What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[hummel]

Ridiculous comparison - cows produce milk every day which the Chinese babies consume every day - and that'll prolly go on for a while yet - absolutely impossible for NZ or Aus or whoever to produce sufficient quantities of milk going forward to satisfy the ever increasing Chinese demand. My lordy I take a suitcase full of baby formula to China each month for 2 diff babies - I could take a container load each month if permitted.

On that topic, no questions asked? I take protein powder over when I goto CAN and have been asked a few times what it is. The Chinese don't understand weight-training!

Could be a good little money spinner bringing in baby formula!

 

[dajop]

Left BKK airport a couple of days ago. The AUD was 22.68 which is the lowest I have seen in 12 years visiting Thailand. What's more disturbing is both the NZD and SGD were higher.

Interesting, as one who watches the SGD:AUD rate very closely, the SGD is still worth less than the AUD although it is coming close (~1.026 SGD:1 AUD seems to have been the low point to date). The FX traders in Thailand unsurprisingly must see more risk in the AUD, if an AUD buys less THB than a SGD does.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

Could be a good little money spinner bringing in baby formula!

Have looked at it a number of times but just cannot get supply in quantities. I am always a little concerned when baggage xrayed but seems now there is so much being taken in via personal luggage they are kinda just letting it slide.

 

[amaroo]

With a lower $ those fat cats in the domestic tourism industry can start living the dream - always winners/losers.

 

[hummel]

Indeed. The vast majority of Australians have most of their savings in AUD bank accounts and local stocks (and their houses, if you believe that's a form of saving).

Given we import pretty much everything we consume, however, that AUD drop is going to start biting soon - though the massive markup on most retail products here would suggest there's plenty of cream in the supply chain to start eating into before visible prices start going up.

So tell me, if everything was sourced from Australia would you be happy to pay Australian prices?

FWIW It's just retail that is being affected with the dollar dropping.

 

[whatmeworry]

Looks like insider trading again with the Aussie dollar.

Foreign exchange markets have again pre-empted the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision with the Australian dollar rising seconds before an RBA interest rates announcement, correctly foreseeing the outcome of the policy meeting and triggering the scrutiny of the securities regulator.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission said it would look into Tuesday's trading. The currency was fetching US76.99¢ late in the session after adding around 1 per cent.
"ASIC confirms it will investigate a spike in the Australian dollar shortly before the Reserve Bank's monetary policy decision today," it said in a statement. "The investigation will look at trading in the dollar prior to the RBA's interest rate decision statement at 2.30pm.

Australian dollar spike ahead of RBA sparks new ASIC probe

 

[drsmithy]

So tell me, if everything was sourced from Australia would you be happy to pay Australian prices?

Not quite sure how that's a relevant question, on multiple levels.

FWIW It's just retail that is being affected with the dollar dropping.

?

 

[cove]

0.8006 looks pretty good tonight for our currency against the U.S. Dollar but will it go higher?

 

[whatmeworry]

One analyst said short term 80c but later this year below 70c.

 

[footy99]

Some good numbers this month leading people to predict no more rate cuts. And US chat about rate rises getting muffled. Combo working briefly for AUD.

Might be right on both counts. But the RBA is desperate to get the AUD as far down as possible and has form to suggest rate cuts against communal predictions is a decent way to achieve that.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

But the RBA is desperate to get the AUD as far down as possible and has form to suggest rate cuts against communal predictions is a decent way to achieve that.

Yeah... because getting the dollar so low has worked brilliantly so far

 

[JohnK]

0.8006 looks pretty good tonight for our currency against the U.S. Dollar but will it go higher?

Not lower again. Please!

 

[hummel]

Yeah... because getting the dollar so low has worked brilliantly so far

Exactly. Let's push the AUD down, reduce rates.. oh cough property prices are now through the roof.

 

[drsmithy]

Exactly. Let's push the AUD down, reduce rates.. oh cough property prices are now through the roof.

Property prices have been through the roof for 15+ years !

 

[hummel]

Property prices have been through the roof for 15+ years !

Ok I wont argue that one!

I am biased as our business involves a lot of sourcing/importing AUD/USD has effected us a lot recently... but we made it work at .60c not so long ago so can't complain too much!

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Exactly. Let's push the AUD down, reduce rates.. oh cough property prices are now through the roof.

Well yes there's that... but remember it was also going to boost exports, and boost jobs?

All it seems to have done is increase the price of essentials such as a new fridge, or laptop for the kids to go to school... and slug the little Aussie battler trying to take their family for a holiday to Disneyland.

So where are all the huge profits going that the lower dollar was supposed to bring?

And what about the huge profits from inbound tourism/increased domestic tourism following the lower dollar? Seems they're not enough... we have an increased need to remove penalty rates. That seems entirely fair.

I think I liked it better the old way. When unemployment was lower.

 

[blackcat20]

Well yes there's that... but remember it was also going to boost exports, and boost jobs?

All it seems to have done is increase the price of essentials such as a new fridge, or laptop for the kids to go to school... and slug the little Aussie battler trying to take their family for a holiday to Disneyland.

So where are all the huge profits going that the lower dollar was supposed to bring?

And what about the huge profits from inbound tourism/increased domestic tourism following the lower dollar? Seems they're not enough... we have an increased need to remove penalty rates. That seems entirely fair.

I think I liked it better the old way. When unemployment was lower.

It's significantly increased the wholesale prices I pay but if I pass on the full increase my customers stop buying. So less profits for me.

 

[drsmithy]

Well yes there's that... but remember it was also going to boost exports, and boost jobs?

All it seems to have done is increase the price of essentials such as a new fridge, or laptop for the kids to go to school... and slug the little Aussie battler trying to take their family for a holiday to Disneyland.

So where are all the huge profits going that the lower dollar was supposed to bring?

And what about the huge profits from inbound tourism/increased domestic tourism following the lower dollar? Seems they're not enough... we have an increased need to remove penalty rates. That seems entirely fair.

I think I liked it better the old way. When unemployment was lower.

The mining boom isn't coming back. No more easy money. Best get used to it, because there's probably 5-10 years of pain coming.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It's significantly increased the wholesale prices I pay but if I pass on the full increase my customers stop buying. So less profits for me.

Now there's something the politicians didn't tell us!

 

[JohnK]

The mining boom isn't coming back. No more easy money. Best get used to it, because there's probably 5-10 years of pain coming.

Then cease immediately the ability for non-Australians to purchase property and manipulate the market to suit themselves.

No? Well let's see if we can make it even harder for more Australians to afford property in 5-10 years time.