QFi - Virtual Airline

[docjames]

Reading that AA opening back up LAX-SYD From November made me think about something that has been alluded to by various members previously and thought I’d put it here for discussion.

Could QF become a marketing airline but not the operating one on a broad scale?

Existing revenue-share agreements with AA and EK in place.
Soft demand initially and risk of own metal and cost to deliver (losses) if QF leaps too soon. But missed opportunity if wait too long.

Could QFi reopen initially as a “virtual” airline and just sell code on their major partners who are either willing to wear losses, underwritten or have local (ie. inbound to AU) demand sufficient to make it viable where’s QF doesn’t have enough outbound (Ed-AU) demand? Allowing Qantas to “top-up” the capacity the partners have deployed?

Could certainly see agreements reached with other carriers to cover long haul demand for quite a while. They’d also then get low risk market data and understand better when mid- and long-haul could tolerate extra capacity / own metal capacity.

Obviously they have a fleet of A380s and 787s/330s sitting around gathering dust which would cost money and they would want activated ASAP, but there would surely be aN intermediary point where selling code is more profitable than launching own-metal And deferring the reinstatement of own-metal services. I’m just wondering how big a window that is, and the relative costs/benefits in exploiting it.

I think it’s likely that their long haul when it initially reactivates will look very different (Less capacity, less routes etc than vs 2019 of course), but I’m wondering if there’s an opportunity between current (nil flights) and own-metal resumption that would be attractive to them.


Some would argue that they had been heading in that direction for a long time anyway and had finally got to the point of international frequency/routine expansion (Eg. Sunrise) right when it all fell over due to COVID.

I’m sure there’s some opinions out there....

 

[serfty]

Are Qantas selling codeshare seats on the AA operated flights?

 

[docjames]

No idea - but surely they’d be exploring it.....

 

[blackandwhite]

I think you under estimate the huge pent up demand for international travel. Talking to some health workers today & they are itching to go overseas & haven't been able to, due to crazy restrictions.

Talking to a few doctors today as well, who are booked to go skiing in USA in January & their Qantas flights are still very much alive in the system & they are all expecting to go.

 

[Mattg]

Talking to a few doctors today as well, who are booked to go skiing in USA in January & their Qantas flights are still very much alive in the system & they are all expecting to go.

Well they're in for a rude shock.

 

[blackandwhite]

Why ?

Think there's a very good chance they will go. New Zealand might have flights to USA & Australia/NZ flights look like a goer soon, but maybe not from Victoria.

 

[Mattg]

Why ?

Think there's a very good chance they will go. New Zealand might have flights to USA & Australia/NZ flights look like a goer soon, but maybe not from Victoria.

Qantas has no intention of operating international flights to the USA in January 2021. They have publicly stated this and no flights are currently available for new bookings. If those bookings are still alive in the system, it's probably because Qantas hasn't got around to cancelling them yet.

 

[Seat0B]

I think you under estimate the huge pent up demand for international travel. Talking to some health workers today & they are itching to go overseas & haven't been able to, due to crazy restrictions.

Talking to a few doctors today as well, who are booked to go skiing in USA in January & their Qantas flights are still very much alive in the system & they are all expecting to go.

Not sure how they will get exemptions to leave the country.

 

[docjames]

I'd say not cancelled as that way QF hold the cash and don't have to give a refund until cancelled.

Qantas has no intention of operating international flights to the USA in January 2021. They have publicly stated this and no flights are currently available for new bookings. If those bookings are still alive in the system, it's probably because Qantas hasn't got around to cancelling them yet.

They can always switch their travel to the AA flight if it's a mutually agreeable transfer cost, otherwise cancel and hand the cash back and travellers do their own rebooking.

 

[p--and--t]

I'd say not cancelled as that way QF hold the cash and don't have to give a refund until cancelled.

I'm probably going to be accused of being a bit harsh, but any travel operator still selling international discretionary travel ex AU before Feb next year I feel is effectively operating a quasi ponzi scheme. (especially cruise operators)

Understandable. Their business model has been decimated by factors beyond their control and in desperation many are hanging on by their fingernails.

Unfortunately many of the intrinsically good ones will not survive.

 

[blackandwhite]

talking 4 months away, not tomorrow. Why would you need an exemption in January ?

So Mattg, if you can fly to USA via NZ, Fiji or Asia, are you saying qantas will still not operate flights to USA ?

Joyce is playing games with unions/govts. He has to. Qantas is facing headwinds on bne-syd-mel big money earners & has to reduce costs, but unions will fight him on that.

P & T, do you live in that funny state, Vic ?

Qlders expect to fly overseas very soon to NZ & Fiji & elsewhere. Once there, they will be able to fly almost anywhere.

 

[docjames]

I'm probably going to be accused of being a bit harsh, but any travel operator still selling international discretionary travel ex AU before Feb next year I feel is effectively operating a quasi ponzi scheme. (especially cruise operators)

Understandable. Their business model has been decimated by factors beyond their control and in desperation many are hanging on by their fingernails.

Unfortunately many of the intrinsically good ones will not survive.

Not suggesting they are selling seats.

Suggesting the flights aren't going to go but not triggered as "cancelled" so the refunds are delayed and cash held until closer to the time.

Also not saying I disagree with their approach - they have to balance corporate financial imperatives and consumer friendliness.

 

[p--and--t]

talking 4 months away, not tomorrow. Why would you need an exemption in January ?

So Mattg, if you can fly to USA via NZ, Fiji or Asia, are you saying qantas will still not operate flights to USA ?

Joyce is playing games with unions/govts. He has to. Qantas is facing headwinds on bne-syd-mel big money earners & has to reduce costs, but unions will fight him on that.

P & T, do you live in that funny state, Vic ?

Qlders expect to fly overseas very soon to NZ & Fiji & elsewhere. Once there, they will be able to fly almost anywhere.

The world needs a good balance of optimists and pessimists. We need them all.

There are a group in the middle that listen to what has been already been announced on multiple occasions by our feds (who control the external borders) and presume (despite the nature of politicians) there is a reasonable likelihood they will follow through on their statements repeated many times over.

They are not even talking about having a bubble with NZ (the most likely first step at present) as being in place before new year.

 

[blackandwhite]

think almost all airlines are selling seats for departure in January to USA & elsewhere. Some have restricted schedules, some have very cheap seats as low as $777 return to LA departing early January. Think that was via Auckland. Did see the child fare, but are roughly 25% off I think.

 

[dajop]

think almost all airlines are selling seats for departure in January to USA & elsewhere. Some have restricted schedules, some have very cheap seats as low as $777 return to LA departing early January. Think that was via Auckland. Did see the child fare, but are roughly 25% off I think.

Welcome back to AFF, ozfflyer! It's been a while since we've heard from you.

 

[AIRwin]

Welcome back to AFF, ozfflyer! It's been a while since we've heard from you.

6 months?

 

[p--and--t]

Qlders expect to fly overseas very soon to NZ & Fiji & elsewhere. Once there, they will be able to fly almost anywhere.

Is that the same QLD I have been reading about or a different one?

You know the state that won't let parents of sick kids cross the border, where boarders can't see their parents during school holidays, where their own residents can't go for a drive in NSW without quarantining on the way back, the one where the Premier says her state border will be closed probably until near xmas, the one that only has state rights and zero control over AU's international border.

Maybe it's a different one. I'll have to google it and find where this place is

 

[Seat0B]

talking 4 months away, not tomorrow. Why would you need an exemption in January ?.

Qlders expect to fly overseas very soon to NZ & Fiji & elsewhere. Once there, they will be able to fly almost anywhere.

Well at the moment, you need an exemption to leave the country until the middle of December under the bio security laws. The weight of opinion I’ve seen suggests that this will again be extended for another 3 months before that expires unless there are some pretty major changes to the context.

Also, based on statements by the Prime Minister after National Cabinet, I’m pretty sure that Queenslanders won’t be flying anywhere overseas soon unless they do something about opening their internal borders.

 

[Seat0B]

Is that the same QLD I have been reading about or a different one?

You know the state that won't let parents of sick kids cross the border, where boarders can't see their parents during school holidays, where their own residents can't go for a drive in NSW without quarantining on the way back, the one where the Premier says her state border will be closed probably until near xmas, the one that only has state rights and zero control over AU's international border.

Maybe it's a different one. I'll have to google it and find where this place is

Awesome correct usage of ‘borders’ and ‘boarders’ all in the same sentence @p--and--t!
A fellow pedant I suspect. Nice to know I am not alone despite the best attempts of autocorrect to nobble me on a regular basis.

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

To the OP, and not the rest, could (QFi), yes.
Would they, though... (?)?
Most likely not.
The same as QFi virtual airline, would/could QF start to sell JQ flights again, ADL - DPS on JQ but with a QF flight number?
Could they, yes.
Would they, (?)? Probably not.
Yes, they (QFi) would gain from revenue share, if they and AA did fly SYD - LAX/SFO, starting from Jan, but Al (AJ/Alan Joyce) seems to be a tight mood of spending money, its all cut and cut, that he probably would'nt approve the virtual airline model AA & QFi tie in, as they (QF) would need to spend a bit first, to earn a bit.
Hey, they even got rid of their QFi CEO... when I first saw QF CEO, I thought, hey they are getting rid of Al, but then had a second read, turns out it was QFi CEO that got the chop, and not Al that got the chop.