The interesting sound of silence.

[get me outta here]

I'm watching live now in another screen ... politics hasn't been this exciting for quite a while. Yes Hvr, maybe not incisive enough.

 

[Alanslegal]

I am predicting that the spill motion would be unsuccessful, with a result of 73-29. Tony Abbott will try to spin that it is a significant victory for him. The media will no doubt say that the win is hollow, that there is still a lot of disgruntled members and will imply that 29 members supporting a spill, is massive.

I wasn't too far off The media has already spun the idea that almost 40% of the party has voted a no-confidence against Tony Abbott.

 

[james4321]

So Abbott has survived, for now. Be interesting to see if his performance improves or if today was merely delaying the inevitable whilst potential challengers gather the numbers.

Expect to see Abbott claim this as a victory. Reality is that he is dead, just a matter of when to bury him.

 

[badseed]

Abbott is a dead man walking. ~ 40% of his colleagues voting against him with no declared challenger.You can bet that now the Cabinet will fragment, and look to either Turnbull or Bishop to step up.Even our Lib member CEO is mightily pissed off that Tony has survived (for now).But overall a great political result for those of us on the left, but perhaps not so good for the country where business confidence is already low.I do hope that more Australians will realise that under our system that they don't get a vote for the PM / party leaders, and that this is not necessarily a bad thing. Rudd was dumped because he was an enormous prick and hamstringing the government. Abbott will be dumped because he's an incompetent fool who cannot pass a budget. Our representatives need to retain the freedom to be able to dump a leader who is either incompetent or past their use-by date.

 

[whatmeworry]

I guess rather then calling Tony, one term Tony, in the future it will be half term Tony.

 

[medhead]

I'm not sure it is correct to say 40% voted against him. The vote was on the question of whether to have a leadership spill. People might have thought it was a good idea to have a spill and re-elect Abbott as a show of confidence.

 

[drron]

Sorry but many have forgotten history.
1992 coalition in poll had 52% of primary vote,63% dissatisfied with Keating.He still won in march 1993.
2001 Libs polling 26% of primary vote.Howard still won the next election.
Sportsbet for next election has the Coalition and ALP both at $1.85.
I still think the libs will lose.

The Government's acheivements.
Significantly less people drowning trying to reach Australia.
Significantly less children in detention-1548 31/5/13 to 699 at 30/6/14.
627 held overseas at 31/5/13 to 169 at 30/6/14.And as of December all on Christmas island were relocated to Darwin.
Massive increase in those accepted from overseas camps.20,000 in the first year of this government.

Getting rid of the mining tax.Despite the claim a week ago on Q&A by Wayne Swan that the government had forfeited 28 billion in revenue the facts are totally different.
The tax over 2 years raised $340 million net.It cost the ATO $20 million a year to collect.first quarter 2014 it raised $600000 gross-ie costing the ATO money.
But it is even worse.From BHP financial statements they paid $78 million on this tax in the 6 months to December 2013.But because of the changes in accounting introduced as part of the tax they ended up paying $461 million less tax.
And those like Wayne Swan who think the glory days will return the iron ore and coal prices keep falling.

The economy.At least the coalition is aware of the coming problems.An aging population increasing the welfare and health bills and a decreasing tax base with the very real possibility of our Terms of Trade to remain at lower levels for a long time certainly suggest spending needs to be carefully considered.
That said the last Budget was a dog's breakfast with no perceivable overall strategy and with absolutely no effort to spell out the problems facing the economy.

<redacted>

One thing I am sure of is that even though I think Bill Shorten will win the next election is that he is not the answer to our nation's problems.

 

[BAM1748]

I'm not a Bill Shorten supporter, but the Libs just gave Bill a huge free kick at goal.

Matt
PS, certainly not an Abbott supporter either and will not be voting for him if he survives until election time.

 

[whatmeworry]

Public isn't stupid. It all started with an unfair budget and law changes that were never discussed before the election.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-09/verrender-as-our-economy-suffers-cue-the-clowns/6078828

What is the Federal Government's response? It crows that it has eliminated revenue sources to the tune of $8 billion or more a year.
Why? Because it has pandered to the interests of big business rather than act in the best interest of the nation. And it is not the first government to do so.
Money has always bought political influence. But as Australian business power has become ever more concentrated among a collection of cosy duopolies, or at best oligopolies, the situation has become worse.
Kevin Rudd was rolled as prime minister in part because the mining lobby objected furiously to the imposition of a Resources Rent Tax on iron ore and coal.

Paul Keating summed it up best.
Keating says it best - Imgur

 

[Alanslegal]

Surprisingly, Tony Abbott nor anyone in the Liberal Party has not blamed the Labor Party for this morning's leadership spill ballot. I mean, Abbott and Co. love to blame the Labor for everything and anything ..... yet when it's clear that Labor were the ones who sets multiple precedents of leadership spills aka the chaos government, they don't have the balls to man-up and say "hey, this is Labor's fault too, they started it".

 

[Limewood]

Me thinks they will all go down now in the Abbott ship.

All the people I've spoken to in past months when the country's leadership question comes up say Abbott just has no persona.

 

[james4321]

Me thinks they will all go down now in the Abbott ship.

All the people I've spoken to in past months when the country's leadership question comes up say Abbott just has no persona.

I think many people would be prepared to fairly consider the LIB policies, plans etc if it wasnt Abbot that was promoting them. But because he has no credibility left, the view is that "if hes saying it then its a lie or a con or both". He may struggle on for a few weeks more, but the sooner the Libs dump him the better. The longer the senior Libs keep him propped up like a scarecrow with a broom up his back, the more damage they are doing to their own credibility. And the public will punish them for that.

 

[OATEK]

I agree with most of what drron wrote, but it seems that in reality facts are not the issue on either side of politics. Polls are.

So just as Kevin07 and Julia were hounded from the office of PM because of poor polls, it is now Tony's turn. The polls provide the ammunition for change, but it is generally the MPs on the same side of politics that force the changes. Say what you like about Lib/Nat attitudes towards Julia Gillard, it was her own party members that decided she had to go! Australia's first female PM cut down by her Labor colleagues for fear of losing an election.

Unless leaders can find a way to neutralise the influence of polls, I believe this sort of short-term reaction, instead of working on Australia's long term needs, will continue to make political life a lottery for all leaders.

 

[medhead]

The same rhetoric about the mining tax.

While the current government might see the the coming problems, although personally I doubt they understand them, they are devoid of big picture, big thinking innovative responses to those problems. They are entirely hamstring by their 3 word slogans during the last election. Effectively they have wedged themselves.

The ALP policies in government show that they also clearly see the problems we face, despite the inference to the contrary. That is why they had things like saving for our future via a mine tax and reducing our pollution as policy. Certainly the petroleum resource rent tax works and Norway are doing pretty good for themselves in having used their resources wealth to save for the future. We might have issues with implementation. But that doesn't make saving for the future a bad idea.

What this country desperately needs is ideas not dogmatic rhetoric from the self proclaimed adults*.


* this is a reference to the politicians who said the adults are in charge now.

Sorry but many have forgotten history.
1992 coalition in poll had 52% of primary vote,63% dissatisfied with Keating.He still won in march 1993.
2001 Libs polling 26% of primary vote.Howard still won the next election.
Sportsbet for next election has the Coalition and ALP both at $1.85.
I still think the libs will lose.

The Government's acheivements.
Significantly less people drowning trying to reach Australia.
Significantly less children in detention-1548 31/5/13 to 699 at 30/6/14.
627 held overseas at 31/5/13 to 169 at 30/6/14.And as of December all on Christmas island were relocated to Darwin.
Massive increase in those accepted from overseas camps.20,000 in the first year of this government.

Getting rid of the mining tax.Despite the claim a week ago on Q&A by Wayne Swan that the government had forfeited 28 billion in revenue the facts are totally different.
The tax over 2 years raised $340 million net.It cost the ATO $20 million a year to collect.first quarter 2014 it raised $600000 gross-ie costing the ATO money.
But it is even worse.From BHP financial statements they paid $78 million on this tax in the 6 months to December 2013.But because of the changes in accounting introduced as part of the tax they ended up paying $461 million less tax.
And those like Wayne Swan who think the glory days will return the iron ore and coal prices keep falling.

The economy.At least the coalition is aware of the coming problems.An aging population increasing the welfare and health bills and a decreasing tax base with the very real possibility of our Terms of Trade to remain at lower levels for a long time certainly suggest spending needs to be carefully considered.
That said the last Budget was a dog's breakfast with no perceivable overall strategy and with absolutely no effort to spell out the problems facing the economy.



One thing I am sure of is that even though I think Bill Shorten will win the next election is that he is not the answer to our nation's problems.

 

[Moody]

I agree with most of what drron wrote, but it seems that in reality facts are not the issue on either side of politics. Polls are.

So just as Kevin07 and Julia were hounded from the office of PM because of poor polls, it is now Tony's turn. The polls provide the ammunition for change, but it is generally the MPs on the same side of politics that force the changes. Say what you like about Lib/Nat attitudes towards Julia Gillard, it was her own party members that decided she had to go! Australia's first female PM cut down by her Labor colleagues for fear of losing an election.

Unless leaders can find a way to neutralise the influence of polls, I believe this sort of short-term reaction, instead of working on Australia's long term needs, will continue to make political life a lottery for all leaders.

Whilst I agree to some extent that Rudd and Gillard were besieged by vested interest groups and undermined from within, they were also both the architects of their own fall. Rudd had the arrogance of Sherlock, and Gillard stumbled every time she was gaining momentum. I think the public are happy to see poor leaders kicked out, as long as it is explained gently to them (the poor dears.)

I doubt whether there will be many who miss "Mr 24%".

 

[DC3]

I'm not sure it is correct to say 40% voted against him. The vote was on the question of whether to have a leadership spill. People might have thought it was a good idea to have a spill and re-elect Abbott as a show of confidence.

Gee, that's an interesting twist. I had thought that a vote of confidence would be in not having any spill at all.

 

[DC3]

.... That said the last Budget was a dog's breakfast with no perceivable overall strategy and with absolutely no effort to spell out the problems facing the economy ....

No knighthood for you. "Sir Ron" isn't going to happen now.

 

[medhead]

Good government starts today.

Well it starts everyday.

Then Abbott is trying to pretend that the charter of budget honesty does not exist. That there was no Pre election fiscal update. Trying to claim there was some surprise, that the ALP hide something. So Costello's policy implementation of budget honesty was a complete and utter failure. Abbott is disingenuous at best, if not an outright liar.

Leigh Sales owned Abbott tonight.

Gee, that's an interesting twist. I had thought that a vote of confidence would be in not having any spill at all.

Also an unlikely twist. But if confident of the numbers to flush out the hare?

 

[TheRealTMA]

I think the Game Of Thrones quip was hilarious. Obviously he's never read nor seen any or he would be wary

One can guarantee that it will indeed be a GOT ending. I'm not sure when the dragons will appear though...

 

[Durin's Bane]

While the current government might see the the coming problems, although personally I doubt they understand them, they are devoid of big picture, big thinking innovative responses to those problems. They are entirely hamstring by their 3 word slogans during the last election. Effectively they have wedged themselves.

The ALP policies in government show that they also clearly see the problems we face, despite the inference to the contrary. That is why they had things like saving for our future via a mine tax and reducing our pollution as policy. Certainly the petroleum resource rent tax works and Norway are doing pretty good for themselves in having used their resources wealth to save for the future. We might have issues with implementation. But that doesn't make saving for the future a bad idea.

The ALP had the power in the Senate from 2010 to 2013 to introduce tough measures, but failed to do so. How come? How did they plan to pay for Gonski and the NDIS? Where was the business plan for the $40B NBN?

Remember there are no royalties being paid by the O&G companies on top of the PRRT. The Mining Tax may have been palatable if the State Royalties had been abolished, but which State government would ever want to let go of that revenue?

Norway’s policies are always quoted, but they have some structural problems of their own. Have a read:

The End Of An Oil Boom Is Threatening Norway's Welfare Model | Business Insider
VITENBERG: Norway's shame: How a nation squandered its oil riches - Washington Times

It’s working well now, but how will they adjust the welfare state once the oil money runs out?