Qantas - what will Coronavirus mean in the medium term?

[Pushka]

From a phone call today when trying to cancelling Bali without penalty (didn't happen so I left it) I get the impression that something is up this week.

 

[Melburnian1]

From a phone call today when trying to cancelling Bali without penalty (didn't happen so I left it) I get the impression that something is up this week.

What isn't "up" is passenger numbers, revenue and probably profit.

 

[Andz]

Better customer services to get back the loads of disgruntled ex frequent flyers.
Cleaner lounges

 

[Pushka]

What isn't "up" is passenger numbers, revenue and probably profit.

Well they are hardly alone. And a major airline, not an Aussie one, has requested a bailout just now. From the same phone call.
And this is just the Travel industry. This damn thing is shaking all industries not just travel.

 

[Lynda2475]

I notice the Qantas page (Coronavirus travel update | Qantas) now lists 8 QF flights wth known Covid-19 cases on board.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Wow, all in the last week or so.

customer sitting in the same row, or within two rows of these customers are at a higher risk of exposure.

Would have thought more distance between say 25A and 25K on a widebody, than between 25A and 28A

 

[jb747]

My guess is that at least some of the 380s are about to be parked. It will be very interesting to see if they come back.

 

[Melburnian1]

My guess is that at least some of the 380s are about to be parked. It will be very interesting to see if they come back.

Is it correct to suggest that, even if this virus was eliminated as an issue and travel demand went back to what it was say a year ago, that A380s have no (or a very small compared to their purchase price) value in the 'after market?'

If they're to be stabled, it could also mean Qantas abandons its refurbishment of perhaps half the fleet, although just how one varies the contract in such circumstances is the question. Force majeure?

 

[RSD]

Could you sprinkle some fairy dust and get Qantas to cancel DPS flights please? Effective next week?

OI!! We have QF Saver fare bookings and non-refundable hotel bookings so none of that talk please! Unfortunately I booked it before the DSC offer though

Post automatically merged: Mar 9, 2020

IF QF do decide to fly MEL or SYD via DXB to LHR then I'd be happy as can swap to Emirates in DXB for the Cairo leg.

 

[moa999]

Please remind me: are these A388 aircraft fully depreciated in the QF accounts?

Not old enough to be fully depreciated.

Think it's been fairly well established that a 2nd hand A380 isn't worth more than parts or scrap.

But I wouldn't be totally surprised if QF parks some A380s (and obviously defers the refurbs)

 

[RSD]

Is it correct to suggest that, even if this virus was eliminated as an issue and travel demand went back to what it was say a year ago, that A380s have no (or a very small compared to their purchase price) value in the 'after market?'

A380's already had nearly $0 resale value - a couple of aircraft leasing companies in Europe with ex-Malaysian (I think?) A380's have ended up scrapping them for parts value

 

[Melburnian1]

Steve Creedy has written something along those lines: Will the Airbus A380 be the next coronavirus victim? - Airline Ratings...

Very funny that he lists 'Australian (sic) Airlines' among Lufthansa's subsidiaries.

Memories...

 

[Pushka]

OI!! We have QF Saver fare bookings and non-refundable hotel bookings so none of that talk please! Unfortunately I booked it before the DSC offer though

Post automatically merged: Mar 9, 2020

IF QF do decide to fly MEL or SYD via DXB to LHR then I'd be happy as can swap to Emirates in DXB for the Cairo leg.

Our hotel bookings are non refundable but we enquired and they've moved them to December 2020. But we just can't risk the quarantine thing happening. It'll happen, just don't know when.

Post automatically merged: Mar 9, 2020

Not old enough to be fully depreciated.

Think it's been fairly well established that a 2nd hand A380 isn't worth more than parts or scrap.

But I wouldn't be totally surprised if QF parks some A380s (and obviously defers the refurbs)

I'm thinking maybe Princess F's dilemma might be no more F class so the 380s having a bit of a rest?

 

[Lynda2475]

So my employer has added the folowing to the list of countries that if visited require self qurantine for 14 days:

• Cambodia
• Hong Kong
• Indonesia
• Singapore
• Thailand

So if this stays that way upon return from my 5.5 week vacation in July, I will need to work from home for 2 weeks as am spending a night in SIngapore ont he way home. Interesting times ahead.

The coutries already on the list were China, Iran, South Korea, Mongolia, Italy, Japan.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Oil is down to USD35 a barrel. Maybe cheaper fuel (hedged now) will reduce fares and boost demand.

End of fuel surcharges on tickets and award tickets.

Ok... when you've picked yourself up from the floor laughing...

 

[Melburnian1]

So my employer has added the folowing to the list of countries that if visited require self qurantine for 14 days:

USA is an interesting omission.

 

[Pushka]

Oil is down to USD35 a barrel. Maybe cheaper fuel (hedged now) will reduce fares and boost demand.

End of fuel surcharges on tickets and award tickets.

Ok... when you've picked yourself up from the floor laughing...

Won't matter. We won't be able to go anywhere.

 

[Melburnian1]

Won't matter. We won't be able to go anywhere.

Yes, it's the fear of not being able to 'same day' go back to one's domicile that's driving much of the reduced demand for leisure passengers. For corporates, there's that, but also the attitude of insurers and most tellingly 'risk consultants' or whatever such w--kers are called, who appear to be advising en masse against travel.

Cheaper fares would usually be a great stimulant but this isn't a normal situation (and has elements of irrationality about it.)

 

[jase05]

My guess is that at least some of the 380s are about to be parked. It will be very interesting to see if they come back.

Looks like you may be on the money with up to 6 being potentially parked.
Also mentions in the article that now might be the perfect time to push ahead with Sunrise (this was predicted by someone on here a while ago)

Rumor: Qantas Preparing To Ground Airbus A380s

simpleflying.com

 

[Melburnian1]

As at 1555 AEDT on Monday 9 March, not long before the ASX closes for the day, QAN (i.e. QF) shares were 'off' (lovely word) 42 cents to $4.24, a 9.12 per cent drop. In one day that's a very large decrease for any share in percentage terms. On 3 January 2020, these shares closed at A$7.36 so that's a far bigger decline and shows how 'the market' has digested the virus news.

While beyond the scope of this blog, some investors must be facing margin calls. Not good for their financial 'health.'