Weren't the 787's to replace 744's?

[moa999]

Qantas announced yesterday that the first two deliveries of 787 will allow 2 744 retirements & the remaining 6 x 787 will replace 3 x 744.
.

Where did you get that part. First delivery late 2017. The unrefurb (IE two) 747s not gone until mid 2018.

I don't disagree that the MEL 380 is at risk, or at least at risk of being made MEL-DXB only

 

[Flyerqf]

Where did you get that part

FLEET UPDATE
Qantas and Jetstar continue to adapt their fleet plans in response to market conditions and expectations. In the first half, Qantas purchased three Fokker F100 aircraft for routes previously operated by larger aircraft to enable capacity reductions in its resources sector operations. Jetstar added two leased Airbus A321 aircraft to meet demand in short-haul leisure markets.
The Group will defer delivery of Jetstar’s first Airbus A320neo aircraft until financial year 2019.
The arrival of Qantas International’s first two Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft in late calendar 2017 enables the retirement of Qantas’ two oldest 747s by mid-2018. A total of five 747s will be retired as eight Dreamliners enter the fleet.

 

[eminere]

FLEET UPDATE
Qantas and Jetstar continue to adapt their fleet plans in response to market conditions and expectations. In the first half, Qantas purchased three Fokker F100 aircraft for routes previously operated by larger aircraft to enable capacity reductions in its resources sector operations. Jetstar added two leased Airbus A321 aircraft to meet demand in short-haul leisure markets.
The Group will defer delivery of Jetstar’s first Airbus A320neo aircraft until financial year 2019.
The arrival of Qantas International’s first two Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft in late calendar 2017 enables the retirement of Qantas’ two oldest 747s by mid-2018. A total of five 747s will be retired as eight Dreamliners enter the fleet.

And source?

 

[mviy]

Qantas announced yesterday that the first two deliveries of 787 will allow 2 744 retirements

Well the first delivery is replacing the 747 on the MEL-LAX route isn't it?

 

[mannej]

And source?

Here you go - Media Releases - QANTAS GROUP FIRST HALF 2017 FINANCIAL RESULT - Qantas News Room

 

[comforttravel]

Well the first delivery is replacing the 747 on the MEL-LAX route isn't it?

The last 747ER on the MEL-LAX route (QF95/96) was on 25-Jan-17. Since then the sole MEL-LAX flight has been QF93/94 with an A380. Since the end of Jan-17, MEL-HKG QF29/30, has changed from a mixed 333/747 scheduling to solely 747/747ER

 

[serfty]

... Since the end of Jan-17, MEL-HKG QF29/30, has changed from a mixed 333/747 scheduling to solely 747/747ER

Hmmm ... my MEL/HKG journey in ~mid may recently changed to 330's each way.

 

[Himeno]

Qantas announced yesterday that the first two deliveries of 787 will allow 2 744 retirements & the remaining 6 x 787 will replace 3 x 744.

This to me almost confirms that the A380 service from MEL to LHR will be axed and replaced by the MEL-PER-LHR 787 flight.

This frees up 2 A380 to replace 744 which are being retired.

At this stage I'd be leaning towards the A380 will replace the 744 on MEL-HKG and SYD-HKG. (1 x 744 currently on each route)

The remaining 744s being retired i think will come from BNE - LAX (replaced by 787 to LAX and additional 787 service to DFW) and SFO downgauged to 787.

The only way that the already stated 787 routes can lead to 744s being retired is if the current A380 QF9/10 is removed, freeing up 2 A380s to then use on HKG routes using 747s.
The PER-LHR route is new, thus displacing no aircraft. The MEL-LAX route replaces a flight that was discountined a month ago.
The LAX-MEL-PER-LHR route would require at least 4 aircraft.

Thus we have half the current 787 order allowing retirement of only 2 747s only if MEL-DXB-LHR is cut.
In order to retire the other 3 non ER 747s, the remaining 4 787s would have to be placed on current 747 routes, such as SFO, LAX/JFK, YVR or HND.

 

[moa999]

And from what I've read on other forums QF could well get 3 787s during late 2017.
Would expect the first old 747 to go in Feb 2018 after the summer peak, then two more 787s in early 2019 allowing the 2nd 747 to go by mid-2018.

Yes the 787s will have to replace 747s on existing routes, with either increased frequency (1.5x) or added part routes

 

[Flyerqf]

The only way that the already stated 787 routes can lead to 744s being retired is if the current A380 QF9/10 is removed, freeing up 2 A380s to then use on HKG routes using 747s.
The PER-LHR route is new, thus displacing no aircraft. The MEL-LAX route replaces a flight that was discountined a month ago.
The LAX-MEL-PER-LHR route would require at least 4 aircraft.

Thus we have half the current 787 order allowing retirement of only 2 747s only if MEL-DXB-LHR is cut.
In order to retire the other 3 non ER 747s, the remaining 4 787s would have to be placed on current 747 routes, such as SFO, LAX/JFK, YVR or HND.

I think it's a certainty that BNE- LAX will go 787 so they can reduce capacity on the JFK leg. Not sure what loads are like on SFO but that looks like an obvious route for a 787.
Maybe they could also run a 2 weekly BNE LAX to make up some of the loss capacity.

744
SCL 4 per week (1 frame)
JNB and HND (3)
BNE-LAX 2 pw (1)
Spare (1)

787
MEL-PER-LHR (2)
MEL-LAX 6 pw (2)
BNE-LAX-JFK (2)
SYD-SFO 6 pw (2)

380
SYD-LHR (3)
SYD-LAX (2)
MEL-LAX (2)
SYD- DFW (2)
MEL-HKG (1)
SYD-HKG (1)
Spare (1)

 

[Himeno]

787
MEL-PER-LHR (2)
MEL-LAX 6 pw (2)
BNE-LAX-JFK (2)
SYD-SFO 6 pw (2)

That only works if PER-LHR will only use 2 aircraft. European routes from AU/NZ typically use 3 aircraft for daily flights. The only reason the current LHR flights use 5 aircraft is due to the retime of 9/10 with the aircraft spending less time in LHR. Depending on flight times, MEL-PER-LHR could require 3 aircraft.

You're forgetting to account for the weekly 747 used on QF11/12 on Tuesdays. Without that 747 flight, either QF11/12 or QF7/8 needs to be 6 weekly.
The SCL, JNB and HND flights use slightly more aircraft then you've implied, with the current timetable. (eg, the current SCL timetable does not work with only 1 aircraft in isolation)
What makes you suggest there will be an extra 2 weekly BNE-LAX 747 flight if QF15/16 and the JFK tag moves to 787?

 

[Himeno]

And from what I've read on other forums QF could well get 3 787s during late 2017.

Currently planned delivery dates for first 4 QF 789s
LN615 12 Oct 17
LN641 01 Dec 17
LN655 31 Dec 17
LN669 22 Feb 18

 

[Flyerqf]

PER-LHR will be 2 aircraft as it will be in conjunction with MEL-LAX which will be an evening departure ex MEL.

I suggested maybe an extra 2 flights for BNE to LAX to cover the lost capacity in moving to 787.

QF11 could still operate as a 747 on Tuesday with those frames I suggested.

Don't forget that JNB is 6 weekly too

 

[Himeno]

PER-LHR will be 2 aircraft as it will be in conjunction with MEL-LAX which will be an evening departure ex MEL.

The 787 MEL-LAX isn't an evening departure. It is mid afternoon (~2pm) ex MEL. ~10am arrival in LAX, ~11pm LAX departure and ~10am MEL arrival.
The PER-LHR flight could need 2 or 3 aircraft, depending on the flight times and how long it sits at LHR. Until more details about that flight are released, all that is know is that it needs to factor in the times for 95/96, the slots QF owns at LHR and the ~23 hour MEL-PER-LHR travel time.

The original point still remains, the first 4 787s will only allow 747s to be retired, if the A380 QF9/10 MEL-DXB-LHR is removed and those 2 aircraft used on existing 747 routes, presumably MEL/SYD-HKG.

 

[Melburnian1]

...if the A380 QF9/10 MEL-DXB-LHR is removed...

Many people are offering opinions as Cool Cat Phil reminded us. I have no idea yet, as it's up to QF's analysts, route planners, CEO and Board.

80 to 90 per cent of what I read has others suggesting that QF9 and QF10 WILL be discontinued, with some suggesting EK will commence an additional DXB - MEL - DXB flight to carry some of these passengers, especially given that the 787 MEL - PER - LHR and return has far fewer seats.

 

[Flyerqf]

The original point still remains, the first 4 787s will only allow 747s to be retired, if the A380 QF9/10 MEL-DXB-LHR is removed and those 2 aircraft used on existing 747 routes, presumably MEL/SYD-HKG.

Yes that's absolutely correct.

 

[moa999]

It's all speculation

Even before PER-LHR was announced it was suggested that QF9/10 loads were average some months.

The PER flight will undoubtedly take some traffic. Maybe it gets dropped entirely or replaced by EK (but one is a big loss in seats, other a big gain)

Maybe becomes a 787 route itself (don't think a 747 would reach), possibly with timing changed to match the SYD service, and maybe a continuation to CDG/FRA to match the 380 timing.

 

[Flyerqf]

I don't disagree that the MEL 380 is at risk, or at least at risk of being made MEL-DXB only

Can't see them even keeping MEL-DXB as that would still require 2 aircraft (same as LHR) given it's a 30 hr journey return.

 

[Flyerqf]

The 787 MEL-LAX isn't an evening departure. It is mid afternoon (~2pm) ex MEL. ~10am arrival in LAX, ~11pm LAX departure and ~10am MEL arrival.

I can't find any announcements regarding timings of MEL-LAX but I thought it was something like this:

MEL-PER 1545-1750
PER-LHR 1930-600+1
LHR-PER 1100-1000+1
PER-MEL 1130-1705


MEL-LAX 1915-1435
LAX-MEL 2355-1050+2

This schedule would require only 4 frames. Also QF1 would be changing to a late evening departure.

 

[TomVexille]

I can't find any announcements regarding timings of MEL-LAX but I thought it was something like this:

MEL-PER 1545-1750
PER-LHR 1930-600+1
LHR-PER 1100-1000+1
PER-MEL 1130-1705


MEL-LAX 1915-1435
LAX-MEL 2355-1050+2

This schedule would require only 4 frames. Also QF1 would be changing to a late evening departure.

~4+1.5+17+2.5=~25hours which means that MEL-xPER-LHR needs 3 frames