What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

Dollar will dive on rate cut Tues right? Well that what I told a friend with 7k bill pending.... Send now!
 
PLANT said:
Dollar will dive on rate cut Tues right? Well that what I told a friend with 7k bill pending.... Send now!
Click to expand...

If there is a rate cut then, yes, economic logic says the dollar will come off. I'd be very surprised if it dived. It's been a ridiculously resilient beast the past few months.
 
Danger said:
If there is a rate cut then, yes, economic logic says the dollar will come off. I'd be very surprised if it dived. It's been a ridiculously resilient beast the past few months.
Click to expand...

There's been a lot of rumour about a rate cut. I'd expect that to already be factored in to the AUD now? If it eventuates maybe a small drop in the AUD, but not a dive (unless the rate cut is bigger than expected).
 
PLANT said:
Dollar will dive on rate cut Tues right? Well that what I told a friend with 7k bill pending.... Send now!
Click to expand...
Why are we still talking about rate cuts? Obscene house prices has got to be first priority. Boost the AUD to USD2 and stop foreign ownership. Enough money laundering on our property.
 
Well I,m hoping for that rate cut, so I can pull all that cash out that pays a pathetic 2% in my savings account and pay of my home loan.

Damn U RBA and Hsbc
 
JohnK said:
Why are we still talking about rate cuts? Ob scene house prices has got to be first priority. Boost the AUD to USD2 and stop foreign ownership. Enough money laundering on our property.
Click to expand...

It doesn't make sense why the RBA thinks that by lowering again will solve anything. Only thing it does is keep the speculators out there speculating.
 
whatmeworry said:
It doesn't make sense why the RBA thinks that by lowering again will solve anything. Only thing it does is keep the speculators out there speculating.
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They should make noises about raising and then make cuts on the day (or vice versa perhaps) just to keep the speculators and 'experts' guessing... maybe flip a coin in the RBA meeting room?
 
The only central bank making noises about raising rates is the USA's. America is way ahead of every other Western economy in their business and monetary policy cycles. The "divergence" theme driving currency movements has not yet peaked. Money markets are pricing in a 50/50 chance of an RBA cut on Tuesday, which is reflected in the recent price action in AUD/USD and seems sensible. The AUD has more room to bounce in the short to medium term from here given investor positioning, but overall the trend is clearly down.
 
johnnyk said:
Well I,m hoping for that rate cut, so I can pull all that cash out that pays a pathetic 2% in my savings account and pay of my home loan.

Damn U RBA and Hsbc
Click to expand...

I don't know your financial situation but if you are not happy with your 2% why don't you offset your home loan and you will be effectively making savings off your loan.
 
I think the market is crazy - with input from CNN news bites and will the fed up or when.
I could look at relative fundamentals and flows, but would be wrong - going with the flow wins for now.
I think the $AUD will hover where it at 0.72 is as its discounted to the $CAD and all our indicators are 12% down.

The fake jobless USA recovery and employment number manipulation is also a joke.
USA has all levers to the floor to kick-start, and recently added cheap oil energy to fire inflation - but that has failed.
Then China devalued saying enough's enough - causing the fed to think twice - knowing Chinas response will be benchmarked on their $USD trade surplus which for an alleged recovery, is not actually growing. But hey, this linkage is not really looked at.
China is having to sell down USD's on outflows, making QE4 more difficult. If they had stones, the world would introduce a financial turnover / transfer tax.


The AUD is permanently shorted, and the hedge funds timing was right when they sold out of the ASX and aud and went home.

The Trick the USA is playing is pretending debtor countries wont pay - meaning their loans are duds, even though the USD is up 30% odd. Without inflation, these borrowers are firetrucked. The USD will probably gallop ahead, as long as defaults can be muddied and kept out of the headlines.

They can buy back in and make 12%, but they wont until resource demand and profitability returns. Printed money has to go somewhere - so hard resources - quality property land and farm rural for now.

A smart person would do futures and saddles - but when the whammy hits I expect paper 'guarantees' to be dishonored.
Physical silver and gold look good.
 
October jobs report in US (5% unemployment) provided rally for USD. The Aussie has been soft overnight to 0.7040.
 
Last week family member says will get some USD......yep fine.
Today says going to get it today doh doh doh doh!!!!
Like right on lowest rate in 3 weeks!
 
0.6573 euro it's ok just
 
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