What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[SYD]

Dropping today maybe US government shutdown averted for 2 weeks might have something to do with it

or US Fed holding interest rates steady again.

 

[SydneySwan]

I think the little Aussie battler got a touch of vertigo above 70 US cents and needs to rest before surging again.

 

[leadman]

Quoting from Mitsui Metals: " Market was extremely volatile across metals, and still is. Asian time zone all metals shot up then consolidated. Copper hit record level $14527.50 in Asia morning, fell sharply to $13500 level around 3pm London time, then closed at $13705."
Their daily LME reflects this;


Poor old lead, still the same. Big question is, will it be like the 2007 run, and that was all China and demand? This time demand doesn't seem to be there. Note it's the 3-month price, not CP.

 

[AuSammy]

Poor old lead, still the same.

As stable as the poster?

 

[ethernet]

AUD should increase above usd and below THB. So far it still hovers 50 pence, yet UK is really economically stressed. I don't care as all my cash went up because it was all in GOLD bought incrementally - never in one hit. I even sold my Cwth Bank shares at 170ish to all in on gold. I also cashed in my old super fund, as it could not earn much above 11%, and it takes 2 weeks to get the proceeds, some of which I will invest in MOO. If EU wont buy gas or fertilizer from Russia, then they will get scalped over price. Term deposits are for losers.

 

[RSD]

Quoting from Mitsui Metals: " Market was extremely volatile across metals, and still is. Asian time zone all metals shot up then consolidated. Copper hit record level $14527.50 in Asia morning, fell sharply to $13500 level around 3pm London time, then closed at $13705."
Their daily LME reflects this;
View attachment 493871

Poor old lead, still the same. Big question is, will it be like the 2007 run, and that was all China and demand? This time demand doesn't seem to be there. Note it's the 3-month price, not CP.

Volatility is the word of the week I think - and strangely the Orange One hasn't been a major cause of it.

@leadman do you have a link to that Mitsui information or is it only available by subscription?

As for lead - it is very stable, I don't know what price Rosslyn Hill need to get their Wiluna lead mining operation up and running again but it has been on care and maintenance for over 10 years now.

 

[Cossie]

Term deposits are for losers.

I find that that term "loser" quite offensive, I went though a period of my life where I had very little, enough to live on, but certainly not enough to invest.
Then after a period of hard work i was able to invest in term deposits and I earned quite a bit from interest, and paid my share of income tax, guess you don't remember the eighties when 15 to 17% return was the norm, so, just because it doesn't suit you, no need to name call and disparage what others have done.
I'm at the stage in my life where I can do anything I want, no children, I certainly don't need to be called a "loser" because I don't want to invest or I didn't invest in other things in other things besides term deposits.

 

[leadman]

Volatility is the word of the week I think - and strangely the Orange One hasn't been a major cause of it.

@leadman do you have a link to that Mitsui information or is it only available by subscription?

As for lead - it is very stable, I don't know what price Rosslyn Hill need to get their Wiluna lead mining operation up and running again but it has been on care and maintenance for over 10 years now.

In a way, the US situation has affected metal prices. Once you change fundamentals, you change the foundations. What is not reflected/quoted in the price is the "premium" over LME. And when tariffs were applied, metal prices didn't change much, but premiums went through the roof. Further, stocks were wound down "pre-tariffed" price; most have now been consumed.
Pb generally doesn't move now because over 70% comes from secondary sources (used batteries), produced from many smelters. Sorry, cannot comment on Magellan aka Roslyn Hill.
Send me a note privately about the data.

 

[drron]

Though there are reasons that do favour the 3 metals that rose.
Copper 3 of the largest copper mines had to close temporarily this year as they are all older mines. hence more likely to have equipment failures.\
Then there are AI data centres which will need up to 50000 tonnes of copper each.

Nickel will be increasingly needed for batteries. Nickel sulphite is used for batteries and growth has been rapid. Indonesia and China produce most nickel but from laterite ore which takes more processing and causes more pollution. China basically controls Indonesian production so producers in Canada australia japan and Europe getting a higher price as producing nickel sulphite product.

Zinc is fairly common with large deposits in Australia, China and North America. But the largest deposits likely to be in Iran. Maybe the cause for it;s rise.

 

[RSD]

Send me a note privately about the data.

Will do!

 

[RSD]

Though there are reasons that do favour the 3 metals that rose.
Copper 3 of the largest copper mines had to close temporarily this year as they are all older mines. hence more likely to have equipment failures.\
Then there are AI data centres which will need up to 50000 tonnes of copper each.

Grasburg in Indonesia suffered a large mud inrush, the one in Chile had an underground collapse, and the other closed due to civil unrest - very inconvenient for copper buyers that all three overlapped and none are back to full production.

 

[RSD]

I find that that term "loser" quite offensive, I went though a period of my life where I had very little, enough to live on, but certainly not enough to invest.
Then after a period of hard work i was able to invest in term deposits and I earned quite a bit from interest, and paid my share of income tax, guess you don't remember the eighties when 15 to 17% return was the norm, so, just because it doesn't suit you, no need to name call and disparage what others have done.
I'm at the stage in my life where I can do anything I want, no children, I certainly don't need to be called a "loser" because I don't want to invest or I didn't invest in other things in other things besides term deposits.

I moved my super fund option to cash deposits the day before DT announced his big beautiful tariffs on everything and everyone including the penguins back in April - I have been expecting him to cause a sharemarket correction any day but so far...

 

[leadman]

I think you mean sulphide, NiS, and it's a precursor for the batteries. And the Li guys are working overtime phase out Ni and Co.
The metals market is far more complex than mine closures these days; stocks (LME and consumer), traders, etc, make it a fun place to be in. I've been in the non-ferrous industry for 46 years now and I feel this is a "spec" market this time. Very different than 2007.

Between LME, SHFE and Comex there is about 800,000T of Cu in stock at the moment.

 

[RSD]

I think you mean sulphide, NiS, and it's a precursor for the batteries. And the Li guys are working overtime phase out Ni and Co.

And the new Sodium Ion batteries are trying to phase out lithium - especially CATL.

The metals market is far more complex than mine closures these days; stocks (LME and consumer), traders, etc, make it a fun place to be in. I've been in the non-ferrous industry for 46 years now and I feel this is a "spec" market this time. Very different than 2007.

Between LME, SHFE and Comex there is about 800,000T of Cu in stock at the moment.

I've heard that scrap metal merchants are haording their copper instead of selling it at the moment.

What is the rough normal of Cu stock between LME, SHFE and Comex? I've seen over the last few weeks that LME stock has been rising quite a bit but haven't seen info from the others.

 

[SydneySwan]

Hasn’t this thread gone a little off-topic?

 

[leadman]

Yes in a way, but if this metal run keeps up it will mean a stronger AUD, which has happened every time there is a "run".