Worldwide Report on Award Availability

[QF WP]

Okay, first up, this is US-centric; but still of at least passing interest to a number of us that have US-based award accounts.

To quote Tim Winship's blog:

The great majority of frequent flyer miles are redeemed for domestic coach tickets, at the saver level—25,000 miles in the programs of most legacy airlines.
So, for the average traveler, a key determinant of a mileage program's value is the availability of saver award seats. And yet, there's no definitive data comparing the airlines' performance in this critical area.

Is a member of American's AAdvantage program more or less likely to be able to redeem his miles for a free ticket to San Francisco, for instance, than a member of United's MileagePlus program?

How do award-booking success rates vary among different routes, different classes or service, different times of the year? Which program best delivers what I want most? In the absence of such comparative data, choosing a mileage program is more like a cough shoot than a considered decision.

The closest to such a frequent flyer program scorecard is last year's award availability survey conducted by IdeaWorks. The company made 6,160 test bookings on the websites of 22 of the world's largest frequent flyer programs and issued a report showing their success rates in booking award flights, ranging from a high of 99.3 percent to a low of 10.7 percent.

This week, IdeaWorks issued a follow-up to that study, the 2011 Worldwide Report of Reward Availability, "based upon 6,720 booking queries made by IdeaWorks at the websites of 24 frequent flier programs during March and early April 2011. Travel dates spanned June through October 2011; with 20 top routes checked to assess reward seat availability."

The results, showing the percentage of successful award bookings for U.S./Canadian programs and the change from last year's results:

1. Southwest - 99.3 percent (No change)
2. Air Canada - 82.1 percent (-11.5 points)
3. JetBlue - 79.3 percent (New for 2011)
4. United - 71.4 percent (+2.8 points)
5. Continental - 71.4 percent (No change)
6. Alaska - 64.3 percent (-10.7 points)
7. American - 62.9 percent (+5 points)
8. AirTran - 47.1 percent (-20.8 points)
9. Delta - 27.1 percent (+14.2 points)
10. US Airways - 25.7 percent (+15 points)

As indicated, the test bookings were online-only, for a limited number of flights and routes, for a specific travel period. A different methodology and a larger sample would no doubt yield somewhat different results.

Such quibbles notwithstanding, there is considerable value in any legitimate attempt to measure the airlines' "generosity quotient" (as I like to call it), not least in reminding us that consumers are sorely lacking in hard data to inform their loyalty-program choices.

Those interested in buying the full report (USD$2,500) can click here, otherwise the abridged (12 page summary) can be found here.

Personally, I've not had any trouble with AAwards, but then again, mine weren't coach or ex-USA . YMMV

 

[QF WP]

2012 Report out now - to quote Tim Winship's blog:

For the past three years, industry consulting company IdeaWorks has conducted a study of the availability of award seats from the world's top airline frequent flyer programs.
The findings of this year's study have just been released. As in their previous studies, the researchers attempted to make award bookings on the airlines' own websites, for two travelers, on 280 different dates, at the restricted award levels. Specifically, the results reflect "6,680 booking queries made by the IdeaWorks Company at the websites of 23 frequent flyer programs during March 2012. Travel dates spanned June through October 2012, with top routes for each carrier checked to assess reward seat availability."

For the U.S./Canadian airline programs included, the results are as follows:
Award Booking Success Rate (change from 2011)
1. Southwest - 100% (+0.7 points)
2 (tie). AirTran - 87.1% (+40.0 points)
2 (tie). United - 87.1% (+15.7 points)
3. JetBlue - 86.4% (+7.1 points)
4. Air Canada - 78.6 (-3.5 points)
5. Alaska - 59.3% (-5 points)
6. American - 45.7% (-17.2 points)
7. US Airways - 33.6% (+7.9 points)
8. Delta - 27.1% (no change)

Last Minute Bookings
In addition to the above, the researchers reality-tested the conventional wisdom that airlines make more award seats available close to a flight's departure date. They test-booked awards for travel within 14 days of departure on American, Delta, United, and US Airways.

Compared to booking further in advance, the success rates for booking closer to the departure date changed as follows:

• American improved from 45.7 percent to 65.0 percent.
• Delta fell from 27.1 percent to 25.0 percent.
• United improved from 87.1 percent to 87.5 percent.
• US Airways improved from 33.6 percent to 42.5 percent.

So, unless you're trying to redeem Delta miles, there may indeed be an advantage in booking within 14 days.

Has the Elephant Left the Room?
Looking at the results for all 30 programs represented, the researchers were heartened by the findings.
Frequent flyer programs have been slowly but surely improving member rewards. Nine airlines scored above 80% for 2012, which is much improved from five airlines above 80% in 2010, the first year of the survey. Airlines are also improving alternate reward options. More and more now provide the ability to redeem miles or points for hotel stays, car rentals, and a growing array of merchandise and unique travel experiences. This trend is clearly good for everybody -- frequent fliers, airlines, and their stockholders.

Members of U.S. programs are likely to be less impressed with the industry's progress.

Although there has been some improvement in the results, it's been modest at best. Of the top four U.S. airline programs, three still show award-booking success rates below 50 percent. And while some airlines do indeed offer alternatives to flight awards, they tend to be of subpar value.

Award availability remains the elephant in the room of frequent flyer programs.

Reader Reality Check
How do IdeaWorks' results compare with your personal experience in booking airline awards?

The authors' abridged (6 page) report can be found here

I notice that QF have moved to 11th place, with 78.5% (up 3.6%).