Western Sydney Airport (WSI) Discussion

[HS-TQE]

I think the only sure thing is that QF, VA and JQ will offer domestic flights to BNE and MEL, Probably a handful of other domestic destinations in time. Although VA hasn't announced they will fly from WSI, which is not exactly a vote of confidence in the airport considering we're within 12 months of opening. Surely they can't afford to cede the entire market.

VA doesn't really have the aircraft for WSI, as VA's aircraft deliveries (7M8s and E290s) are largely fleet replacement for the F100s, A320s and the older 738s coming off lease for the next 12 months and VA hasn't exactly shown interest let alone enthusiasm in WSI in the past 12 months, as VA has highlighted their own concerns with WSI.

I don't see a Rob Peter to Pay Paul situation to enable VA to service a limited WSI schedule within their current fleet, so I can see a scenario where VA cedes WSI entirely to the QF group for the first 12 months at the most before eventually entering in either mid NS27 or NW27/28 with a limited BNE and MEL schedule, aircraft availability permitting.

 

[justinbrett]

VA doesn't really have the aircraft for WSI, as VA's aircraft deliveries (7M8s and E290s) are largely fleet replacement for the F100s, A320s and the older 738s coming off lease for the next 12 months and VA hasn't exactly shown interest let alone enthusiasm in WSI in the past 12 months, as VA has highlighted their own concerns with WSI.

I don't see a Rob Peter to Pay Paul situation to enable VA to service a limited WSI schedule within their current fleet, so I can see a scenario where VA cedes WSI entirely to the QF group for the first 12 months at the most before eventually entering in either mid NS27 or NW27/28 with a limited BNE and MEL schedule, aircraft availability permitting.

It wouldn’t take much. Even one aircraft could do twice daily BNE and MEL (The frequency QF serves MEL/OOL). Two aircraft and you’re at the frequency QF serves SYD/OOL. You’re telling me every other route has such high loads none of these would get a look in?

I don’t think it’s about capacity. If they aren’t a launch airline it’s probably more of a principled stance (due to costs), and/or inability to maintain SYD slots.

I still think VA would be shooting themselves in the foot to gift QFg a full year to capture market share at what will become a major airport. That is, unless they really believe WSI will be a white elephant.

 

[HS-TQE]

I don’t think it’s about capacity. If they aren’t a launch airline it’s probably more of a principled stance (due to costs), and/or inability to maintain SYD slots.

I still think VA would be shooting themselves in the foot to gift QFg a full year to capture market share at what will become a major airport. That is, unless they really believe WSI will be a white elephant.

I'd agree with the principled stance and VA unwilling to give up SYD slots when VA doesn't have the extra mainline aircraft.

I also don't see VA deploying an extra Alliance F70 or F100 to replace two current ex-BNE mainline aircraft rotations on other routes to enable a twice-daily BNE-WSI with a mainline 738/7M8 when it opens in NW26/27. Although if WSI does 'perform'' to expectations (or even overperform), I can see such a situation happening when the NS27 season starts at the end of March.

If WSI does end up 'underperforming' domestically in their first 12 months, Bain could probably use that to justify their initial 'stay out' of WSI stance.

 

[justinbrett]

I'd agree with the principled stance and VA unwilling to give up SYD slots when VA doesn't have the extra mainline aircraft.

I also don't see VA deploying an extra Alliance F70 or F100 to replace two current ex-BNE mainline aircraft rotations on other routes to enable a twice-daily BNE-WSI with a mainline 738/7M8 when it opens in NW26/27. Although if WSI does 'perform'' to expectations (or even overperform), I can see such a situation happening when the NS27 season starts at the end of March.

If WSI does end up 'underperforming' domestically in their first 12 months, Bain could probably use that to justify their initial 'stay out' of WSI stance.

The problem with that is QF will have a monopoly, it can put on token capacity with high fares, which will effectively stunt the growth of the airport. I can see lots of carrots and sticks by the government (and WSI) to make it a success.