US-AU QF flight with best points upgrade chance?

[airbound]

Hi All,

A short question that may not be able to be answered on anything more than a speculative basis (but maybe it can!).

Which of the following flights (on any given day) do you think would have the best chance of a successful Economy Saver to Business points upgrade request?

QF94 LAX-MEL A380
QF96 LAX-MEL B787
QF12 LAX-SYD A380

Cheers!

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

Depends on how many F, J or PE seats are available, and how many status passengers are on each flight.
Also your own status with QF as well.
I don't have access to Expert Flyer, but some on here do, its the weekend, so they would have more other things to do than boring old me!
If you can provide a possible date of travel, those with access to EF can have a look at how many F, J or PE seats are available on the days you want to fly.

 

[airbound]

Thanks AustraliaPoochie.

I'm looking to fly back from LAS on Easter Saturday (31 March). (Backtracking via DFW has been thrown up as an option by the booking engines too!)

I figured that there would be a lot of variables that need to be considered for specific dates, as you've mentioned above. I'm still curious as to whether, as a general rule, one of those options is better than the others.

Some of the general factors that have crossed my mind (holding other things equal) are:

• QF has more J capacity LAX-MEL than it does LAX-SYD, which makes me think that getting an upgrade LAX-SYD would be harder than getting an upgrade LAX-MEL.
• The B787 has fewer Y seats per J seat than does the A380. That means fewer Y passengers competing for the J seats. However, the B787 has fewer J seats in the first place, so may be more likely to be full to start with, lessening the opportunity of an upgrade.
• The B787 is a new product, which many fliers may be keen to try (in Y and J). It may be more likely to be fuller in both classes as a result, further lessening the opportunity for an upgrade.

 

[cjd600]

LAX-BNE likely best of all going on J award release numbers.
Or SFO-SYD

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

Airbound, are you at least QF SG?
Because even if there are a lot of space to upgrade into, even at SG, its down the pecking order.
Not that I am an expert, but who knows, something in premY might be available for you to upgrade to, from disc/whY.
Deeply discounted Y also might not be upgradeable.
According to Pointhacks, QFi (subclasses E,N,O,P, Q cannot be upgraded with points.

 

[Mattg]

Generally speaking, your chances will be better if you fly mid-week (and NOT on Friday or Saturday!!).

In any case, having a look at Expert Flyer I would have to say that QF94 on 31 March looks the most promising. But none of the flights you're looking at seem particularly full at this early stage.

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

Frequent Flyer - Points Calculators - Qantas Class Types
Lucky you don't fall into E,N,O,P,Q on here.
I have added this to my fav on laptop, hard to find but its a good page tho.

 

[shuuy]

Obviously depends on the day, but I’d assume that LAX-MEL as fewer J/F pax than LAX-SYD despite having 50-60% more capacity.

If I didn’t have any other info (expertflyer), I’d roll the dice on the 380 because of the J-F upgrades. Although airport upgrades require you to accept Y-J or Y-W which isn’t always the best use of points of course.

 

[RichardMEL]

Easter is a peak travel time to be aware of that, though maybe the Saturday ex-US not so much. Hard to really know.

I'd suggest QF94 or 16(BNE) as best options but really how long is a piece of string?

good luck