What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

Have you all bought some? 0.9385 is looking good today and I think we have covered most of our US dollar needs thru to Christmas and I have been surprised the currency has not tested a lot lower. Where the Aussie dollar goes no one really knows.
 
RAM said:
Back in the 60s = correct answer

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Interesting thoughts. There are many winners (manufactures (if there are any left), exporters, tourism, etc) and losers (importers, consumers, rich people that own cars and use fuel ;) etc) if the dollar drops......

FWIW my post was generic in nature and leaned more towards the proposition that profitable business are critical for a healthy economy and low unemployment.
 
cove said:
Have you all bought some? 0.9385 is looking good today and I think we have covered most of our US dollar needs thru to Christmas and I have been surprised the currency has not tested a lot lower. Where the Aussie dollar goes no one really knows.
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I lose ~0.025 at Crown Exchange.
 
whatmeworry said:
With looming Scottish independence around the corner, the British pound has taken a beating.
Australian dollar hits highs against pound as Scotland mulls independence
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Can't help but think the quoted analysis is a load of rubbish(in explaining the change in value of the GBP so far this year) unless the Scottish referendum is having a spillover effect to the rest of Europe. Plot the AUD value for the last three months against the GBP, EUR and CHF the graphs are remarkably similar. Can't help but think pan-European factors are more at play than just the referendum impacting the pounds value.
 
amaroo said:
FWIW I wouldn't buy into the current housing market for all the tea in China.

Yesterday we put a couple of our investment properties on the market ... time to cash-in and park it into something with better returns. Will be on the sideline watching with interest!
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Same here. Just sold 1 property and will probably buy a blue chip or two for the dividend yield while waiting to see what the world is doing.
 
You should all start to worry. I'm about to leave for 8 weeks away. I've punted on the dollar staying up, so expect a plunge from next week.
 
Another analysis from XE:
"Aussie dollar payments are now the most cost effective since late March. Weights for the Down Under dollar emerged this week in a noticeable rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which sapped some of Australia’s favorable interest rate differentials, deterioration in Australian confidence surveys on businesses and consumers, and signs of weak demand from China as their imports contracted. The high-yielding Aussie would be among the world’s most vulnerable currencies to a sustained rise in U.S. Treasury yields which would reduce the greenback’s allure to be exploited as a funding currency for socalled carry trades. AUDUSD hit its low watermark against the greenback in 2014 in late January below $0.8700. More of a hawkish message from the Fed next week that increases the likelihood of a rate hike before mid-2015 would risk an accelerated fall for the Aussie."
 
Still with all the dollars that the us govt has printed over the last few years the new normal is going to be a lot higher than it used to be
 
moa999 said:
Still with all the dollars that the us govt has printed over the last few years the new normal is going to be a lot higher than it used to be
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It's already happened. Price of scarce goods have gone up on average 5 fold since early 2000s, last 6 months a few have come back a bit. Prices of anything made by China has plummeted. An electric kettle now costs less than 1/20th in CPI adjusted terms what it did in 1982!

Look at long term charts at price of oil, coal, iron ore, uranium, copper, tin, aluminum, etc.

As Australia does not earn enough (internationally) to pay off the interest bill on our overseas debt (as a whole) then the new normal is the same as the old unfortunately. Spin on the other hand does not.

Remember in 1999 EVERY broking house in Australia and internationally were saying sell resources and buy tech. The best was a document by the top rated Australian Strategist (200+ pages) that start with the exec summary along the lines that:

'Australian and indeed any resource company is a good excuse for introducing euthanasia for companies. They are fund management equivalent of Old Age Pensioners and their impact on the health and welfare budgets - only getting weaker with age, no hope of a return to their earlier vitality and a constant drain on finances.'

I kept that one.
 
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