Western Sydney Airport (WSI) Discussion

[HS-TQE]

But they were completely happy flying a 737 to Japan

When VA's HND operations was partially funded by Queensland Taxpayers through currently being phased out AAIF subsidy scheme., of course Bain were going to take the taxpayer cash.

WIthout the AAIF subsidy scheme by the Queensland Governmemt, Bain would've let the HND slot authroties lapse back to the IASC.

WSI-BNE/MEL is not high risk. It’s a sure thing, just a matter of frequency. Operating them once or even twice a day is a reasonable investment and could be done with a single aircraft.

The problem is some rusted on VA flyer out of SYD who lives in the west, switches over to QF/JQ because they don’t have the option of flying VA. VA’s market share is in the low 30s. You don’t improve that by sitting out major routes.

The question is which service(s) to cut out of BNE or MEL to fit in a twice daily WSI rotation, and the times will always not be ideal either.

If a midday BNE-TSV or a MEL-MCY makes more than a forecasted late morning/midday BNE/MEL-WSI for example, VA will not move the aircraft to WSI unless if the NSW Government throws enough taxpayer funded aviation fund subsidy money at VA in the same way the Qld Government did for VA's HND operations

 

[justinbrett]

VA will not move the aircraft to WSI unless if the NSW Government throws enough taxpayer funded aviation fund subsidy money at VA in the same way the Qld Government did for VA's HND operations

Like I said, my theory is they’re playing hardball to entice subsidies, but will end up serving it anyway regardless.

VA’s load factors aren’t at the stage where no route can be tweaked to accomodate growth.

 

[moa999]

WSI-BNE/MEL is not high risk. It’s a sure thing, just a matter of frequency.

Agree. But arguably we are better starting with less airlines and a decent frequency, rather than multiple airlines only flying once or twice a day.

I'm sure VA will open at WSI within the first 5yrs and get all the publicity associated to themselves.

 

[elanshin]

When VA's HND operations was partially funded by Queensland Taxpayers through currently being phased out AAIF subsidy scheme., of course Bain were going to take the taxpayer cash.

WIthout the AAIF subsidy scheme by the Queensland Governmemt, Bain would've let the HND slot authroties lapse back to the IASC.


The question is which service(s) to cut out of BNE or MEL to fit in a twice daily WSI rotation, and the times will always not be ideal either.

If a midday BNE-TSV or a MEL-MCY makes more than a forecasted late morning/midday BNE/MEL-WSI for example, VA will not move the aircraft to WSI unless if the NSW Government throws enough taxpayer funded aviation fund subsidy money at VA in the same way the Qld Government did for VA's HND operations

I'm sure they can jig their network so that the plane ends up at MEL/BNE overnight as the last flight of the day so they don't need to overnight at WSI until a more established network / base is set up. Just treat it as an outport during the day even if it's like a flight like MEL - WSI - MEL randomly in the day to see what the response is like.

QF Group can probably spare a plane or two network wise to set up overnighting at WSI. If they can overnight at AVV right now, I'm sure they can make overnighting at WSI work out.

As for internationals, I honestly believe many are interested and talking behind closed doors, but noone is going to commit yet as theres no need to. But the timing of the airport is very convenient for many airlines in the process of expanding. Indigo for example in a few years time with their 787s coming online? WSI surely would be a target.

ZG (Zipair) as they get more refurbished 787's from their parent company JL? Australia is surely on their radar with how well JQ does and they can definitely make a splash into the low cost market. More Bali flights from WSI from the Indonesian side? Totally possible.

It's just that theres no immediate need and they'd rather the airport get going first. JQ expansion to South Asia? I wouldn't be surprise to see them use WSI. I also wouldnt be surprised if in the medium run shifts things to WSI and gives the SYD slots to QFi.

 

[HS-TQE]

Agree. But arguably we are better starting with less airlines and a decent frequency, rather than multiple airlines only flying once or twice a day.

I'm sure VA will open at WSI within the first 5yrs and get all the publicity associated to themselves.

Agree with that.

As I've said earlier, not really sure if a token twice-daily service from BNE at leisure timings (even fitting in a token single daily BNE-WSI-MEL-WSI-BNE rotation) would yield greater returns for VA than their current schedules out of BNE/MEL. Cutting a few services to fit in a twice-daily service from BNE "for the sake of serving WSI" on day 1 isn't really a guarantee of profit on the VA side.

As I've always said VA will serve WSI "eventually", but the possibility of VA not being at WSI on Day 1 is still reasonably high.

 

[justinbrett]

Agree with that.

As I've said earlier, not really sure if a token twice-daily service from BNE at leisure timings (even fitting in a token single daily BNE-WSI-MEL-WSI-BNE rotation) would yield greater returns for VA than their current schedules out of BNE/MEL. Cutting a few services to fit in a twice-daily service from BNE "for the sake of serving WSI" on day 1 isn't really a guarantee of profit on the VA side.

As I've always said VA will serve WSI "eventually", but the possibility of VA not being at WSI on Day 1 is still reasonably high.

You seem to have a very rosy view of VA’s performance that every single route is performing so well that not a single frequency could be reduced ro accomodate a handful of capital city routes with guaranteed demand.

I think it’s pretty obvious the reluctance has been more principled due to costs (rather than concerns about demand) and likely a tactic to attract government subsidies. Starting with a small frequency isn’t for the sake of it, it’s the smart thing to do in a brand new airport while you bed in to the new base and employ ground staff, not to mention slowly growing your customer base (again, why you don’t want to give your rivals a head start).

They may not be there on day 1, but if they’re not there by around Apr 27 when the metro opens, they’ve been left behind.

 

[moa999]

And another reason not to be there at the start.

WSI Metro now looking like December 2027 opening.. and the state government's known for some time.

What Sydney Metro actually knew about delays to new airport rail line

Confidential documents reveal the government agency’s target date for completion of the 23-kilometre line to Western Sydney Airport.

www.smh.com.au

 

[HS-TQE]

Knowing VA/Bain, in the miracle they do announce a "skeleton" schedule on a sole BNE-WSI schedule, chances are VA will outsource the ground staff at WSI to the same crew that would be doing NZ and SQ's handling to start off with, only serving twice daily at the minimum.

With the news of the Metro delay, it may play a role in VA's delay but I wouldn't say a 'major influence'. I'd be willing to bet that Bain/VA will be looking at JQ's numbers at WSI from BNE and MEL for NW26/27 before deciding whether to change their lines of flying to allocate a daily or twice-daily frequency (largely based on O&D/leisure timings) to WSI for NS26 or NW26/27.

If the numbers aren't promising I'd be betting VA will hold off for at least two full IATA seasons until NW26/27 in line (or some time before) the current projected Metro opening date.

 

[justinbrett]

Knowing VA/Bain, in the miracle they do announce a "skeleton" schedule on a sole BNE-WSI schedule, chances are VA will outsource the ground staff at WSI to the same crew that would be doing NZ and SQ's handling to start off with, only serving twice daily at the minimum.

With the news of the Metro delay, it may play a role in VA's delay but I wouldn't say a 'major influence'. I'd be willing to bet that Bain/VA will be looking at JQ's numbers at WSI from BNE and MEL for NW26/27 before deciding whether to change their lines of flying to allocate a daily or twice-daily frequency (largely based on O&D/leisure timings) to WSI for NS26 or NW26/27.

If the numbers aren't promising I'd be betting VA will hold off for at least two full IATA seasons until NW26/27 in line (or some time before) the current projected Metro opening date.

JQ are set to launch (within a year) with 10 aircraft based at WSI - I don’t think the JQ numbers are going to be much help to VA - even if JQ struggles to sell seats that doesn’t mean VA will if they only have a fraction of the capacity.

JQ will compete with VA whether they are at SYD or WSI, and with this amount of capacity you’d expect them to have competitive pricing.

And another reason not to be there at the start.

WSI Metro now looking like December 2027 opening.. and the state government's known for some time.

What Sydney Metro actually knew about delays to new airport rail line

Confidential documents reveal the government agency’s target date for completion of the 23-kilometre line to Western Sydney Airport.

www.smh.com.au

Maybe they’ll offer cheap parking? If not I’m sure they’ll have a shuttle bus running - no worse than Avalon.

 

[jase05]

JQ are set to launch (within a year) with 10 aircraft based at WSI - I don’t think the JQ numbers are going to be much help to VA - even if JQ struggles to sell seats that doesn’t mean VA will if they only have a fraction of the capacity.

JQ will compete with VA whether they are at SYD or WSI, and with this amount of capacity you’d expect them to have competitive pricing.



Maybe they’ll offer cheap parking? If not I’m sure they’ll have a shuttle bus running - no worse than Avalon.

JQ having a presence at WSI is vital for us as they carry plenty of HV freight for us and having a presence out there will be invaluable

 

[clifford]

no worse than Avalon.

I wouldn't want to be hanging my hat on that. Is that the best we can say about WSI? What colour elephants come to mind?

 

[justinbrett]

I wouldn't want to be hanging my hat on that. Is that the best we can say about WSI? What colour elephants come to mind?

Only temporarily. The metro will be built.

 

[HS-TQE]

Agree. But arguably we are better starting with less airlines and a decent frequency, rather than multiple airlines only flying once or twice a day.

I'm sure VA will open at WSI within the first 5yrs and get all the publicity associated to themselves.

Agree with that.

I'm also sure that VA will want the all of the media attention to themselves when they eventually come to WSI in NS27 or NW27/28 instead of being overshadowed by the QFG's hub operations on opening day in NW26/27.

Even if it's only a base twice-daily to BNE to start off with (possibly using the same contracted ground staff for SQ and NZ instead of employing their own)

 

[jase05]

All modelling has indicated freight operations would begin in September 2026 and obviously the earlier the better but all the information we have is pointing at us moving operations there the first week of September

 

[markis10]

They're going to Royal Air Maroc.

Only 5 which are being used during peak, the are 8 stored until their neo’s arrive

 

[clifford]

Only temporarily. The metro will be built.

But to go.... Where? This is turning out to be a possible fiasco, along the lines of MEL.

 

[moa999]

But to go.... Where

Metro WSI is mostly built St.Marys - Bradfield and the rest is under contract, albeit a few months delayed.. most of the track is down, the trains are being built, the stations are gradually coming out of the ground.

Metro West on the other hand has been in the news the last few days. It currently consists of an expensive tunnel from (almost to reach) Martin Place to Westmead.. but there has been delays in contracts for actually making it into a rail line, building the stations and even the rolling stock.

 

[clifford]

Metro WSI is mostly built St.Marys - Bradfield and the rest is under contract, albeit a few months delayed.. most of the track is down, the trains are being built, the stations are gradually coming out of the ground.

But who wants to go to St Marys if going to the city? It's a complete nonsense. Typical, build the airport and worry about access later. Zounds a bit like HS2

 

[elanshin]

But who wants to go to St Marys if going to the city? It's a complete nonsense. Typical, build the airport and worry about access later. Zounds a bit like HS2

Its still a connection. Ultimately, its designed to help service the region and a north south connection is useful beyond just the airport, it's not a SYD replacement.

Over time we expect this line to extend north towards Tallawong (or Schofield) and the low hanging fruit is to extend the leppington line to the airport too.

If you treat it like SYD then yes it'll have drawbacks, but SYD will still be the gateway to Sydney and Australia - that is not changing. We're not going to see QF2 ever goto WSI excluding emergency or weather events.

 

[SYD]

But who wants to go to St Marys if going to the city? It's a complete nonsense. Typical, build the airport and worry about access later. Zounds a bit like HS2

To be fair, it does traverse the catchment area for those who’ll prefer to use WSI instead of schlepping back and fourth to SYD.