Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

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I’m guessing ABC Covid live blog is covering Vic Premier press conference now and this info is from that

The metropolitan Melbourne 14-day rolling average is 74.5

The regional Victorian rolling average is five.

That means across the board it is an 80.8 average across both regional and metro Melbourne.
 
One should note that the official 14 day average used by the DHHS is slightly lower that the actual 14 day average.

My guess is that this is due to the daily adjustments that one sees most days that reduce the total due to correcting the data from earlier days (duplications etc). If you averaged on the initial daily figures announced each day you would end up with a higher average than the true 14 day average. ie See graphic below.

The green DHHS curve now sits at 74.5 as at 11.15am on 9th Sept.

1599617184550.png



With Regional Victoria the trigger is teetering on the level that would allow restrictions to be eased.

1599616891284.png
 
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Gladys must immediately slam the border shut to this huge threat coming out of SE Qld.

😂

Well luckily we have one state premier who is a grown up and today again she called for state borders to begin opening, despite the cases numbers in QLD slowly rising.

 
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So my father had anaphalyxis when he was given penicillin for pneumonia. Almost killed him as he was on a naval ship at the time and the allergy was not known. Yet penincillin is still an anitbiotic of choice in many infections. One reaction in what is it? 30,000? Will be interested to see what has happened.
Yes I agree. It's always a hard choice about side effects (even if serious) for a very small number v good results for the rest. I was devastated, as an arthritis sufferer, when they banned Vioxx some years back because a few people had very serious heart complications, because it was by far the most effective treatment for me. It will be very interesting to see what the "acceptable" settings are in the COVID era.
 
According to the BBC this is actually the second time the testing has been suspended while an illness in a participant is investigated. The important point made is that the testing is immediately suspended if a participant goes to hospital with any illness and the cause is not immediately apparent. The article also says that it is thought the testing would re-commence in a few days.

And it is very good to see that the high standards of testing are being upheld, even under the extreme time pressure that is the current reality.
 
And of course the assumption that the ill participant in the vaccine trial is actually receiving the real version and not a placebo.
And that the medical event experienced is related to the vaccine and not some other random event. I guess this is why they need to halt the trial, so they can do all that checking up.

I would also like to say a big thank you to all the selfless people who volunteer for these trials for the benefit of the whole community. I hope this volunteer recovers quickly and completely.
 
Anaphalyxic reactions to drugs dont seem historically to be a reason to not certify drugs for use.

Penicillin is one of the most common drugs allergies (i know many many people who are allergic to it), and you have have no way of knowing you are allergic until some doctor prescribes it for you.

Both my Grandfather and I were/are highly allergic to Penicillin. The effects from my Pop's Anaphalyxic shock as a adult were so severe he was never able to work again (after ending up in a coma for a while), and a girl I went to school with had mild brain damage from reaction to Penicillin which also saw her in a Coma. I was luckier to avoid severe effects due to a super observant nurse who noticed my reaction within a minute of giving the penicillin so early intervention and a life time of diligence to make sure I am never given it again.

So if a drug as potentially dangerous as penicillin is the most widely used antibiotic (with no screening to check for allergies before prescribing), then surely one reaction to a vaccine wouldn't be enough to not have it in use - if it works and is safe for the majority.

Something like 1 in every 1000 people who get the yellow fever vaccine end up with a collapsed lung, that is why you have to stay for monitoring for 15 mins after the yellow fever vaccine is given to make sure all is ok before being sent home. One of my uni class mates who had to get Yellow Fever vaccine before a exchange trip to Africa was the unlucky 1.
 
I'm not totally convinced that judges etc are necessarily the right ones to reach the right conclusions, but you may have a point. The trouble in the legal system is essentially set up to be adversarial and attribute blame.

What concerns me is that when you have safety breaches, and lets face it this was the mother of all safety breaches, there is specific expertise that aims to look deeply into all the cultural, management, procedural, policy, environmental and external settings that contributed to that safety breach and in the short term identify learnings and immediate actions, and in the medium term identify all of the contributing factors and those that are most critical to address. There's specific expertise used to get to root causes (although in a workplace setting pressure from management can sometime prevent getting to these).

Also, in my experience in conducting investigations, it's not the formal investigations that bring out all the information, sometimes the informal conversations you have over coffee or in the back of a taxi that elicit really useful, honest information. Let's not kid ourselves that anyone appearing before a live streamed judicial inquiry is not well prepped to do so. There is honesty, I am sure, but stage managed honesty will be a feature of these testimonies.
It depends on the Counsel Assisting.

The Ruby Princess Commission certainly got to the bottom of the matter, as have many ICAC hearings. Producing text messages, emails etc unexpectedly have a habit of making even the best rehearsed 'player' reconsider perjury or an attempted cover-up.

The Ruby Princess report put it so succinctly - nothing wrong with the procedures, just the people not following them.
 
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Just on penicillin, I plan to now get tested again as I first had an allergic reaction in my 20s and so have avoided it ever since. But evidently many do not stay allergic to it..

SUMMARY
Penicillin allergies are not always lifelong. Approximately 50% are lost over five years. A reaction to penicillin during a childhood infection is unlikely to be a true allergy.

Only 1–2% of patients with a confirmed penicillin allergy have an allergy to cephalosporins. In patients with a low risk of severe allergic reactions, cephalosporins are a relatively safe treatment option.

Patients with a history of delayed non-severe reactions, such as mild childhood rashes that occurred over 10 years ago, may be suitable for an oral rechallenge with low-dose penicillin. This should be done in a supervised hospital environment.

In many cases, with appropriate assessment and allergy testing, it may be possible to remove the penicillin allergy label.

 
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Both my Grandfather and I were/are highly allergic to Penicillin. The effects from my Pop's Anaphalyxic shock as a adult were so severe he was never able to work again (after ending up in a coma for a while), and a girl I went to school with had mild brain damage from reaction to Penicillin which also saw her in a Coma. I was luckier to avoid severe effects due to a super observant nurse who noticed my reaction within a minute of giving the penicillin so early intervention and a life time of diligence to make sure I am never given it again.

I havent been prescribed penicillin because of Dad, just in case. It is likely that this is an inherited thing?

So apparently Victoria's curfew was not recommended under medical Advice? Did Sutton throw Andrews under the bus.
 
I havent been prescribed penicillin because of Dad, just in case. It is likely that this is an inherited thing?

So apparently Victoria's curfew was not recommended under medical Advice? Did Sutton throw Andrews under the bus.

Most of my family is allergic, and my allergy reared its head almost 20 years ago when I had pneumonia. Haven't tried it since, but have had other antibiotics that are apparently in the same family but less likely to cause a reaction in those allergic to penicillin.
 
I understood it was based on existing work so that accelerates things significantly.
Yes - based on existing work.

The fly-in-the-ointment is that the existing work has failed to find a single 'safe' corona virus vaccine. All of them (tried prior to CV) have caused worse outcomes & been dropped. The reason being that they actually had the opposite impact & 'super-charged' the various corona viruses they were supposed to be fighting - to the point that they increased the fatality rate vs the placebo recipients.

The other frontrunner, Modena, has raised some questions (see below).

They are going to be pumping these vaccines into people arms regardless of their effectiveness trust me, no need to worry. They are going to start producing before the trials that’s how much they don’t care about the results.

If it’s 20% effective - perfect! Amazing! You watch the spin machines come out into hyperdrive selling this thing :)

Glass half full - prepare in advance & stockpile to speed up availability IF vaccine proves 'safe' enough.

Glass half empty - as various Govts have paid in advance per dose for production regardless of Phase III outcomes, then that means profits for the pharma companies. Note: Modena senior execs & top scientists have virtually to a person selling their shares with some having sold most all of their holding in recent months. The SEC has been called upon to investigate for 'their changing pre-planned insider share sales'. Turns out their initial claims on 'pre-planned insider sales' did not match the details.


“Whether it is preprogrammed or not, it’s hard to believe that anybody who thought the company was going to be tremendously successful with this vaccine would be selling,” Minow said.
Harvey Pitt, a former SEC chairman who now heads Kalorama Partners, told CNN in May that the timing of the trades was “highly problematic” and that the SEC should review communications inside the company to find out “what was going on in people’s minds before all these transactions


 
One should note that the official 14 day average used by the DHHS is slightly lower that the actual 14 day average.

My guess is that this is due to the daily adjustments that one sees most days that reduce the total due to correcting the data from earlier days (duplications etc). If you averaged on the initial daily figures announced each day you would end up with a higher average than the true 14 day average. ie See graphic below.

The green DHHS curve now sits at 74.5 as at 11.15am on 9th Sept.

View attachment 227137



With Regional Victoria the trigger is teetering on the level that would allow restrictions to be eased.

View attachment 227136


This graphic from The Age has the future timeline shown and so this may assist some to visualise things better.

Note though that the 14 day average is probably just a little high as the daily figures shown by the DHHS have been a little below the 14 day average new cases per day announced (most likely the DHHs adjusts for duplications etc).


Melbourne Targets.
1599632875607.png
 
I understood it was based on existing work so that accelerates things significantly.
Well some of the vaccines are being developed using traditional methods but that doesn't necessarily mean development will be quicker.Some of the vaccines are using a totally new approach which can in fact make development quicker.
However it doesn't mean that they are based on previously developed coronavirus vaccines.One is a modification of a vaccine developed for HIV.here is an article discussing some of the different methods being used for a covid vaccine.

Some also are using old technology using different viruses to get the vaccine into the body.this article describes this method and the possible pitfalls.
 
So apparently Victoria's curfew was not recommended under medical Advice? Did Sutton throw Andrews under the bus.

Seems so. Check out those last lines (my bolding).

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is facing calls to end the state’s night-time curfew immediately, after it was revealed that the unprecedented restriction was not based on medical advice.

Chief health officer Brett Sutton dramatically threw Mr Andrews under the bus yesterday, making the explosive claim in an interview with 3AW’s Neil Mitchell.

Mitchell teed up Professor Sutton by asking if the Victorian Government had ever “introduced something without your advice, or against your advice”.

“No not against my advice, you know, the curfew came in as part of the state of disaster, for example, it wasn’t a state of emergency requirement,” Prof Sutton replied.

“So you know, that was something that was introduced, but it wasn’t something I was against from a public health perspective.”


At his daily press conference on Tuesday, Mr Andrews admitted that the curfew makes “the job of the Victoria Police much easier”.
...
Pressed further, Mr Andrews eventually said it was his decision.

So much for acting on medical advice. But at least contact tracing getting a boost, going digital, although one would hope the fax machines might be retired.

And at last protesters are getting smarter:

Victorians have signed up in the thousands to place a pair of boots outside their front doors on Sunday in protest of Premier Daniel Andrews.

After mass arrests at an anti-lockdown protest over the weekend, fringe political group Victoria Forward created a Facebook event on Wednesday called “Give Dan The Boot: Protest From Home".


I wonder if we'll see raids for 'incitement' again.
 
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And at last protesters are getting smarter:

Victorians have signed up in the thousands to place a pair of boots outside their front doors on Sunday in protest of Premier Daniel Andrews.

After mass arrests at an anti-lockdown protest over the weekend, fringe political group Victoria Forward created a Facebook event on Wednesday called “Give Dan The Boot: Protest From Home".
Could this soon be followed by a massive 'boot buying' surge?

As some more shady operators go on a collection spree akin to the much maligned glaziers' myth...
 
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I havent been prescribed penicillin because of Dad, just in case. It is likely that this is an inherited thing?

I'm sure there is a genetic component, but even though my Dad's Dad had the severe allergy, my Dad and sister are not allergic, guess I just drew the short straw. I'm not really interested in begin tested to see if I've outgrown it, as there are lots of other effective antibiotics available. Now if I had a condition where penicillin was the only known cure then maybe Id reconsider. Right now having seen the effects it had on my Pop the risk of health issues from being dosed again even under medical supervision isn't worth it for me. But Im glad its a cheap option for others.
 
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