Weren't the 787's to replace 744's?

[bsb]

Weren't the 787's to replace 744 routes? Does this mean they're hanging around for a lot longer?

If LHR MEL gets axed (and we all know it will) what happens to those 380 aircraft? I'm hoping they'll be used as spares for a few months as they get a mid life refurb (PLEASE refit them with the suites)

LHR nonstop is exciting, but so are the other outcomes in this announcement.

 

[Isochronous]

Freeing up 2x A380, they could use them for SYD-HKG and MEL-HKG (both routes are currently on 744).

 

[RooFlyer]

Can you give us a bit of background to all that, please bsb? A number of contentions there.

 

[Flyerqf]

They have 7 on order. This announcement will take up 3.

The other 4 could be MEL-LAX(cancel current A380 and redeploy to 744 routes) and MEL-DFW both requiring 2 frames each.

Other option is BNE-LAX and SYD-SFO both go 787, which is 4 frames and could retire 4 747s. This is a significant reduction in capacity but with the JV with AA rejected this is a possibility.

But I suspect this is most likely:

388
SYD-LHR 3
SYD-DFW 2
SYD-LAX 2
MEL-LAX 2
SYD - HKG 1
MEL- HKG 1
Spare 1

744
SYD JNB 1.5
SYD HND 1.5
SYD SCL 1
SYD SFO 1.5 (5 pw)
Spare 1.5

787
MEL-PER-LHR 3
BNE DFW 1 (3 pw)
BNE LAX JFK 2

Retired
4 x 747

 

[bsb]

If you cast your mind back RooFlyer, AJ said that the 787's were replacing the 744's. I just wonder what the plan is now
Qantas non-stop flight from Perth to London

Also, ditching the MEL LHR routes obviously frees up some A380s (which aren't going to be sitting on the Tarmac for 10 years until end of life.) so I'm intrigued as to what they are to get used for and if they'll help a desperately needed (due nowish) half life full refurb programme.

 

[kitkatff]

Freeing up 2x A380, they could use them for SYD-HKG and MEL-HKG (both routes are currently on 744).

Really? MEL-HKG has been on a A330 for a little while I thought.

 

[bsb]

388
SYD-LHR 3
SYD-DFW 2
SYD-LAX 2
MEL-LAX 2
SYD - HKG 1
MEL- HKG 1
Spare 1

744
SYD JNB 1.5
SYD HND 1.5
SYD SCL 1
SYD SFO 2
Spare 1

787
MEL-PER-LHR 3
BNE DFW 1 (3 pw)
BNE LAX JFK 2

Retired
4 x 747

I like that, except BNE DFW which I think would more likely be MEL DFW (with me on it)

 

[Flyerqf]

Really? MEL-HKG has been on a A330 for a little while I thought.

333 4pw and 744 3pw but going daily 744 in 2017

 

[kitkatff]

ah, thanks for clarifying.

Edit: I hope they keep the 333 a while longer, they're so much nicer in J with the new suite than the 747 J seats.

 

[Flyerqf]

I like that, except BNE DFW which I think would more likely be MEL DFW (with me on it)

i reckon for the MEL DFW to work, the A380 to LAX would need to become a 787 too. It is possible that you could do that and leave 744 on BNE to LAX.

but where do the A380s go? Tokyo or Singapore perhaps?

 

[bsb]

i reckon for the MEL DFW to work, the A380 to LAX would need to become a 787 too.

possibly...but how long until AJ announces he's taking more options and then what can we speculate over

 

[mviy]

I hope they keep the 333 a while longer, they're so much nicer in J with the new suite than the 747 J seats.

If you can get the upgrade or pay for the J tickets. My one failed upgrade request has been for a flight on an A330. It's much easier to get an upgrade on a 747 in my opinion.

 

[eminere]

Have had 5/5 successful upgrade requests on A330 flights.

 

[JohnPhelan]

i reckon for the MEL DFW to work, the A380 to LAX would need to become a 787 too. It is possible that you could do that and leave 744 on BNE to LAX.

but where do the A380s go? Tokyo or Singapore perhaps?

Complete waste to put the 380 on a SIN only route - not efficient and too much capacity.

 

[Flyerqf]

Complete waste to put the 380 on a SIN only route - not efficient and too much capacity.

Singapore have two daily!

 

[Quickstatus]

A380 to/from China?

 

[moa999]

A380 to/from China?

Don't see it short term. New SYD-PEK route is already a big capacity expansion and the z China airlines have very low cost bases, staff costs

: I hope they keep the 333 a while longer, they're so much nicer in J with the new suite than the 747 J seats.

Given the cost of the refurbs I think all 26 will be with us for at least 6-8yrs, although rumours that a few 332s might get another refurb (crew rest, more galley space).

While I'm pretty certain the 8 A380s will get a refurb in the next 1-2yrs, some possibility that the six youngest 747s the ERs might get the same treatment given they potentially have a decent life left (though that would disappoint those wanting a 777X or 350-1000 as the replacement)

Would give QF a very consistent and very good Business product if that occurs

Singapore have two daily!

Much like EK to DXB, QR to DOH etc.. you can sustain much more traffic when flying to your hub

 

[flightobserver]

The original plan was for 8 789's to replace 5 744's, though with if fuel prices remain low (or the hedging strategy works) we could see the three refurbed non-ER 744's held on a bit longer.

I generally agree with Flyerqf's speculation, but with a few differences:
744:
SYD-SFO will probably use 2 frames based on maintaining the current 6x weekly scheduling
1 in maintenance
Leaves 2 744's which I hope will not be retired but to add a new route or kept as spares for the long haul fleet (would significantly improve delay recovery)

789:
MEL-PER-LHR (3)
MEL-DXB (2)
MEL-LAX (1)
BNE-LAX-JFK (2)

MEL-LAX will be necessary to rotate the aircraft in and out of BNE.

In terms of 789 deployment, I suspect we will see the timing of the deliveries coinciding with the operation of the seasonal QF 95/96 services, before the aircraft is placed onto a permanent route. E.g.

After delivery of 2nd aircraft (12/17):
MEL-LAX + further crew familiarisation runs (2)

After 3rd (3/18):
MEL-PER-LHR (3)

After 4th (6/18):
MEL-PER-LHR (3)
MEL-LAX (1)

After 5th (8/18):
MEL-PER-LHR (3)
MEL-DXB (2)

And so on

Don't read too much into the delivery dates, they're just guesses based on the planned 4 deliveries in FY18 and 4 in FY19.

 

[Isochronous]

Keep the 744s and send them to YVR!

 

[Lionel Hutz]

Really? MEL-HKG has been on a A330 for a little while I thought.

MEL-HKG is 744 on FRI-SUN, A330 during the week I believe.
I can see SYD-HKG being upped to a A388, it was flown by one yesterday actually.
I can't see how MEL-HKG could possibly warrant an A388 though.