The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

jakeseven7

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So CHO Young has changed her tune at the QLD presser this morning. "Please avail yourself of the AstraZeneca vaccine. There is plenty available"

Has a lot more back pedalling to do to drive our dead last vaccination rates up! But I think as we see NSW and VIC surge ahead with AZ we will eventually catch up ;)
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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National Cabinet at 2pm

The agenda is the vaccination modelling and the NSW Premier might try a take 2 on getting more doses.

I’m guessing we won’t hear from the PM until after 5pm - around the time of Eastern Coast news bulletin
 

dairyfloss

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210,742 today - see positive waves work :) :) (and an outbreak doesn’t go astray either)

It's very good, and that extra ~9K doses a day vs yesterday, if maintained, would take another week off of those numbers I mocked up yesterday (which as it turns out were pretty close to the Grattan numbers that were released). We could have 80% of the country FULLY vaccinated in 17.5 weeks from today.

Current pace.
Current supply.
The end of November.
We won't.
But we could :)

Cheers,
Matt.
 
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mviy

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Some good numbers.

We now have over 40% (40.6%) of 70+ that are fully vaccinated and over 25% (25.23%) of 50+ are fully vaccinated.

The 40.6% of 70+ is a nice jump again from 39.5% the day before.

Now over 1/6 of every age group 40-44 and up are fully vaccinated.

First doses for 50-54 are 49.6%, so when today's numbers are released tomorrow we should have every age group 50-54 and up having had over 50% first doses.

First doses for 16+ are 39.95%, so will exceed 40% tomorrow.

First doses for 35-39 are 20.3% (now over 20%)
 

Seat0B

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When today's numbers are released tomorrow we should reach or be very close to 40% of 16+ population having had a first dose. Considering the group of 16+ with the lowest vaccination rates includes the 16-17 year olds who can't vote surely the tide of public opinion in favour of lockdowns etc. has to start changing.
The way we are going, with these sorts of target percentages that will never be achieved, they will be able to vote before international borders are open 🙁.
 

Seat0B

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Agree with your definition of herd immunity. What I don't agree with is being held hostage by those who delay or avoid vaccination.

My OS plans (to visit my overseas elderly parents) are currently non-existent. I fully understand why this is the case right now when there just isn't sufficient vaccine supply - I don't like it, but I understand it. HOWEVER, when there is sufficient supply + sufficient time (2 months) post full supply, I - the overseas intended traveler - am no longer the selfish one, rather, it is those who don't want to get vaccinated when they otherwise have no valid medical reason not to be vaccinated who are the selfish. If after this time there is still less than 80% herd immunity - let those who have made the choice to remain unvaccinated take responsibility for the consequences of their decisions.
What @JB expat said!
 

JB expat

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This should encourage vaccinations (further encourage I should say)...but it doesn't bode well for lifting any restrictions any time soon...(sorry for the negativity - it just feels like a relentless 1 step forward, 2 steps back dance).

 

Seat0B

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This should encourage vaccinations (further encourage I should say)...but it doesn't bode well for lifting any restrictions any time soon...(sorry for the negativity - it just feels like a relentless 1 step forward, 2 steps back dance).

What @JB expat said, again!

Are you channeling my thoughts? Must be because of the vax, right? 😆😆😆
 

burmans

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This should encourage vaccinations (further encourage I should say)...but it doesn't bode well for lifting any restrictions any time soon...(sorry for the negativity - it just feels like a relentless 1 step forward, 2 steps back dance).

It is clearly more contagious but I do really think its about time we also start tracking the hospitalisations/#'s in ICU and deaths rather than just infections.

Just to be clear I don't think we are anywhere like at the point where we should consider opening up, but I do think these will actually be the stats that are going to be important to greater opening up so we should be getting used to and tracking them now. This pandemic has shown over and over again that it takes some people a long time to understand statistics so the sooner we start accustoming ourselves the better.
 
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Princess Fiona

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It is clearly more contagious but I do really think its about time we also start tracking the hospitalisations/#'s in ICU and deaths rather than just infection.

Just to be clear I don't think we are anywhere like at the point where we should consider opening up, but I do think these are actually be the stats that are going to be important to greater opening up so we should be getting used to and tracking them now. This pandemic has shown over and over again that it takes some people a long time to understand statistics so the sooner we start accustoming ourselves the better.
Agreed. Long way to go with vaccinations before we can just track hospitalization/ ICU/Death.

Currently in NSW a 10% hospitalization rate and a third of those hospitalized into ICU.
Stats like that should drive up the vaccines
 

NM

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Agreed. Long way to go with vaccinations before we can just track hospitalization/ ICU/Death.

Currently in NSW a 10% hospitalization rate and a third of those hospitalized into ICU.
Stats like that should drive up the vaccines
And the other key statistic, which will be much harder to track for us lounge-chair statisticians who can only access publicly available data, is the hostipalisation, ICU and death rates for vaccinated vs unvaccinated confirmed cases.
 

Princess Fiona

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And the other key statistic, which will be much harder to track for us lounge-chair statisticians who can only access publicly available data, is the hostipalisation, ICU and death rates for vaccinated vs unvaccinated confirmed cases.
That’s publicly available data from NSW health.
Up to 10th July (latest stats not published yet)
6% of hospital cases fully vaccinated
10% partially vaccinated

92% of all infections in unvaccinated individuals

0% fully vaccinated in ICU

NSW Heath
 
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NM

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That’s publicly available data from NSW health.
Up to 10th July (latest stats not published yet)
6% of hospital cases fully vaccinated
10% partially vaccinated

92% of all infections in unvaccinated individuals

0% fully vaccinated in ICU

NSW Heath
And its those stats that should be presented at each daily press briefing.
 

burmans

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I'm a favour of the concept of an information radiator, essentially what this term means is that the information should not only be there if you go looking, it should be highly visible so you can't miss it. There is masses of data on the website, but it needs to be highly visible, interpreted and broadcast. Expecting people to go looking has been shown to be not a very effective communication channel, much as I would agree people 'should be able' to find it.

Casey Briggs on the ABC is particularly good at this interpretation and putting into simple terms, but suspect many of the audience who need the data explained watch other channels so would be keen to see this get a wider reach.
 

dairyfloss

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That’s publicly available data from NSW health.
Up to 10th July (latest stats not published yet)
6% of hospital cases fully vaccinated
10% partially vaccinated

92% of all infections in unvaccinated individuals

0% fully vaccinated in ICU

NSW Heath
How odd… those numbers look pretty much like the vaccine efficacy numbers. Who’d have thought!? :p
 
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So we have the magic numbers 70% fully vaccinated to move to phase B. 80% fully vaccinated to move to phase C. The whole country has to achieve the % and the state or territory has to achieve it, Less restrictions in phase B for a fully vaccinated person, with Tas, NT and Vic working on what that means and reporting back.

Phase C is where we will see a gradual opening of international travel

EDIT (all figures are of 16+ population)

Currently Aus is at 18.24% fully vaccinated

ACT, NT and Tas are over 20%

VIC, NSW, SA over 18%

Qld 17.62% and WA 15.38%
 
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