the Air New Zealand website:
Passengers planning to travel interstate beyond New South Wales will need to ensure they have checked state and territory travel restrictions and have the appropriate exemptions/approvals to travel as these continue to change.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just some of key changes announced for Vic.

METRO
No time limits on exercise etc
5 up to 25km
Hairdressers/Beauty to open
More home maintenance allowed included pool cleaning.
More outdoor recreations allowed- Tennis, Golf, Skateparks....

From next Sunday 4 reasons to leave home removed.

From 1 Nov
Retail to re-open.
Cafes etc subject to limits to reopen.

So from that obviously still worried about mystery cases and giving things another two weeks to get them under control.


REGIONAL get further relaxations. ie Dining venues increase limits up to 70.

Just on the mystery cases, when the Roadmap was originally announced to get to Step3 one of the two triggers was that less that 5 mystery cases per fortnight was the target, and this was based on what was in the modelling.

So just to recap on why 5, and what was in the modelling.

The graph below shows the risk of needing to go back to Step 2 Restrictions, based on the number of mystery cases occurring when Step 3 was entered.

The mystery case trigger is currently 15. So if you insert that into the graph below, one can see that moving to a full Step 3 would have a large risk of needing to revert back into Step 3 Restrictions. However there were two triggers and the new cases per day trigger has almost been met.

Note: The original target date was 26 October which we are still 8 days off. Mystery cases will probably still be above 5 by then, but hopefully not far above. New cases per day probably will be less than the original second trigger target of 5 cases per day though.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

NSW 1 local case linked case, 4 in international quarantine

 

[jakeseven7]

View attachment 230698

No new mystery cases.

And another mystery case solved retrospectively as well which is good news

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Yes but he should be allowed to take time off. Sometimes time to think is what is needed. Dan could do with a day or two to do that.

Yes, but I think we all know Vic Premier is allowed to, just Vic Premier chooses not to.....sigh.

 

[jakeseven7]

NSW mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 4 in the past 7 days
- 2 in the period 8-14 days
- 0 in the period 15-28 days
- 28 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

So no change today ....

QLD has gone awfully quiet on their NSW border clock. No ‘no’ signals which has to be a positive.... guess we will find out in two weeks...

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

QLD has gone awfully quiet on their NSW border clock. No ‘no’ signals which has to be a positive.... guess we will find out in two weeks...

Qld, no change - no new cases, 4 active remaining - we all know they are on silent mode (the mode that shall not be named lol)

 

[antycbr]

QLD has gone awfully quiet on their NSW border clock. No ‘no’ signals which has to be a positive.... guess we will find out in two weeks...

NSW has also stopped talking about Queensland too - which means the QLD side haven’t got anything to whinge back at. The NSW premier has been a bit busy this week!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

To someone not following the details of Melbourne’s restrictions as closely, it sounds like a return to the old Stage 3, not sure how this lines up with the proposed and deferred Step 3.

I have not compared things completely and still need to read through the full list of things. However on your last point, they are delaying a lot of the activities that would allow more random mixing of people ( ie Settings where an asymptomatic spreader could wreak havoc) but allowing more movement and social freedoms now, but mainly ones where the risk is very low, and where most person to person contacts will be known.

Most likely as per my recent posts this will be due the number of mystery cases that we have recently have had. And any mystery case means that an unknow person transmitted to the mystery case. Also with those mystery cases their has been a wide geographic spread where they have been popping up with seemingly no pattern.

So I think the delay on greater mixing settings is so that they can deploy maximum resources to tackling the mystery cases that will most keep occurring for a little bit yet. With a lot of random mixing those mystery cases may well have greatly accelerated.

With less large random mixing (ie a fully operating Chadstone for example) it will be easier to investigate new cases as there will be a lot less possible transmission paths.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

See full document at https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-10/201018 - Metro Melb - Easing of restrictions .pdf

 

[lovetravellingoz]

When the Roadmap was originally announced the timeline was:

Step One – September 14 (officially 11.59pm September 13); Step Two – September 28; Step Three – October 26 (subject to meeting triggers) and Step Four (Last Step) – November 23 and finally a COVID Normal.​

Now initial progress was excellent we were in front of the curves and so it was announced that Step 3 (or parts of it) could be earlier October 19) as the triggers were all tracking a head of schedule. Then things regressed somewhat so that we were on track with one of the original triggers, but behind with the more crucial mystery case trigger (A trigger that now will not be used, but where they have indicated that they will be very much focussed on mystery cases and the story behind them. They clearly want the number of mystery cases to be driven down yet.).

What we now have is "Step 3 Light" (or relaxation of Step 2 restrictions) as of 11.59pm 18 Oct and "Step 3 Almost" on 11.59pm 1 Nov (Edit, This step may be earlier if mystery cases decline to a level that they are comfortable with). These adaptions being allowed by low new cases per day, but clearly being modified due the fear that mystery cases could spike things up again if too much random mixing is allowed too quickly.

So we have gained some benefits 8 days earlier and most of the originally planned Step 3 measures 6 days later.

However given that modelling is not precise to still essentially get to Step 3 roughly as originally planned is still excellent news.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And also from the Vic Presser today - update on New Zealanders who have recently arrived in Australia arriving into Vic.

Will be allowed into Vic, just as the first 55-ish have been, but they want to be able to brief all recent arrivals from NZ as to what the restrictions in Vic are that need to be complied with.

Vic may consider resuming passenger flights into Vic to better enable this.

Comment: Not long back a lady from Townsville arrived in Melb and was either positive when she arrived (not implausible give the sewer sampling in Townesville), or manged to somehow catch it within a day of arriving from a very small number of infected people. So ensuring that new arrival who have not been in the country is probably a pretty reasonable measure.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

BREAKING NEWS

My wife's hairdresser has already called to move my wife's pre-booked appointment earlier as per the relaxed restrictions.

Happy Wife, Happy Life

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

When the Roadmap was originally announced the timeline was:

Step One – September 14 (officially 11.59pm September 13); Step Two – September 28; Step Three – October 26 (subject to meeting triggers) and Step Four (Last Step) – November 23 and finally a COVID Normal.​

Now initial progress was excellent we were in front of the curves and so it was announced that Step 3 (or parts of it) could be earlier October 19) as the triggers were all tracking a head of schedule. Then things regressed somewhat so that we were on track with one of the original triggers, but behind with the more crucial mystery case trigger (A trigger that now will not be used, but where they have indicated that they will be very much focussed on mystery cases and the story behind them. They clearly want the number of mystery cases to be driven down yet.).

What we now have is "Step 3 Light" (or relaxation of Step 2 restrictions) as of 11.59pm 18 Oct and "Step 3 Almost" on 11.59pm 1 Nov. These adaptions being allowed by low new cases per day, but clearly being modified due the fear that mystery cases could spike things up again if too much random mixing is allowed too quickly.

So we have gained some benefits 8 days earlier and most of the originally planned Step 3 measures 6 days later.

However given that modelling is not precise to still essentially get to Step 3 roughly as originally planned is still excellent news.

So are all the step 3 Melbourne relaxations on 1 November fixed or subject to some numbers hitting targets?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So are all the step 3 Melbourne relaxations on 1 November fixed or subject to some numbers hitting targets?

Step 3 may be earlier than 1st November.

They have now moved from fixed public targets, but have discussed that they are focusing on mystery cases and the stories behind them.

So they have indicated that once they are comfortable with the risk from mystery cases being low enough Step3 will begin.

Comment: Announcing 1 Nov gives the restaurants etc some certainty to start planning for.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Step 3 may be earlier than 1st November.

They have now moved from fixed public targets, but have discussed that they are focusing on mystery cases and the stories behind them.

So once they are comfortable with the risk from mystery cases being low enough Step3 will begin.

Comment: Announcing 1 Nov gives the restaurants etc some certainty to start planning for.

Sorry if this sounds crass, but what’s open and allowable on Melbourne Cup Day, assuming Step 3 happens by then?