Upgrades on CX from Y - what are the chances?

[aus_flyer]

I know CX are known to be quite generous with upgrades for WPs. I've also been told that HKG-YVR is CX's most popular route and planes always have heavy loadings.

Question - from your experience, what are the chances of a WP in Y getting upgraded on this route?

 

[Va Bene]

I can only speak for HKY to Rome and return with CX (on a QF ticket) and have never obtained an upgrade for any of these (5 or so trips in last 18months). I ask at the Pier lounge in HK everytime and also in Fuimicino on the way back and no luck to date , even though there are J seats available. Maybe it doesn't help that I have a QF ticket instead of a CX purchased one.
On one occassion my customer sat in J with a spare seat next to him (I was in Y) and all they would let me do is sit with him on landing (gave that a miss). They did serve me some vino from J.
In HK, the lounge staff said that they only move people into J if Y is full and then it is the Marco Polo Diamond and Gold first before any other Oneworlds get the chance.
Good luck!