Qantas Project Sunrise goes ahead, 12 new A350-1000s ordered

[levelnine]

PS flights compliment existing QF one-stop routes. If the loads out of MEL don’t justify launching one-stop, then it won’t happen. If peeps take their money elsewhere, then expect even less QF flights ex MEL.

Qantas has different strategies out of SYD and MEL to Europe.

QF competes out of SYD to LHR — they offer their best airplane (A380) with their most premium offering.

QF offer a mid-tier option at best out of MEL to LHR — their flagship product departing/arriving Australia is the A330! They've decided to cede a large amount of premium market share to their codeshare partner and competitors.

PS represents a continuation of that strategy.

 

[justinbrett]

“Use it” was clearly meaning booking trips on QF now. There aren’t non-stop flights ex SYD yet either but expected demand is already there.

PS flights compliment existing QF one-stop routes. If the loads out of MEL don’t justify launching one-stop, then it won’t happen. If peeps take their money elsewhere, then expect even less QF flights ex MEL.

Probably a safe bet that SIN-LHR will originate in MEL once PS starts, even if they use a 787 for the MEL/SIN leg.

The 6 aircraft that are planned to be used for existing routes, obviously don’t need the ULR, so perhaps when the LRs come into play, QF could swap some for their PS layout and use on those existing routes, freeing up the ULRs for routes like MEL/LHR.

Of course, QF could also just order more ULRs.

As you say, it will all depend on the market and how the initial PS flights do. QF has a track record of ordering aircraft and later saying “we should have ordered more”.

 

[MELso]

As you say, it will all depend on the market and how the initial PS flights do. QF has a track record of ordering aircraft and later saying “we should have ordered more”.

The original press release ordering the A350s and extra 787s did state they'd taken an unspecified number of options to buy more, so they can certainly ramp up the orders if the demand proves to be there.

 

[jrfsp]

Chicken and egg. QF doesn’t offer a reasonable flight option from MEL to SIN to connect with QF1 atm. QF can’t expect a massive improvement in bookings if they don’t improve their offering.

QF37 is perfectly timed to connect

 

[mviy]

QF37 is perfectly timed to connect

Timing is not everything. How many PE or F seats are available on QF37? The answer: None

Why would someone pay a premium for PE to get Y from MEL to SIN, or F to get J from MEL to SIN?

 

[Daver6]

Fortunately no airline has roaring wok burners in their galleys.

I’m always torn RE dine on demand. There’s always that one nob who thinks it’s the perfect time to eat while everyone else wants to sleep but can’t because of clinking cutlery…

QF could solve that with their wooden Y cutlery

 

[TeaKozy]

Probably a safe bet that SIN-LHR will originate in MEL once PS starts, even if they use a 787 for the MEL/SIN leg.

A 787 would be nice - however me thinks they'll opt for SYD-PER-ATH (or wherever else Vanessa suggested) given they've little issues putting the Dreamliner on domestic tags to Sydney (not to mention the free publicity flying a breakfast TV crew fully comped to Mykonos). Their intent is to grow the route network from their 'dual hubs', and the Dreamliner is inherently more versatile - as such, I doubt they'll bother changing the A330's on MEL-SIN until the replacement A350's come along. QF sees MEL as very much JQ country (as per Is Qantas really that Sydney centric?).

I don't particularly care so much about losing the non-stop (I avoid LHR like the plague) rather it's the expectation that we'll pay the same for a 737 recliner for 4+ hours. If they want us to fly via their western hub, give us back the domestic tag, especially now there's three routes (ME conflict notwithstanding), and at least offer a consistent product for the not insignificant price differential, and actually - y'know - compete.

 

[dajop]

Timing is not everything. How many PE or F seats are available on QF37? The answer: None

Why would someone pay a premium for PE to get Y from MEL to SIN, or F to get J from MEL to SIN?

I suspect the F market for MEL isn’t big enough to support EK and QF. Even SQ only offer 10 seats a day in F,.

PE will be once again available on QF from MEL to LHR come the end of October when QF9/10 returns to MEL as part of aircraft rotation that covers LAX, MEL, PER and LHR.

 

[TeaKozy]

PE will be once again available on QF from MEL to LHR come the end of October when QF9/10 returns to MEL as part of aircraft rotation that covers LAX, MEL, PER and LHR.

That is good news - is it seasonal?

 

[levelnine]

That is good news - is it seasonal?

It's in conjunction with the cancellation of the A380 on MEL-LAX. In MEL, what QF gives with one hand QF takes with the other

 

[dairyfloss]

On SYD vs MEL for PS, I wonder if it makes more sense to look at this with either AU city as a destination rather than an origin? Or maybe that will just upset MEL folks even more!

It's true that MEL & SYD are close in size, and that average & median incomes, and the demand for premium travel is similar out of both cities. But what is not true is that there is an equal amount of interest and international traffic headed to MEL as a gateway to Australia as there is into SYD. SYD continues to dominate this metric with more than half of all overseas visitor arrivals to the country starting out there.

With that in mind, this is probably as much if not more about selling F & J tickets to New Yorkers and Londoners for a non-stop flight to/from Australia as it is about the reverse, and if the majority of those from the US & UK are wanting to arrive in SYD - even if they visit MEL whilst down here - then it makes sense to focus on SYD first.

Supply goes to where the demand is greatest, and there still appears to be more demand at one than the other. If that changes, then they can move or add a PS route to/from MEL or another AU city, but there are less questions about viability when SYD is the O&D point.

Sorry MEL - I promise I still love you!

Cheers,
Matt.

 

[justinbrett]

On SYD vs MEL for PS, I wonder if it makes more sense to look at this with either AU city as a destination rather than an origin? Or maybe that will just upset MEL folks even more!

Not to mention both BA and AY adding flights to MEL

 

[mviy]

I don’t think anyone was expecting them not to do SYD first but until recently they had said/clearly implied they would do MEL straight after Sydney

 

[levelnine]

But what is not true is that there is an equal amount of interest and international traffic headed to MEL as a gateway to Australia as there is into SYD. SYD continues to dominate this metric with more than half of all overseas visitor arrivals to the country starting out there.

As the link TeaCozy already provided above notes, Qantas is a Sydney-centric airline.

The airline has roughly 25% of the international capacity out of SYD & roughly 15% of the international capacity out of MEL.

That means it is a far smaller player in MEL even after adjusting for the different sizes of the market.

The figures then look different when it comes to Jetstar. The Qantas Group treats MEL as a lower cost market.

That has allowed other carriers to take more of the premium market in MEL.

 

[747sp]

I understand that Qantas has 6 slots in Heathrow at the moment. The Perth flight is apparently very profitable. The one stop flight is going to continue and the new flight will take the last slots.
Qantas will know how profitable each flight is and at the moment it would appear the board is of the view that the three flights they have going to the UK are the best use of resources and Melbourne to London Heathrow is not expected to be as profitable as the existing flights.
Perhaps in the future they may look at more slots or flying to Gatwick .

 

[transpactraveller]

Not to mention both BA and AY adding flights to MEL

MEL is more competitive and often has cheaper international fares than the same destination from SYD.

I know people based in SYD who fly International business via MEL because it's cheaper than anything they can find direct from SYD.

Similarly fares on PER-LHR were usually higher than buying a MEL-PER-LHR onto the same plane!

It's no surprise QF are focusing on more profitable routes in less competitive markets with higher fares.

 

[dajop]

Similarly fares on PER-LHR were usually higher than buying a MEL-PER-LHR onto the same plane!

That is not surprising. On PER-LHR nonstop QF is the only carrier. One stop MEL-LHR has 7 strong competitors and numerous other secondary competitors. So it has to compete on price not just time advantage.

 

[Rich]

If Melbournians want non-stop LHR, start buying more QF flights (mainly EK codeshares or via SIN).

And Adelaidians should buy more international QF flights from ADL too.