Ok, some more precise data on the unknown (mystery) Victorian cases per day recently. This has been unknown (excuse the pun!) for some time as it was only being released as a rolling 14 day figure.
This allows us to see the effect on any new cases on the rolling 14 day trigger.
This table just below shows two main groups of unknown cases of 8 unknown cases over 3 days, and then 4 over 3 days.
So
if no new mystery cases after today, then the 14 day trigger will stay ay 13 for two more days then drop to 12. On Oct 8th it will drop to 4 (ie under the trigger). Then on Oct 15th to zero. Now if there are additional cases the trigger may well go up until that bulge of 8 cases is passed.
However in recent days there has been 4 cases in 3 days, and so hence one can more understand Sutton's comments earlier today at the presser.
Now as the trigger for 19th would be on 14 days prior to that
it is the next 14 days which will determine the trigger for that date. But the per day mystery cases below to flag how the "comfort" of Vic Officials has probably shifted from being more buoyant several days back, to being more cautious now
For a trigger of less than 5 over 14 days, that is say 1 case every 3 days. The last 7 days have had 4 cases and so we we need to do about half of that.
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Unknown cases (remember the 48 hr lag for classifying) were announced today as being 13.
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