The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

justinbrett

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Mild virus with 25% mortality in unvaccinated nursing home population.
Figures from UK in this article Covid and flu: what do the numbers tell us about morbidity and deaths?
Suggest ?200 times the death rate from flu.( I agree hard to compare prevaccination figures )

I don’t agree that we should just move on.
Overwhelming the health system with vaccine preventable illness as has happened overseas and is likely to happen again there only causes knock on effects with our usual goals of early treatment of other diseases and illnesses.
All the younger vaccine hesitant don’t understand the consequences.
I don’t know your age group but already there are difficulties getting timely investigation for suspected breast cancer.
94.4% first jab in NSW. Really, it’s time to move on.
 

mviy

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25% mortality in unvaccinated nursing home population.
There are measures that can be taken to assist with that like requiring staff to be vaccinated and visitors as well (or at least significantly restricting access from unvaccinated visitors) as well as using rapid antigen testing. Sensible precautions to protect the vulnerable need to be taken, but we need to live with the virus and let people take responsibility for their own health.

I have a fully vaccinated elderly friend living alone and not in aged care that I have had to cancel multiple planned visits to see. This friend due to age isn't expected to have that long left despite being healthy for their age. It seems ridiculous that as a fully vaccinated as well, I haven't been able to travel from VIC to SA to see this friend. This madness has to stop. If this friend chooses to want to have me visit the state should not interfere. Proof of vaccination (if anything) should be all that's needed to travel interstate.
 
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N860CR

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There are measures that can be taken to assist with that like requiring staff to be vaccinated and visitors as well (or at least significantly restricting access from unvaccinated visitors) as well as using rapid antigen testing. Sensible precautions to protect the vulnerable need to be taken, but we need to live with the virus and let people take responsibility for their own health.

I have a fully vaccinated elderly friend living alone and not in aged care that I have had to cancel multiple planned visits to see. This friend due to age isn't expected to have that long left despite being healthy for their age. It seems ridiculous that as a fully vaccinated as well, I haven't been able to travel from VIC to SA to see this friend. This madness has to stop. If this friend chooses to want to have me visit the state should not interfere.

Realistically, close enough to 100% of nursing home residents will be vaccinated. The fact that people keep bring up the nursing home mortality figures is somewhat irresponsible. We are in a very different position to over 12 months ago when covid deaths replaced influenza deaths in end of life care.

Yes, vaccinated people in nursing homes will die. Just as they will die from falling out of bed, slipping in the shower, getting an infection, eating the food (which I’m surprised doesn’t take more of them down to be honest, or push them to suicide) etc etc. There still seem to be some people with the mindset that “covid can kill nobody” (despite it being a global pandemic) and this is just naive.

Very few countries actually had “overrun” healthcare systems, and Australia never even got close to that. As a matter of fact, we actually had nurses stood down during the pandemic due to a lack of work.
 

lakeman

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Realistically, close enough to 100% of nursing home residents will be vaccinated. The fact that people keep bring up the nursing home mortality figures is somewhat irresponsible. We are in a very different position to over 12 months ago when covid deaths replaced influenza deaths in end of life care.

Yes, vaccinated people in nursing homes will die. Just as they will die from falling out of bed, slipping in the shower, getting an infection, eating the food (which I’m surprised doesn’t take more of them down to be honest, or push them to suicide) etc etc. There still seem to be some people with the mindset that “covid can kill nobody” (despite it being a global pandemic) and this is just naive.

Very few countries actually had “overrun” healthcare systems, and Australia never even got close to that. As a matter of fact, we actually had nurses stood down during the pandemic due to a lack of work.
Now , you will probably call me nitpicking like certain infamous posters but I disagree with you in several nuanced ways.

I started to write my reply arguing point by point but , in the end you hold your view on what you believe.
Some things you say dont accord with my experience.
I still think that dealing with Covid-19 has been a major challenge to our health and economic systems which justify infringement of individual rights.
How much is enough and how much is too much ?
You see the end of problems , I see too much uncertainty!
Good luck, I hope you are right!
 

N860CR

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Now , you will probably call me nitpicking like certain infamous posters but I disagree with you in several nuanced ways.

I started to write my reply arguing point by point but , in the end you hold your view on what you believe.
Some things you say dont accord with my experience.
I still think that dealing with Covid-19 has been a major challenge to our health and economic systems which justify infringement of individual rights.
How much is enough and how much is too much ?
You see the end of problems , I see too much uncertainty!
Good luck, I hope you are right!

You’re obviously free to disagree, but facts don’t lie. And numbers don’t lie.

There was a point where certain infringements on individual rights were justified, but that point is now well and truly behind us.

Again, we are looking at 95% vaccination rates. What more do people want (or expect)?
 

drron

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Mild virus with 25% mortality in unvaccinated nursing home population.
Figures from UK in this article Covid and flu: what do the numbers tell us about morbidity and deaths?
Suggest ?200 times the death rate from flu.( I agree hard to compare prevaccination figures )

I don’t agree that we should just move on.
Overwhelming the health system with vaccine preventable illness as has happened overseas and is likely to happen again there only causes knock on effects with our usual goals of early treatment of other diseases and illnesses.
All the younger vaccine hesitant don’t understand the consequences.
I don’t know your age group but already there are difficulties getting timely investigation for suspected breast cancer.
Though a third of the residents of Australian nursing homes die each year.
From ABS statistics in 2017 3.9 per 100000 Australians died of flu that year.

The figures for covid for 2021 until August 31 are that just below 2.5 per 100000 Australiand died from covid.Annualised makes it 3.75 per 100000.

That means hardly different to the flu.
 

justinbrett

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Now , you will probably call me nitpicking like certain infamous posters but I disagree with you in several nuanced ways.

I started to write my reply arguing point by point but , in the end you hold your view on what you believe.
Some things you say dont accord with my experience.
I still think that dealing with Covid-19 has been a major challenge to our health and economic systems which justify infringement of individual rights.
How much is enough and how much is too much ?
You see the end of problems , I see too much uncertainty!
Good luck, I hope you are right!

I'm sure your view is well intentioned, and at some point during the last two years was perfectly valid - but my question is always - what's the endgame?

We've reached incredibly high levels of vaccination. Stress on hospitals and ICU are way down, even with open international borders and no quarantine.

There comes a point where governments must return to normal programming - yes, covid has not been eradicated. It will never be eradicated. We still fund HIV research and education, and it still presents a challenge, but it doesn't stop us from living normal lives. So it will be with covid. There might be further challenges in the years ahead, but unlikely to be on the scale that we've had in the last two years. Covid was devastating for the most part because we weren't prepared for it. We really weren't prepared for any infectious disease (ie, why did it take so long to close down international travel, why did the WHO refuse to declare it a pandemic? Why did Australia & the US get called racist for closing their borders to China?). If there is a next time, it will play out very differently.

But let's now embrace the freedom we have and move on as best we can. We've achieved a higher vaccine rate than we thought possible. The cost of living in a two tiered society with draconian checks and surveillance far outweighs the risk of letting the tiny remainder of unvaccinated people back into society.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Yesterday (Nov 23) Vic reach 89.79% for the second dose for 15+. Hospitalisations at 284 were under the 300 for the first time since 24 Sept indicating that the higher vaccination rates are continuing to puss down hospitalisations.

So either today it will have reached 90%, or tomorrow it will (probably more likely).

So that will be 90% fully vaxxed.

First and second dose rates are now both very slow now, and so 95% fully vaxxed for 15+ may take a little while.


1637736926935.png
 

Pushka

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Yesterday (Nov 23) Vic reach 89.79% for the second dose for 15+. Hospitalisations at 284 were under the 300 for the first time since 24 Sept indicating that the higher vaccination rates are continuing to puss down hospitalisations.

So either today it will have reached 90%, or tomorrow it will (probably more likely).

So that will be 90% fully vaxxed.

First and second dose rates are now both very slow now, and so 95% fully vaxxed for 15+ may take a little while.


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Vic is using 15+? SA is 12+ for our next parole release date. Although the difference between 16 and 12 is just a couple of days as we are all so old.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Vic is using 15+? SA is 12+ for our next parole release date. Although the difference between 16 and 12 is just a couple of days as we are all so old.

Take your pick. As Vic has opened up now it is essentially academic.

Vic Gov now reports on 12+. but the 15+ was the original measure. 90% fully vaxxed for 12+ should follow in not too many days after it is reach for 15+. The 12-15 cohort is vaccinating much quicker than any of the other age cohorts at present (it started last)..

1637739659619.png
 
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mviy

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health.gov.au shows 90.01% for 16+ in VIC and covidlive shows 90% for 16+ as having been reached with the numbers released today and expects 90% for 12+ to be reached with the numbers released around 28 November. So there must be some discrepancy in numbers somewhere.
 

mviy

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But still 90.01% of 16+ isn’t going to be enough to pull 12+ up to 90% immediately. It’d take a few days at least one would think.
 

lovetravellingoz

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health.gov.au shows 90.01% for 16+ in VIC and covidlive shows 90% for 16+ as having been reached with the numbers released today and expects 90% for 12+ to be reached with the numbers released around 28 November.
So there must be some discrepancy in numbers somewhere.


Yes I agree that the Vic figures do not align with the Feds figures for 12 ++.

It may be that some LGA's have recently been corrected for their population figures and that the Vic Gov is using a different total population figure. As in City of Melbourne where the recently adjusted population bumped up the vaccination rate of that LGA so that people can travel with less restrictions. The Fed population for Vic today is the same as it has been in the past (ie not recently corrected).


Using the Federal figures as of yesterday 12+ fully vaxxed is 89.32%. So even with rounding off it would be 89% and not 90%. Though if you included today's doses (to be reported tomorrow), the rounding would most likely be 90% as it should be in the ballpark of 89.55% for second doses 12++.


To reach 90.0% double vaxxed for 12+ requires 39,056 second doses. There were 13,070 2nd doses yesterday (Wednesday).

So depending on how many second doses happen on the weekend it may be reached sometime Sat or Sunday, and if not will be reached on Monday. Though as a rounded % it will be 90% earlier than that.
 
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This madness has to stop. If this friend chooses
Annualised makes it 3.75 per 100000.
It is apparent that the people no one bothered to consult were/are the NH residents....
How many have died without relatives at bedside because they were not allowed to attend?
I would suggest more than Precovid.

I see too much uncertainty!
Is there such a thing as "certainty" in life?. Death and taxes are about the only certainties.
How much uncertainty is palatable?
Increasingly anxiety is less of a personal struggle and more and more externalised onto the surrounding world demanding that the world rahter than the person change to sooth the personal anxiety
 
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Pushka

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SA hits 80% dd likely today. And hoping for a boost with this tiny little covid appearance. No community transmission - yet. Chemists are finally offering Pfizer booster so I've booked into one of those in 2 weeks time. A day after the 6 months. After two AZ. 90% over 12's on target by end of year.
 
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