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VA have a problem. Could this partly solve it ?

pauly7

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Joined
Dec 8, 2004
Messages
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They’d be better off just admitting that the “business airline” for long haul isn’t working. This was all to do with the former CEO wanting to look like a “real” airline and fly to “real” places like HKG.

They’d be better off deploying the airbus on Bali or Phuket and doing bogan shuttles. It’s not glamorous, but there’s probably more money to be made.
Hahah it’s not glamorous work the ‘bogan shuttles’ but QF have got there first and hoovered up any remotely premium pax heading that way with an A330 service from SYD and a 737 from MEL (which is how they opened SYD so expect an upgrade if they can build that market too).

I think it would be very risky for VA to throw a premium heavy widebody on that route. They’ve put widebodies on leisure routes before and got seriously burned.

What about PER to Joburg? QF certainly see an opportunity there (just held back by a backward airport operator).
 

ozfflyer

Active Member
Joined
Dec 22, 2018
Messages
612
They’d be better off just admitting that the “business airline” for long haul isn’t working. This was all to do with the former CEO wanting to look like a “real” airline and fly to “real” places like HKG.

They’d be better off deploying the airbus on Bali or Phuket and doing bogan shuttles. It’s not glamorous, but there’s probably more money to be made.
Bali must be very low yield from some of the insane fares around, which in some cases, just seem to cover govt taxes/charges.

Here's a more radical idea.

1stly some background.

We have flown to LAX in peak season when locked into school holidays, flying QF nonstop in one direction & FJ via NAN in other direction, on one ticket. At time it was much cheaper than QF or FJ in both directions, but we couldn't buy it from QF or FJ, only through a travel agent.

So, from 1JAN FJ have around 400 extra seats a week SYD/NAN (as moving from daily A330 to daily A359) & around 340-360 extra seats a week NAN/LAX (the A359 continues onto LAX 6 days a week & other day A330 continues on - think with only 2 x A359s they can't do NAN/LAX/NAN 7 days a week)

So what if VA had a talk with FJ. Everyone knows there's too much capacity to USA, except maybe in peak season.

Perhaps VA could put an A330 on more flights OZ/NAN & link up/codeshare with FJ A359 metal NAN/LAX & FJ A330 metal NAN/SFO on those days of the week VA don't fly BNE & MEL/LAX nonstop.

Then VA could offer OZ/LAX in one direction nonstop & other direction from LAX or SFO to OZ via NAN.

To suit timings in both directions, VA would probably have to base an A330 in NAN, unless they were prepared to let it sit at NAN for long hours everyday eg. 1800 to 0800 next day.

VA could then think about a NAN/PER/NAN flight that connected thru PER/NAN/LAX & PER/NAN/SFO. Changing aircraft at NAN is much easier than BNE, SYD, MEL & would be similar to NZs PER/AKL/LAX, PER/AKL/SFO option.
 
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dajop

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From Wikipedia, I'll give you one good reason why it's unlikley that VA and Fiji Airways will be talking anytime soon:

Fiji Airways is part of the Air Pacific Group (which includes the national airline, its wholly owned subsidiary Fiji Link, and a 38.75% stake in the Sofitel Fiji Resort & Spa on Denarau Island). The Air Pacific Group itself is owned by the Fijian government (51%), the Australian flag-carrier Qantas (46.32%), and Air New Zealand and the governments of Kiribati, Tonga, Nauru and Samoa each hold minor stakes.[10]
On the days that VA don't fly non-stop from BNE, they'd probably prefer passengers to connect via SYD on their own metal to LAX.
 

N860CR

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Joined
Nov 30, 2004
Messages
3,341
Hahah it’s not glamorous work the ‘bogan shuttles’ but QF have got there first and hoovered up any remotely premium pax heading that way with an A330 service from SYD and a 737 from MEL (which is how they opened SYD so expect an upgrade if they can build that market too).

I think it would be very risky for VA to throw a premium heavy widebody on that route. They’ve put widebodies on leisure routes before and got seriously burned.

What about PER to Joburg? QF certainly see an opportunity there (just held back by a backward airport operator).
Yes they’ve tried it, but only a bit halfarsed. Airbus to NAN was a gap filler and the 777 to HKT was way too big. You are right in that QF have beaten them to it though.

JNB would be a very good fit. The 777 made money even on the long route from MEL. SA will take issue with it given the partnership. That said, given the state they’re in, VA might serve as a good replacement.
 

TheInsider

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Jul 7, 2010
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2,177
Lol at all these suggestions that Virgin should go via somewhere to get to their destination where they go direct. People don't want to go via NAN to get to LAX, or via BNE to go SYD-HKG.

On top of this, there is so much additional costs associated with landing at all these 'other' places. Not just airport fees and charges, but also crewing cost, ground staff costs, airport counter fees, local government taxes, and accom costs for crew, additional fuel and also traffic rights.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jun 26, 2019
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6
These flights are not running empty at all. They were running 80% full in February, according to BITRE. Cargo is also fairly steady. I’m not sure VA would be making money but certainly not running “half empty” flights very often.

LAX services are also steady and tend to have higher yields.

If Hong Kong Airlines go belly up I could imagine VA seriously reconsider HKG but otherwise things will stay as they are imo.
 

ozfflyer

Active Member
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Dec 22, 2018
Messages
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From Wikipedia, I'll give you one good reason why it's unlikley that VA and Fiji Airways will be talking anytime soon:



On the days that VA don't fly non-stop from BNE, they'd probably prefer passengers to connect via SYD on their own metal to LAX.
Qantas despite 46%, has very little say in running of FJ & we're heading into massive recession, where many airlines won't survive at all.

No one from BNE area wants to go anywhere near SYD to go to USA. Adds 5-6 hours in each direction, as if try to cut it too close in SYD might not connect, even though legal min connect time. Seen it happen many times.
 

ozfflyer

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Dec 22, 2018
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Lol at all these suggestions that Virgin should go via somewhere to get to their destination where they go direct. People don't want to go via NAN to get to LAX, or via BNE to go SYD-HKG.

On top of this, there is so much additional costs associated with landing at all these 'other' places. Not just airport fees and charges, but also crewing cost, ground staff costs, airport counter fees, local government taxes, and accom costs for crew, additional fuel and also traffic rights.
plenty of OZ pax go to USA via NAN, just like plenty go via AKL. VA already fly to NAN, so that's not an issue. FJ need to fill their A359s.
 

ozfflyer

Active Member
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Dec 22, 2018
Messages
612
These flights are not running empty at all. They were running 80% full in February, according to BITRE. Cargo is also fairly steady. I’m not sure VA would be making money but certainly not running “half empty” flights very often.

LAX services are also steady and tend to have higher yields.

If Hong Kong Airlines go belly up I could imagine VA seriously reconsider HKG but otherwise things will stay as they are imo.
suggest 80% full means nothing. Suggest yields would be awful.

Recently have seen plenty of $750/$800/$950 return fares to LAX from BNE, SYD, MEL inc on QF($950) in low season inc Feb. According to some airline reps we've spoken to, filling aircraft with profitable pax is difficult in low season & airlines have to get into survival mode. This could be a very long recession, esp with bombings in Saudi. Iran looks like it might do something really stupid to piss off the yanks. The war machine in USA has been quiet lately & they need to use up all that build up of armaments.
 
Joined
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suggest 80% full means nothing. Suggest yields would be awful.

Recently have seen plenty of $750/$800/$950 return fares to LAX from BNE, SYD, MEL inc on QF($950) in low season inc Feb. According to some airline reps we've spoken to, filling aircraft with profitable pax is difficult in low season & airlines have to get into survival mode. This could be a very long recession, esp with bombings in Saudi. Iran looks like it might do something really stupid to piss off the yanks. The war machine in USA has been quiet lately & they need to use up all that build up of armaments.
I don’t think seat utilisation means nothing, it’s a very useful tool for analysis. I did mention the disparity with yield though, so I’m not really sure what point you’re trying to make.

Yes, the economy looks to be getting worrisome.
 

ozfflyer

Active Member
Joined
Dec 22, 2018
Messages
612
I don’t think seat utilisation means nothing, it’s a very useful tool for analysis. I did mention the disparity with yield though, so I’m not really sure what point you’re trying to make.

Yes, the economy looks to be getting worrisome.
the $750-$950 return fares to LAX are surely loss leaders & they keep on - been available for months now. So fill the plane up with loss leader fares, means you need a lot of business people paying $3k+ for same thing, to make any profit, at same time as many businesses cutting their travel budgets, ie no bus class travel AT ALL. Capacity has to be cut. Leasing companies are going to be getting a lot of aircraft back from airlines, who don't need them or fold.

Good time to be looking to lease an aircraft, as long as you can fill them at a profit. CATCH 22
 

dajop

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Qantas despite 46%, has very little say in running of FJ
Yes, but even if they have little say in the day to day running, most CEO's would probably not go out and do deals, that could serve to strengthen the no 1. competitor of an organisation who owns 46% of your shares (unless sanctioned by them).
 

Must...Fly!

AFF Supporter
Joined
Jan 12, 2010
Messages
3,113
Yes, but even if they have little say in the day to day running, most CEO's would probably not go out and do deals, that could serve to strengthen the no 1. competitor of an organisation who owns 46% of your shares (unless sanctioned by them).
Agreed.

Which makes the whole Virgin/Alliance thing look rather funny :)
 

wxxnxs

Active Member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
612
With 1/2 empty seats on A330 with VA flight, VA is still stingy enough not to release any business award seats. CX flight is most of the time full due to awards seats are released align with the sale.
 

ozfflyer

Active Member
Joined
Dec 22, 2018
Messages
612
With 1/2 empty seats on A330 with VA flight, VA is still stingy enough not to release any business award seats. CX flight is most of the time full due to awards seats are released align with the sale.
FJ codeshare with NZ on NAN/LAX (not sure about NAN/SFO) who are star alliance I think.NZ used to own 4% of FJ. Not sure if still the case.

Re award seats, they don't want pax using ff pts when they will pay cash. With ff seats they effectively already have your money.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jun 26, 2019
Messages
6
the $750-$950 return fares to LAX are surely loss leaders & they keep on - been available for months now. So fill the plane up with loss leader fares, means you need a lot of business people paying $3k+ for same thing, to make any profit, at same time as many businesses cutting their travel budgets, ie no bus class travel AT ALL. Capacity has to be cut. Leasing companies are going to be getting a lot of aircraft back from airlines, who don't need them or fold.

Good time to be looking to lease an aircraft, as long as you can fill them at a profit. CATCH 22

Thee fares are not insignificant. I’m not sure you can label these as “loss leaders” without internal data from VA? Their cost base is notably lower than QF, hence their ability to undercut. Their international division is understood to be slowly turning a profit. In addition, their LAX and NZ services are known to be their international division’s cash cow.
 

Must...Fly!

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Jan 12, 2010
Messages
3,113
Thee fares are not insignificant. I’m not sure you can label these as “loss leaders” without internal data from VA? Their cost base is notably lower than QF, hence their ability to undercut. Their international division is understood to be slowly turning a profit. In addition, their LAX and NZ services are known to be their international division’s cash cow.
That may have once been true but I would be shocked if that were still the case.
 

jakeseven7

Active Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2005
Messages
679
Lol at all these suggestions that Virgin should go via somewhere to get to their destination where they go direct. People don't want to go via NAN to get to LAX, or via BNE to go SYD-HKG.

On top of this, there is so much additional costs associated with landing at all these 'other' places. Not just airport fees and charges, but also crewing cost, ground staff costs, airport counter fees, local government taxes, and accom costs for crew, additional fuel and also traffic rights.
Agreed it’s crazy talk but being pushed mostly by some people who seem to be slightly obsessed with Fiji, don’t think it’s a serious proposition :)

I honestly don’t have an answer for VAi.

Unless the mining boom gets back up to the good old days (there are big signs of improvement) and they can return to trans con rather than let QF have it all.
 

Mrmaxwell

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Joined
May 18, 2007
Messages
1,119
They’d be better off deploying the airbus on Bali or Phuket and doing bogan shuttles. It’s not glamorous, but there’s probably more money to be made.
One of the best flights I ever had was on the VA 777 SYD-HKT...sad when it got dropped. Most of my flying is with QF simply due to flexibility and options.
 

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