Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[dajop]

Don’t know if I’d call that a choice... I’m not opposed to the idea, but it is the sort of thing that throws the question of civil liberties into the spot light.

It probably would open the debate, but surely, it's far better to affect the civil liberties of a small number of people quite dramatically for 2 weeks, than 5,000,000 people for months on end. It's not as if people living in Melbourne haven't seen an impact on their civil liberties.

 

[love_the_life]

ACT must be feeling confident - they are easing more restrictions from Monday.

though they still have the 4 sq m rule in so maybe the businesses open won't be too crowded. And I don't expect to see you at any of them.

 

[Must...Fly!]

it could be a choice (a ankle bracelet or even wristband ... and definitely not a permanent tag) ... you can self isolate at home and wear the bracelet for two weeks or you can be locked in a hotel with (hopefully much better trained) security guards and not go outside for two weeks.

Parliament hasn't sat for 7 weeks in Victoria aside from that farcical upper house sideshow on Tuesday where the government tried their best to shut it down and refused to answer any questions.

So who decides the above suggested methods to monitoring the location of citizens? The government, unilaterally, without any scrutiny or query?

 

[RooFlyer]

Just replying here on my current page. A few more pages to catch up on

His prediction being the same number of the firt tweet I reposted. You can feel free to disregard tweets from both people if you like.

Well, personally, I disregard 'tweets' from just about everyone - Twitter being the sewer that it is. Drron occasionally posts some funny/compassionate videos worth watching.

So The Australian has stated that they have actually obtained the Victorian Government estimates and modelling. As this has now been denied by the various Health Officer's today obviously The Australian must now have a huge scoop that they will publish tomorrow.

If there is a scoop, it was published today (note the attribution):

I don't subscribed to The Australian, but the part I can see is:

Covid peak still weeks away: secret modelling
The Victorian government’s own estimates, obtained by The Australian, show the average number of new cases is not expected to decline until the last week of August
Is this accurate or not?

If its about something weeks away, I guess we'll only know whether its accurate or not in a couple of weeks. The 'secret modelling' they refer to is the unrealeased Vic government's, not something separate.

However no one else seems to have seen this Victorian Government modelling, and all when asked about it have directly denied its existence (and not just avoided the question).

That's why the Oz called it an 'exclusive'. The media likes doing that. of course the Vic Government could release its modelling ... and I think i saw mention today that they would. Sorta like Cedar meats. Only reveal things when the media finds out.

 

[dajop]

So who decides the above suggested methods to monitoring the location of citizens? The government, unilaterally, without any scrutiny or query?

It is a blight on our state and federal governments cannot find a mechanism to allow virtual sittings of Parliament, or at the very least something creative to allow parliaments to sit by using the space occupied by the senate and the house (or the assembly and the council in Vic) and have one house sit at a time, split between the two houses, televised and sharing the same PA system. It is 2020 not 1920! Private industry is managing perfectly adequately to run multinational businesses with the only people in the same room the ones physically producing the goods, why can't government find a way to do it? I guess, to flip a well known saying around, where there's a will not to do something, there' never going to be a way.

That aside, the Victorian government has already unilaterally severely eroded the rights of its citizens. It's said 100'000s don't have a right to go to work and earn a living. It won't allow 6.35 million people to visit their parents/children/siblings/close friends unless they live in the same household. It won't let 5 million people go further than 5km beyond their homes to exercise or shop. It won't let people get married unless some sort of compassionate grounds to do so. But that's OK, as long as we don't give people the option of wearing tracking bracelets?

f the government is the problem and it is voluntary tracking, maybe we could outsource the tracking to Google, Facebook or Apple, after all many people already voluntarily allow them to track their every movement.

 

[I love to travel]

Covid live is showing that Tasmania and SA did not report today.

 

[RAM]

Yes the 3rd day pattern is a weird one.

You certainly see patterns in some overseas countries/states . ie Sweden.

View attachment 224330

Don’t know if I’d call that a choice... I’m not opposed to the idea, but it is the sort of thing that throws the question of civil liberties into the spot light.

It worries me to think how this would have gone had it been Ebola or something more serious that has a high fatality rate.

Perhaps given the response of seemingly 100s of people Australia-wide - if CV demonstrated a signifcantly higher fatality rate - that may be a question you would not have to be asking....

With the electronic ankle bracelets - Taiwan has a somewhat more modern approach & that seems to have worked brilliantly which is why the Taiwanese economy is the strongest in the world currently.

Also helped that Taiwan intelligence knew about this last December and after much 'pressure' were allowed to send a medical team to Wuhan in January. Despite being 'managed' by the CCP - they saw enough & on the day of their return Taiwan ceased all direct flights to Wuhan (multiple every day) and imposed major restrictions on all flights from China.

The WHO rejected all information offered by Taiwan as 'it was not a member'.

Not a member due to China blocking its application & China's compliant country friends also blocked Taiwan.

Hopefully both Australia & the rest of the world DO learn some lessons across the board - ranging from cost cutting through to not appeasing bullies.

 

[jakeseven7]

Coronavirus spread NSW: Virus warning for Sydney Westfield


A public health alert has been issued for three more venues in western Sydney, including a major Westfield shopping centre after a man in his 20s was diagnosed with COVID-19.

The man is a close contact of a case associated with the growing Mounties club cluster.

“He attended several venues while infectious and if any people develop symptoms they are to get tested and self-isolate immediately,” NSW Health said in a statement.

Coronavirus NSW: Virus warning for Sydney Westfield

A public health alert has been issued for three venues in western Sydney after a man in his 20s was diagnosed with COVID-19.

www.news.com.au

 

[Pushka]

Covid live is showing that Tasmania and SA did not report today.

SA just did. One positive related to the cluster that started a week ago with a returned essential worker from Vic. He isolated in a hotel but his cleaner developed it. Presumably his female partner developed it as did her friend. Now another woman has developed it as the first woman attended Adult College. Today the college has closed and 70 close contacts (several overlap) are now in hotel quarantine and the rest of the school, staff and teachers are in self iso until next Saturday week. All known sources so not too random.

 

[I love to travel]

SA just did. One positive related to the cluster that started a week ago with a returned essential worker from Vic. He isolated in a hotel but his cleaner developed it. Presumably his female partner developed it as did her friend. Now another woman has developed it as the first woman attended Adult College. Today the college has closed and 70 close contacts (several overlap) are now in hotel quarantine and the rest of the school, staff and teachers are in self iso until next Saturday week. All known sources so not too random.

@Pushka thanks. T minus 2 for me and T minus 4 for your son so lets hope this doesn't spook Qld CHO or Premier.

 

[Pushka]

@Pushka thanks. T minus 2 for me and T minus 4 for your son so lets hope this doesn't spook Qld CHO or Premier.

I'm hoping not. Its the unknown cases that get them worried. And they have now isolated in hotels those at risk so . He already has Aust Govt permission to exit Australia so just has to finalise the visa now. They do seem to give a couple of days grace so if needed we send him on the plane ASAP.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

If there is a scoop, it was published today (note the attribution):

The attrition is my point. The Federal HO, and the Victorian DHO, The Federal Health Minister, and dan all deny that it is Vic Gov.

Also note that today was not over 700 cases

View attachment 224412



If its about something weeks away, I guess we'll only know whether its accurate or not in a couple of weeks. The 'secret modelling' they refer to is the unrealeased Vic government's, not something separate.

I never said it was separate. I stated that based on the comments on public record that it simply does not exist. The Australian also were not accurate in what they claimed with respect to BKM and the apartment towers.

So do you really believe that all those I listed above are telling blatant lies then?

All firmly denied that there is any such modelling /graph. Even the new guy Prof Cheng, less than a week into the job is willing to lie on record too.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Today's Vic DHHS Report.

Media release
6 August 2020

Victoria has recorded 471 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 13,469.
The overall total has increased by 434, due to 37 cases being reclassified – largely due to duplication.

Within Victoria, 81 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and 390 are under investigation.
There have been eight new deaths from COVID-19 reported since yesterday. They include two men in their 60s, three men and two women in their 80s and a woman in her 90s.

Four of the eight new deaths are linked to known outbreaks in aged care facilities. To date, 170 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.
In Victoria at the current time:

• 2388 cases may indicate community transmission
• 7449 cases are currently active in Victoria
• 575 cases of coronavirus are in hospital, including 42 in intensive care
• 5628 people have recovered from the virus
• More than 1,746,900 tests have been processed – an increase of approximately 25,000 since yesterday.

Of the total cases:

• 12,353 cases are from metropolitan Melbourne, while 804 are from regional Victoria
• Total cases include 6534 men and 6816 women
• Total number of healthcare workers: 1388, active cases: 810
• There are 1435 active cases relating to aged care facilities.

Active aged care outbreaks with the highest coughulative case numbers are as follows:

• 169 cases have been linked to Epping Gardens Aged Care in Epping
• 160 cases have been linked to St Basil’s Homes for the Aged in Fawkner
• 144 cases have been linked to Estia Aged Care Facility in Ardeer
• 117 cases have been linked to Kirkbrae Presbyterian Homes in Kilsyth
• 94 cases have been linked to Estia Aged Care Facility in Heidelberg
• 83 cases have been linked to Arcare Aged Care Facility in Craigieburn
• 80 cases have been linked to BaptCare Wyndham Lodge Community in Werribee
• 72 cases have been linked to Aurrum Aged Care in Plenty
• 72 cases have been linked to Glendale Aged Care Facility in Werribee
• 68 cases have been linked to Outlook Gardens Aged Care Facility in Dandenong North.

Cases currently linked to key outbreaks are as follows:

• 196 cases have been linked to Bertocchi Smallgoods in Thomastown
• 164 cases have been linked to Somerville Retail Services in Tottenham
• 122 cases have been linked to JBS Brooklyn
• 89 cases have been linked to Melbourne Health Royal Park Campus
• 83 cases have been linked to Australian Lamb Company in Colac
• 59 cases have been linked to Woolworths Distribution Centre Mulgrave
• 44 cases have been linked to the Linfox warehouse in Truganina
• 43 cases have been linked to Nino Early Learning Centre in Bundoora
• 37 cases have been linked to Catholic Regional College in Sydenham
• 31 cases have been linked to Golden Farms Poultry in Breakwater
• 30 cases have been linked to Respite Services Australia in Moonee Ponds
• 29 cases have been linked to Ingham’s Thomastown.

The department is also looking into cases linked to Caroline Chisholm Catholic College in Braybrook. More information will be available in coming days as investigations continue.

 

[jeza]

Possible answer to where the Australian got it's modelling from.

https://twitter.com/SougPaul

metamodern

metamodern.net

 

[lovetravellingoz]

New Cases today outside of Melbourne GMMA
Geelong down, but Greater Bedigo has had its worst day yet.

Greater Geelong 5
Colac Otway 5
Mitchell 3
Greater Bendigo 10
Ballarat 3
Latrobe 2
Glenelg 3
Mount Alexander 1
Murrindini
East Gippsland 1

Cases by LGA - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Australia

covidlive.com.au

 

[RooFlyer]

So do you really believe that all those I listed above are telling blatant lies then?

All firmly denied that there is any such modelling /graph. Even the new guy Prof Cheng, less than a week into the job is willing to lie on record too.

Good on 'em. I have no idea and frankly not much care. Words can be easily chosen. Why do you say that Cheng is willing to lie? He seems like a nice man.

I really don't understand the sensitivity here. A media outlet says it has government info that the government hasn't released and government denies it. Not new, not uncommon. It might be a draft or a 'non preferred' version. If the government released its report, there would be no story and no contention.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Possible answer to where the Australian got it's modelling from.

https://twitter.com/SougPaul

metamodern

metamodern.net

Paul Soug
is with
Katrina Gotsis
and
8 others
.
19h ·
I've been outed.
I'm the only one left in Australia who remembers non linear Lorenz statistical analysis "When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future"
Apparently I am the "Victorian government" official data modeller. My map got "leaked" in "The Australian". They could've asked, I would have given them the raw data.
So, like... who do I invoice? If someone from high up is watching and believes my modelling is the best out there, then listen here... gps tower tracking cell phone pings will reveal where people have been, and who the super spreaders are. #Data is #King and #Queen
If you don't know how to map them, call me. 24/7
#COVID19Vic




Thanks for that. The Australian strikes again!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Good on 'em. I have no idea and frankly not much care. Words can be easily chosen. Why do you say that Cheng is willing to lie? He seems like a nice man.

I really don't understand the sensitivity here. A media outlet says it has government info that the government hasn't released and government denies it. Not new, not uncommon. It might be a draft or a 'non preferred' version. If the government released its report, there would be no story and no contention.

What sensitivity? I just like accurate facts.

The graph was debunked by many, both Federally and in Vic Gov and you refuse to believe it just because The Australian attributed it to the Victorian Government.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The attrition is my point. The Federal HO, and the Victorian SHO, The Federal Health Minister, and dan all deny that it is Vic Gov.

Also note that today was not over 700 cases




I never said it was separate. I stated that based on the comments on public record that it simply does not exist. The Australian also were not accurate in what they claimed with respect to BKM and the apartment towers.

So do you really believe that all those I listed above are telling blatant lies then?

All firmly denied that there is any such modelling /graph. Even the new guy Prof Cheng, less than a week into the job is willing to lie on record too.

The new Deputy CHO said he could not find any such modelling, so I would not call that blatantly lying. The new Deputy CHO said:

"I first went to check our internal modelling. I also checked with the Commonwealth, with Brendan Murphy's team.

"We can't find anything that looks like that.

They all had 12 hours overnight notice of this news story, so research staff etc to the press conference had plenty of options to develop a response. (Ie get on the front foot, stay defensive).

I would have preferred if someone preferably the Vic Premier comes out with their current modelling - that would have removed any doubt. As I said I passed on today’s conference (so relying on limited reporting), but Vic Government didn’t say what their figure is.

in any case, what I took from the Australian regardless of accuracy and the VictorianGovernments response is that the modelling show there will be an increase of the next week and a half.

I think what the Victorian Government has said it will releasemodelling when some more data on Stage 4 effect is on hand, quoting Vic Premier:

"So I can only be frank with you — in terms of releasing modelling, modelling gets better and more accurate every day that we have stage 4 going.

"So as stage 4 continues, if we cannot only be reporting the actual data but if you — I think you understand if you can give us a little bit more time to then input that actual data, then that's the assumptions that the model is built on and the model will be far more accurate."

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Qld's story from today is actually better than that. Yesterday's positive, which was an unknown source, has tested negative on her second test - basically her first test was a false positive. Which is a very good thing as there's no unexplained chain of transmission sitting with her...

update on Qld case from yesterday...


COVID-19 CASE UPDATE: A serology test for a 68-year-old Ipswich woman initially diagnosed with COVID-19 has come back negative. The follow-up test was ordered after her first PCR test returned a positive result and her second test returned a negative result.