2019 Federal Election Discussion

[vetrade]

Nothing to do with lowering the standards for issuing loans then?

No, nothing at all. I'm sure anyone who's been to a bank for finance in the last 12 months is well aware of how all the banks are insisting on evidence of very strong cash flows to service a potential loan. The hurdles to qualify for a loan have never been higher.

 

[cove]

APRA are easing back. Those applications won’t all get approved. Some will have credit card debt, some will have student loans and some may have AfterPay or Zip Pay issues to cut down what can be lent.

 

[Isochronous]

APRA are easing back. Those applications won’t all get approved. Some will have credit card debt, some will have student loans and some may have AfterPay or Zip Pay issues to cut down what can be lent.

Although since Afterpay and Zip say they're technically not lenders/credit providers, I assume that means money owed to them doesn't show up on credit reports, so the banks will be relying on applicants to be honest about declaring those liabilities.

 

[amaroo]

No, nothing at all. I'm sure anyone who's been to a bank for finance in the last 12 months is well aware of how all the banks are insisting on evidence of very strong cash flows to service a potential loan. The hurdles to qualify for a loan have never been higher.

Completely agree with this. We've been CBA Private Banking clients for > 15 years and are now Private Office, have recently enquired about a few different prospects ..... inquisition comes to mind. In the end they offered to cough up so much more, but I'm thinking 1st home buyers and weak applications are well and truly stuffed!

If I was a greedy person I would've backed Shorten all the way.... the bargains would've have been like picking up roadkill. But the greater good overrules self-interest.

 

[cove]

Lenders who are thorough would discover AfterPay and ZipPay on loan applicants credit cards.
The Banking Royal Commission did not help the economy but it did uncover some nasty bankers and hangers on.
Getting the economy back to humming won’t occur overnight. Lots of small businesses will just disappear without a recession.

 

[serfty]

Laura Tingle possibly tries to make lemonade out of lemons:

The Coalition faces the same tricky situations as is did before the election

If Scott Morrison's job in this term of the Parliament is to run a better government, it is Anthony Albanese's job to switch the political focus on to the Coalition, writes Laura Tingle.

www.abc.net.au

One part:

As of Friday afternoon, the AEC currently has the seat count at 77 to the Coalition and 68 to Labor (compared with 76-69 at the last election), with a couple of seats still undecided.

For mine it'll be as indicated 77 - 68, anyway there is no mention of the Senate.

To cite Anthony Greene: (Election Preview - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation))

The government has a notional 73 seats in the House of Representatives. It needs to gain three seats to be returned with a bare majority, a uniform swing of 0.7.

Labor starts the election with a notional 72 seats, needing four seats on a uniform swing of 1.0%.

So, "Notionally", the ALP lost a nett four House of Representative seats in this election, not the 'status quo' being portrayed.

 

[cove]

I am back in Australia and am relieved that Shorten is gone. Victorians cannot see it just yet but Andrews is leading Victoria down the toilet just like Kirner did some years ago. I thought the Victorian Treasurer pulling $900 million from the Transport Accident Account was outrageous. Australians need facts rather than fiction in Budget honesty.

 

[ozfflyer]

Anyone know the best link to see the senate results ? When does vote counting end ?

 

[serfty]

Anyone know the best link to see the senate results ? When does vote counting end ?

ABC have a guesstimate.

Senate Results

Federal Senate Results 2019

www.abc.net.au

There's a button to be pressed by the AEC after close off of returns to run software that generates the results, not sure of the date.

 

[OATEK]

ABC have a guesstimate.

Senate Results

Federal Senate Results 2019

www.abc.net.au

There's a button to be pressed by the AEC after close off of returns to run software that generates the results, not sure of the date.

The AEC site says that the earliest the preferences can be distributed is 13 days after the election, which means it could come early this week.

 

[RooFlyer]

Labor takes Macquarie, Coalition takes one-seat majority

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

Scott Morrison is set to govern with a slim one-seat majority after Labor claimed victory in the NSW seat of Macquarie.
The incumbent, Labor’s Susan Templeman was 327 votes ahead of Liberal candidate Sarah Richards on Monday afternoon, with under 500 votes still to be counted.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese tweeted his congratulations to Ms Templeman, who retained the seat despite a 2.02 per cent two party preferred swing against her.

 

[CaptJCool]

Labor takes Macquarie, Coalition takes one-seat majority

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

349 votes ahead

93.7% counted so very little outstanding ballots if any...
Well over 101,000 voters

I note these outer suburban Sydney seats appear to have 10,000 or more extra voters than say Warringah or Wentworth.

 

[OATEK]

349 votes ahead

93.7% counted so very little outstanding ballots if any...
Well over 101,000 voters

I note these outer suburban Sydney seats appear to have 10,000 or more extra voters than say Warringah or Wentworth.

And 30,000 more than some seats in other states like Tas.

 

[RooFlyer]

Something new, and, I think, interesting:

Early voters supported Coalition (probably pay-walled)

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

Analysis of voting in the 20 most marginal federal electorates has punched a hole in the theory there was a surge to the Liberal and Nationals parties on election day.
Australian Election Commission data in the 20 closest seats reveals that, in 17 of them, the Coalition received a better prepoll vote on a two-party-preferred basis than it received on election day. When combined with postal votes, this figure jumps to 19 seats.

There was widespread speculation throughout the election campaign that the record prepoll turnout of 4,271,276 ordinary votes would favour Labor because Australians were animated to throw out the government.

In fact, the Coalition fared better than Labor at prepoll voting in 13 of the 20 most marginal seats, with only Macquarie and Greenway in NSW, Lilley in Queensland, Cowan in Western Australia, Indi and Dunkley in Victoria, and Solomon in the Northern Territory favouring the ALP candidate.

When declaration of postal votes — early votes cast by electors outside their home division, in overseas diplomatic missions and at interstate voting centres — are added to the equation, there were 4,890,978 million voters. Prepoll votes made up 32.41 per cent of total votes cast at the election.

 

[cove]

Looks like Labor may be revisiting their tax policies which were likely to put the Australian economy into a swan dive. Those policies were way out of date for our economy which has been struggling.

 

[Andz]

all the liberal lies are now coming out, GDP not 2.3% but 1.8 %, dropped interest rates by 25 basis point, ECONOMY IS IN THE coughPER, worst than during the GFC.

I feel sorry for everyone who voted for these lies. At least Labor were honest about what they need to do to get us through the next 3 years.

Move to WA, the best economy in the free world.

Australian Economy | Business & Finance News | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site

From industry updates to comment and analysis. Find the latest breaking news for the state of the Australian economy.

www.news.com.au

 

[CaptJCool]

Hurry, hurry, last seats nearly declared and threads closing forever

Be sure to book your tic and bring popcorn for the closing chapters of election 2019

 

[OATEK]

Taking their time with the Senate count though.

 

[pauly7]

all the liberal lies are now coming out, GDP not 2.3% but 1.8 %, dropped interest rates by 25 basis point, ECONOMY IS IN THE coughPER, worst than during the GFC.

I feel sorry for everyone who voted for these lies. At least Labor were honest about what they need to do to get us through the next 3 years.

Move to WA, the best economy in the free world.

Australian Economy | Business & Finance News | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site

From industry updates to comment and analysis. Find the latest breaking news for the state of the Australian economy.

www.news.com.au

And WA has been doing what exactly the past few years? Perhaps experiencing what is ahead of the east

 

[burmans]

Although since Afterpay and Zip say they're technically not lenders/credit providers, I assume that means money owed to them doesn't show up on credit reports, so the banks will be relying on applicants to be honest about declaring those liabilities.

The Privact Act definition of who is a Credit Provider is quite a lot broader than many expect

"an organisation or small business operator that supplies goods and services where payment is deferred for 7 days or more"

so am not sure that AfterPay and Zip are "technically" correct. Many organisations who may provide payment terms (e.g. utilities, telco's etc.) but wouldn't under normal circumstances regard themselves as a lender are captured by this definition.