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What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

cove

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Joined
Feb 15, 2008
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You are a lucky doer Foreigner.
One of the passengers I spoke to on QF11 yesterday was being paid in US dollars. I thought that would be sweet.
I now have a shandied US bank account with some at 0.7650 and the rest at 0.7014. I was charged $20 USD by my US Bank to receive the wired funds.
 

defurax

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Jun 27, 2012
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0.6893 at the moment. I guess the RBA will be happy. A few cents lower and they might hit their inflation target and possibly a boost in domestic spending/tourism.
 

vetrade

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Joined
Nov 1, 2011
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1,281
Even though there's no logical reason for any correlation between the $AUD/USD and our federal elections, it is usually the case that the $AUD falls in the 3 weeks leading into an election and then rises during the 3 weeks after. The post election rise depends on one party or the other being able to form a government - assuming this is the case, after this election the $AUD should be headed back to about $0.713 starting on Monday
 

Danger

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Joined
Jun 19, 2006
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Even though there's no logical reason for any correlation between the $AUD/USD and our federal elections, it is usually the case that the $AUD falls in the 3 weeks leading into an election and then rises during the 3 weeks after. The post election rise depends on one party or the other being able to form a government - assuming this is the case, after this election the $AUD should be headed back to about $0.713 starting on Monday
Very interesting.
 

ozfflyer

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Dec 22, 2018
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If unions win lower house today, AUD$ will drop immediately to 67, 66 & then maybe 65 cents. It's purely a confidence thing. Business generally has no confidence is union led parliament, unless the business has govt contracts. Right now mid market rates on xe.com 68.6 (updated every 60 secs).

Know a lot of people, who decided to pay for their international holidays later in the year, now rather than later.

Roughly if our dollar drops 1 cent, their holiday goes up very roughly 1.5%.

Might not sound much, but if it were to drop 3 or 4 or more cents, then it starts to get significant.

Also noticed lately, that quite a few switched on tour operators have said pay your balances early & there's no credit card fee.

Still can't believe stupid media has hardly ever mentioned the senate. Maybe it's because media generally doesn't like Clive Palmer, but it will be very interesting to see final outcome in the senate. If Clive gets, 2 or 3 senators & greens lose a few, it will be interesting, getting any legislation through, without Clives approval. Lots of horse trading. Don't know how Clive & Bull shitter will negotiate anything. Clive & Scomo negotiations should be much easier.

Latest polls this am, have a 1.5% differential, which is nothing, as swings always vary seats by seat.
 

Mrmaxwell

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Joined
May 18, 2007
Messages
1,079
1 AUD = USD $0.70 or THB 22 is madness. It wasn't that long ago I was getting THB 33 to the AUD.
I didn't believe you and had to look it up...what happened?

This combined with foreigners throwing cash around without care driving prices up all over makes Thailand very expensive. My first visit over a decade ago I was getting THB35 and of course pricing across the board was amazingly cheap.
 

pgsdiver

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May 16, 2012
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I just left Thailand today and to me it wasn't expensive at all, particularly compared with Singapore or Europe. BKK was a breath of fresh air (figuratively, only).
 

cove

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Feb 15, 2008
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Thanks but no thanks Flashback. I am happy to avoid a bout of illness by flying over those countries.
 

ozfflyer

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A nice rally would be helpful. I guess most of us would like to see that.
70 cents tomorrow ?

Below table of mid market rates from www.xe.com

165131

so from AUG last year til a few weeks ago AUD$ vs USD$ was basically in range 70 to 72 cents & only dropped off to 68 cents when it looked like union victory
 

Mrmaxwell

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May 18, 2007
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I just left Thailand today and to me it wasn't expensive at all, particularly compared with Singapore or Europe. BKK was a breath of fresh air (figuratively, only).
Compared to a decade ago it’s not cheap...but then again most tourist countries across the board are way up.
 

ozfflyer

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Dec 22, 2018
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Compared to a decade ago it’s not cheap...but then again most tourist countries across the board are way up.
it's actually cheaper now to ski in Colorado than when our dollar stronger, as resorts adjust their prices to suit AUD$. eg. lift tickets up to 94% off in Colorado for Australians & Kiwis who buy them at home, cf. at resort, from $37 u.s. / day for 1 adult & 4 kids total not each.
 

JohnK

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Mar 22, 2005
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41,098
I didn't believe you and had to look it up...what happened?

This combined with foreigners throwing cash around without care driving prices up all over makes Thailand very expensive. My first visit over a decade ago I was getting THB35 and of course pricing across the board was amazingly cheap.
I think you're spot on. Foreigners are throwing money around without caring. You can't compare Thailand to your own country and say to heck with it and spend up.

~10 years ago I wouldn't spend AUD20-30 to stay in some hotels in Pattaya such as Sawasdee Sunshine amd Welcome Plaza. Those same hotels are now AUD60-100 thanks to drop in AUD but also getting booked out by tour groups.

And 10 years ago some cheap golf that cost ~3000 baht including everything was just under AUD100 and I played 5 days a week. Those courses are now ~4500 baht or ~AUD200 and I can't justify that spend anymore.

Seafood platter in Walking Street was ~1000-1200 baht and now on some places over 2000 baht.

Some huge hits on the budget.
 

marki

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Joined
Feb 11, 2010
Messages
2,880
Wonder what will happen to AUD as a result of the election outcome?
A nice rally would be helpful. I guess most of us would like to see that.
Australian dollar shorts are at risk of an imminent squeeze and should be closed out in the likely event that the currency appreciates against the greenback when trading resumes on Monday.
As the Coalition closes in on a win in the federal election on Saturday, this has presented a surprise scenario for foreign-exchange markets guided by earlier polls favouring a Labor victory.
The Australian dollar finished the week at US68.68¢ at the conclusion of the New York session on Friday (Saturday AEST). Record low government bond yields, trade war spillovers and expectations of interest rate cuts as soon as the Reserve Bank's June meeting have weighed on the currency this quarter.
 

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