Weren't the 787's to replace 744's?

[Himeno]

I can't find any announcements regarding timings of MEL-LAX but I thought it was something like this:

MEL-PER 1545-1750
PER-LHR 1930-600+1
LHR-PER 1100-1000+1
PER-MEL 1130-1705


MEL-LAX 1915-1435
LAX-MEL 2355-1050+2

This schedule would require only 4 frames. Also QF1 would be changing to a late evening departure.

The MEL-PER-LHR times have not been announced in any way. Just speculation (and will remain so until QF releases bookings some time in April). The MEL-LAX times were from an AUSBT article posted shortly after bookings opened, as the qantas.com timetable wasn't working right when I went to look at it. (A look now at the QF.com timetable confirms the times I got from ausbt)

 

[moa999]

~4+1.5+17+2.5=~25hours which means that MEL-xPER-LHR needs 3 frames

Not necessarily. It might fit with another 16-20hr pattern, so you could use 4 frames for both services

 

[Flyerqf]

The MEL-PER-LHR times have not been announced in any way. Just speculation (and will remain so until QF releases bookings some time in April). The MEL-LAX times were from an AUSBT article posted shortly after bookings opened, as the qantas.com timetable wasn't working right when I went to look at it. (A look now at the QF.com timetable confirms the times I got from ausbt)

Fair enough - if that's the timing they keep for QF95/96, it will require 5 frames to operate MEL-PER-LHR and MEL-LAX, unless they find another route that fits in between like SIN.

 

[TomVexille]

Not necessarily. It might fit with another 16-20hr pattern, so you could use 4 frames for both services

Yes, but what rotation is the 789 going to do from LHR?

 

[oz_mark]

So presumably the MEL-LAX running 6 days a week, lets them squeeze some maintenance in on the 7th day?

 

[Flyerqf]

The 787 MEL-LAX isn't an evening departure. It is mid afternoon (~2pm) ex MEL. ~10am arrival in LAX, ~11pm LAX departure and ~10am MEL arrival.
The PER-LHR flight could need 2 or 3 aircraft, depending on the flight times and how long it sits at LHR. Until more details about that flight are released, all that is know is that it needs to factor in the times for 95/96, the slots QF owns at LHR and the ~23 hour MEL-PER-LHR travel time.

The original point still remains, the first 4 787s will only allow 747s to be retired, if the A380 is QF9/10 MEL-DXB-LHR is removed and those 2 aircraft used on existing 747 routes, presumably MEL/SYD-HKG.

QF95 is showing as a 2140 departure next year which should fit into the MEL-PER-LHR-PER-MEL-LAX-MEL rotation.

 

[Flyerqf]

More info is coming to light.

Qantas showed in their Investor Day presentation that the first 4 787 will enable retirement of 2 x 747s and the next 4 deliveries will replace 3.

The first 2 747s will come from SYD & MEL- HKG which will go 380 after QF9/10 is switched to the 787 via PER.

They have also announced that the frames 4-8 will enable a launch of a new destination.

To achieve the objective of retiring 747s and launching a new route, I suspect that BNE-LAX will go 787 and to make up lost capacity they'll launch a BNE - DFW on 787. Some connecting passengers from BNE would then route through DFW rather than LAX. It's also expected that MEL-LAX QF95 on 787 will switch to DFW if the JV between QF/AA is approved. This would result in SYD, MEL & BNE all having QF flights to both LAX & DFW.

They simply won't have enough frames to do a PER-CDG as has been speculated within the first 8 787s.

This is how the utilisation of widebodies (excl 330) could look after 8 787s arrive:


A380
QF1/2 (3)
QF11/12 (2)
QF93/94 (2)
QF127/128 (1)
QF29/30 (1)
QF7/8 (2)
Spare (1) - SIN seasonal & maintenance
12


B744
QF63/64/25/26 (3) 63/64 6pw
QF27 (1) 4pw
QF73/74 (2) 6pw
6


B789
QF15/11/12/16 (2)
BNE-DFW-BNE (2) 6pw
QF9/10 (2)
QF95/96 (2) 6pw
8

 

[Spongbob]

B789
QF15/11/12/16 (2)
BNE-DFW-BNE (2) 6pw
QF9/10 (2)
QF95/96 (2) 6pw
8

Great information Flyerqf, so thank you. Does this mean the BNE-LAX B787 (QF 15) will become the LAX-JFK (QF 11) sector, and JFK-LAX (QF 12) on the return leg?

 

[levelnine]

They simply won't have enough frames to do a PER-CDG as has been speculated within the first 8 787s.

So much for the 787 introducing revolutionary new routes to new parts of the world. Not a single new destination.

 

[Himeno]

Qantas showed in their Investor Day presentation that the first 4 787 will enable retirement of 2 x 747s and the next 4 deliveries will replace 3.

The first 2 747s will come from SYD & MEL- HKG which will go 380 after QF9/10 is switched to the 787 via PER.

They have also announced that the frames 4-8 will enable a launch of a new destination.

All of which had been speculated for some time. Is there a copy of this presentation online somewhere?

They simply won't have enough frames to do a PER-CDG as has been speculated within the first 8 787s.

That was debunked quite soon after it was speculated. If they did BNE-PER-CDG paired with BNE-LAX-BNE as was suggested, they wouldn't have any aircraft to run LAX-JFK-LAX.

A380
QF1/2 (3)
QF11/12 (2)
QF93/94 (2)
QF127/128 (1)
QF29/30 (1)
QF7/8 (2)
Spare (1) - SIN seasonal & maintenance

Leaving the only way to do the cabin refits as part of their C/D checks in MNL? (in which case, there would be no reason to wait until after the 787s arrive to start them)

B744
QF63/64/25/26 (3) 63/64 6pw
QF27 (1) 4pw
QF73/74 (2) 6pw
6

The 744 rotations seem to be a bit more complex then that. eg, If JNB was always paired with HND, it would need 4 frames as the HND flight sits in Tokyo for 17 hours.
The return "mission time" (SYD-SYD) for those flights are:
JNB: 28.25 hours
HND: 36 hours
SCL: 29.75 hours
SFO: 42.5 hours
They would also need to fit in the QF11/12 44.75 hours on Tuesdays in there.

 

[Flyerqf]

Great information Flyerqf, so thank you. Does this mean the BNE-LAX B787 (QF 15) will become the LAX-JFK (QF 11) sector, and JFK-LAX (QF 12) on the return leg?

Yes as they wouldn't have a 747 at LAX once removed from BNE

 

[Flyerqf]

All of which had been speculated for some time. Is there a copy of this presentation online somewhere?

http://investor.qantas.com/FormBuil.../file/presentations/QAN-Investor-Day-2017.pdf

That was debunked quite soon after it was speculated. If they did BNE-PER-CDG paired with BNE-LAX-BNE as was suggested, they wouldn't have any aircraft to run LAX-JFK-LAX.

Leaving the only way to do the cabin refits as part of their C/D checks in MNL? (in which case, there would be no reason to wait until after the 787s arrive to start them)

The reason they may wait is they can have some overlap where the new 787s and old 747s operate concurrently whilst refurbs take place.

The 744 rotations seem to be a bit more complex then that. eg, If JNB was always paired with HND, it would need 4 frames as the HND flight sits in Tokyo for 17 hours.
The return "mission time" (SYD-SYD) for those flights are:
JNB: 28.25 hours
HND: 36 hours
SCL: 29.75 hours
SFO: 42.5 hours
They would also need to fit in the QF11/12 44.75 hours on Tuesdays in there.

Based on your calculations, JNB and HND can be done by 3 aircraft (ie under 72 hours).

I think 11/12 goes to daily and some of the HKG from SYD or MEL could be A330 as they don't sell F on the A380 to HKG, like they do on LAX

 

[mviy]

The A330 is already used for some of the flights to/from HKG. I flew HKG-MEL last year on an A330.

QF will use the A380s for flights to SIN and HKG as seasonal demand justifies it. The F Cabin would be the Emerald City for J passengers on those flights.

 

[Himeno]

The A330 is already used for some of the flights to/from HKG. I flew HKG-MEL last year on an A330.

The 747 only went back to 29/30 at the end of Jan when the 2nd MEL-LAX was removed. The 330 is still used to HKG when demand has them run a 2nd MEL-LAX.

 

[oz_mark]

Leaving the only way to do the cabin refits as part of their C/D checks in MNL? (in which case, there would be no reason to wait until after the 787s arrive to start them)

I have read that the 'spare' A380 will be used to backfill the others as they cycle through the refit program.

 

[Himeno]

I have read that the 'spare' A380 will be used to backfill the others as they cycle through the refit program.

If both the A380s freed up by MEL-LHR changing are used for MEL and SYD-HKG, as suggested byFlyerqf's post, then there is no "spare" aircraft, other then the one in MNL undergoing heavy maintenance.

 

[Flyerqf]

If both the A380s freed up by MEL-LHR changing are used for MEL and SYD-HKG, as suggested byFlyerqf's post, then there is no "spare" aircraft, other then the one in MNL undergoing heavy maintenance.

Keep in mind that qantas rarely do refits separate to heavy maintenance. The 330 config took two years because they completed them when the planes were due to be in the hanger

The timing may be staggered so that one of the 744 stays until the A380 refurbs are done, delaying the A380 going on to one of the HKG routes (probably Sydney) as they'll want to keep MEL flights limited to 380/330/787 and BNE to 330/787 for crewing and operational reasons.

SYD will be last to see the 787 as it will be the last to lose 747

 

[flightobserver]

I've heard rumours that VH-OJM is set to be retired mid-2017, with QF 29/30 returning to A330. VH-OEB leaves the fleet around April 2018, but will continue to fly as a charter for the Constellation RTW tour. So I think we will see QF 127/128 go A380 then, with the second displaced A380 starting off the refurbs.

 

[Melburnian1]

Keep in mind that qantas rarely do refits separate to heavy maintenance. The 330 config took two years because they completed them when the planes were due to be in the hanger....

Are we certain that any seating refurbishment will be in MNL? How do we know QF won't fly these frames elsewhere for that sort of attention?

 

[Flyerqf]

Are we certain that any seating refurbishment will be in MNL? How do we know QF won't fly these frames elsewhere for that sort of attention?

They won't be done in Australia. BNE isn't big enough.

MNL is where A380 mx is done and the last reconfigs took place. Can't see why they wouldn't be done in MNL but you never know.