Virgin Australia Financially Secure? [Now in Voluntary Administration]

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have heard that today the 4 shortlisted will have phone meetings with VA management love to be a fly on the wall at both ends lol
 
I'm not sure if the Administrators are being 'flogged' in many places other than forums like this one, are they? (but I have been light-on for serious - non internet - news lately).

I don't think AFF are flogging the administrators, the media are, fueled by their 'sources'
 
I think the administrators are doing their best to get a deal that will be approved by creditors.

This is very different to what the best outcome for a potential bidder is. The administrators don’t work for the bidders and never will.
 
AFF may be relevant to its members and occasionally might have some influence here and there but I seriously doubt the Administrator would care two hoots about what's been blogged here.
It'd take them till August to read through the 2,945 posts here. It's quite funny to go back to the very first post in February...

A legitimate question. I’m not scaremongering!
 
It'd take them till August to read through the 2,945 posts here. It's quite funny to go back to the very first post in February...

I remember vaguely around the time of the Ansett collapse the "it will never happen" crowd.

Oh and the "we're saved" when "AN2" started flying.
 
AFF may be relevant to its members and occasionally might have some influence here and there but I seriously doubt the Administrator would care two hoots about what's been blogged here.

Oh there is one with influence, that gave us all big heads up early on about what was happening - but they excused themselves at a point in time, I think due to conflicts ;)
 
.. The continuing travel lock-downs by the states, being extended by months, which is even going against advice from the Medical Officers, is probably contributing to cash projection shortfalls...

You're correct in that the continuing state lockdowns (Qld, WA, SA and Tas) 'go against' what the Chief Medical Officer for Australia and his Deputy have recommended.

Unfortunately though this is a State matter, and in the last 24 hours the WA Premier mouthed off about reopening his state's borders being 'months off', and that state's CMO released some limited information to back this up.

I can see both sides of the argument but probably the national (Commonwealth) view ought have primacy because there's that health protection committee on which all these CMOs (down I think to the two mainland territories) sit.
 
You're correct in that the continuing state lockdowns (Qld, WA, SA and Tas) 'go against' what the Chief Medical Officer for Australia and his Deputy have recommended.

Unfortunately though this is a State matter, and in the last 24 hours the WA Premier mouthed off about reopening his state's borders being 'months off', and that state's CMO released some limited information to back this up.

I can see both sides of the argument but probably the national (Commonwealth) view ought have primacy because there's that health protection committee on which all these CMOs (down I think to the two mainland territories) sit.

So how hilarious and ironic, QLD governments (desperate to keep VA2 based in QLD) bumbling approach to opening borders (or not) is actually screwing VA1 deeper into the ground and making them less and less attractive to buy....

Mmmmm
 
So how hilarious and ironic, QLD governments (desperate to keep VA2 based in QLD) bumbling approach to opening borders (or not) is actually screwing VA1 deeper into the ground and making them less and less attractive to buy....

Mmmmm
How do you figure that?
 
How do you figure that?

I would figure that delaying substantial flying by months means greater losses for VA, making it potentially more costly to acquire (and to run afterwards), therefore less attractive. Unless of course a buyer just wants an expired carcass, which isn't out of the question.
 
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You're correct in that the continuing state lockdowns (Qld, WA, SA and Tas) 'go against' what the Chief Medical Officer for Australia and his Deputy have recommended.

Unfortunately though this is a State matter, and in the last 24 hours the WA Premier mouthed off about reopening his state's borders being 'months off', and that state's CMO released some limited information to back this up.

I can see both sides of the argument but probably the national (Commonwealth) view ought have primacy because there's that health protection committee on which all these CMOs (down I think to the two mainland territories) sit.
I think if they don’t open soon there will be a constitutional challenge as the health issue is no longer justification for the closures. S 92 of the constitution covers this from a trade perspective. Pauline Hanson is threatening it already.
 
I would figure that delaying substantial flying by months means greater losses for VA, making it potentially more costly to acquire (and to run afterwards), therefore less attractive. Unless of course a buyer just wants an expired carcass, which isn't out of the question.

Exactly what Rooflyer said.

Any government decisions keeping borders closed now burns more VA1 cash and makes them less attractive option to buy.

Additionally it means even if bidders do
suck up and buy an even more cash depleted VA1, they will be even more nervous they are buying a business that they cannot switch on to even TRY and earn some $ because they aren’t allowed to, due to travel restrictions. Can we start flying in June, July, September?!

So every single DAY these decisions are muddled around and deferred, not only by QLD government but the other states too, namely WA and SA - it drives another nail in the coffin of VA.

I don’t think the QLD government has quite made that connection yet, I think their heart is in the right place but I don’t think their head has the capacity to join the dots.
 
Exactly what Rooflyer said.

Any government decisions keeping borders closed now burns more VA1 cash and makes them less attractive option to buy.

Additionally it means even if bidders do
suck up and buy an even more cash depleted VA1, they will be even more nervous they are buying a business that they cannot switch on to even TRY and earn some $ because they aren’t allowed to, due to travel restrictions. Can we start flying in June, July, September?!

So every single DAY these decisions are muddled around and deferred, not only by QLD government but the other states too, namely WA and SA - it drives another nail in the coffin of VA.

I don’t think the QLD government has quite made that connection yet, I think their heart is in the right place but I don’t think their head has the capacity to join the dots.
The borders being closed and VA being in adminstration have nothing to do with one another other than Covid 19. And a commercial decision shouldn't be the one that opens the borders if it's not yet safe to do so. In QLD we're expecting to be able to travel (and fly) in September. Deloitte may have that in mind, but I wouldn't expect it to be deciding factor of the potential investors.
 
The borders being closed and VA being in adminstration have nothing to do with one another other than Covid 19. And a commercial decision shouldn't be the one that opens the borders if it's not yet safe to do so. In QLD we're expecting to be able to travel (and fly) in September. Deloitte may have that in mind, but I wouldn't expect it to be deciding factor of the potential investors.

With respect, think you have missed the point. Of course this is a critical deciding factor with the bidders.

In their simulations, working out if VA1 is worth buying and for how much they are entering in a date where they can turn the key and start the business up to start trying to earn money. The later and uncertain the date, the more risk they take on, less cash available in the existing VA1 business.

At the moment there is no date because the state governments are been flapping around deciding if/when on the date because they have different views on their health strategies.

QLD originally said September but that was walked back yesterday by the premier.
 
With respect, think you have missed the point. Of course this is a critical deciding factor with the bidders.

In their simulations, working out if VA1 is worth buying and for how much they are entering in a date where they can turn the key and start the business up to start trying to earn money. The later and uncertain the date, the more risk they take on, less cash available in the existing VA1 business.

At the moment there is no date because the state governments are been flapping around deciding if/when on the date because they have different views on their health strategies.

QLD originally said September but that was walked back yesterday by the premier.
I understood the point. But VA probably won't be in a position to start flying the day after the investor signs on the dotted line,.

I think it's fair to say that as part of the bidding process a re-start date might be discussed, not only to determine how much cash may be needed between then and travel starting again, but they'll need time to get the staff, fleet and infrastructure ready for travel. September seems like a smart time, start of a new quarter and gives them time to get ready for re-start.
 
I understood the point. But VA probably won't be in a position to start flying the day after the investor signs on the dotted line,.

I think it's fair to say that as part of the bidding process a re-start date might be discussed, not only to determine how much cash may be needed between then and travel starting again, but they'll need time to get the staff, fleet and infrastructure ready for travel. September seems like a smart time, start of a new quarter and gives them time to get ready for re-start.

A prudent bidder will be doing valuations based on a range of economic recovery and 'resumption of business' scenarios. But they will have a probability-weighted 'most likely case' - in the old days we called this 'Monte-Carlo' simulation.

That's all very well, but if you see a bunch of Premiers running scared of importing the virus from another state, and keeping their borders closed as a result, what will a prudent bidder put into their model to account for Queensland, WA etc probably closing their borders again if the virus pops up again, later - which I think we all acknowledge will happen? September re-open or not ... do they also bank/cost/value anticipating a December closure, January opening, June closure, August opening? Uncertainty - that's the problem with the current policy and uncertainty breeds great caution when you are buying an almost-broke business.

The problem is the Premiers are going for 'elimination', which is a great ambition, but impractical I think and introduces terrible economic uncertainty in the case of a future (small) outbreak.
 
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