Qantas Project Sunrise goes ahead, 12 new A350-1000s ordered

[justinbrett]

Think it really depends on global demand for F.. plenty of airlines have dumped it entirely with pax finding the J with door sufficient.

It was looking that way but seems to have reversed in recent years.

LAX-SYD is a celeb heavy route, as long as people are paying (and it seems they are), I can't see QF getting rid of it. A350 will have fewer F seats, similar to BA's twins, so I think it's almost guaranteed going forward. The fact the US airlines have or will dump them only strengthen the case for QF to keep it.

 

[burneracc]

Perth and Sydney also have a much higher proportion of British born residents than MEL (or BNE) does so that doesn’t help.

Yup spot on, have said this before - Perth UK born population is ~9.7%, myself being one of them. Sydney is only ~3.5% on the other hand, but being a global city, has much more of a claim to supporting PS with far stronger ties to London than Melbourne does. This likely also partly plays into why QF9/10 ex-MEL was cancelled.

 

[justinbrett]

Yup spot on, have said this before - Perth UK born population is ~9.7%, myself being one of them. Sydney is only ~3.5% on the other hand, but being a global city, has much more of a claim to supporting PS with far stronger ties to London than Melbourne does. This likely also partly plays into why QF9/10 ex-MEL was cancelled.

But percentages don't fill seats, total numbers do.

I'm Australian born and I go to the UK at least once often twice a year, so it's not everything.

 

[burneracc]

But percentages don't fill seats, total numbers do.

I'm Australian born and I go to the UK at least once often twice a year, so it's not everything.

PER-LHR is commonly regarded one of the most profitable route QF fly. Seats are almost always full. Average flight load is 94% according to QF. I am sure they would not have axed the MEL leg of QF9/10 if it would have impacted flight load significantly.

 

[TheInsider]

This likely also partly plays into why QF9/10 ex-MEL was cancelled.

this was purely based on aircraft rotation.

 

[justinbrett]

PER-LHR is commonly regarded one of the most profitable route QF fly. Seats are almost always full. Average flight load is 94% according to QF. I am sure they would not have axed the MEL leg of QF9/10 if it would have impacted flight load significantly.

I'm not saying you're wrong, just pointing out it's strange to say because one smaller city has a higher percentage of UK born than a larger city - and I know you weren't the first to say this.

Saying that PER has more UK born than MEL is valid - it was just weird to be talking about proportions or percentages. They're irrelevant.

And then of course my point that many people flying to LHR are Australian born.

PER-LHR is very popular, but I think that's mostly a function of being the most westerly capital and a logical gateway for Europe. You can barely get a CR seat on QF1/2 either so - breaking news, Aussies like flying to London.

 

[dajop]

this was purely based on aircraft rotation.

And presumably for the same reason it is resuming come the next southern summer timetable. So not gone forever.

 

[Melburnian1]

Sadly I think it’s reflective of the economic malaise in Victoria at the moment. Whether or not that will turn around is anyone’s guess, but it’s a very sickly environment right now.

Yes, a good point: companies historically Melbourne-based such as the listed on ASX Myer have singled out Victoria for less than stellar retail sales.

 

[elanshin]

I'm confused at the outrage about MEL. It was always going to be SYD to begin with. And by the time QF has enough planes to even consider the next port we'd be a couple of years into ops (likely 2028/2029).

If QF1 -4 (assuming both LHR and JFK inherit the flagship numbers) prove to be a roaring success, they will assess the data and decide. It could also be a total flop and they pivot the 350ULRs into other routes.

In the meantime I'm more interested to see what they do with the 380 routes once PS is going. Given we see some shuffling already (AY 330 to HND), i suspect some network shakeups are going to be happening.


Edit: also from memory with the way the initial marketing was done, wasn't the options:
SYD-LHR
SYD-JFK
PER-LHR
MEL-LHR

I don't think we're even close to all 12 frames (or even 10-11 assuming one goes tech) running the first 3 routes. That would be what 7-9 frames? What are the last 2-4 frames going to do?

 

[dajop]

Yes, a good point: companies historically Melbourne-based such as the listed on ASX Myer have singled out Victoria for less than stellar retail sales.

Although the Sunrise timeframes are not this year and more likely to be circa 2030. Four years or so is a long time in the state of economies, and the economies of states.

Personally I would not all be surprised that they go double daily SYD-LHR before looking at MEL (if they can get the schedule to work).

 

[levelnine]

I'm confused at the outrage about MEL. It was always going to be SYD to begin with. And by the time QF has enough planes to even consider the next port we'd be a couple of years into ops (likely 2028/2029).

If QF1 -4 (assuming both LHR and JFK inherit the flagship numbers) prove to be a roaring success, they will assess the data and decide. It could also be a total flop and they pivot the 350ULRs into other routes.

In the meantime I'm more interested to see what they do with the 380 routes once PS is going. Given we see some shuffling already (AY 330 to HND), i suspect some network shakeups are going to be happening.


Edit: also from memory with the way the initial marketing was done, wasn't the options:
SYD-LHR
SYD-JFK
PER-LHR
MEL-LHR

I don't think we're even close to all 12 frames (or even 10-11 assuming one goes tech) running the first 3 routes. That would be what 7-9 frames? What are the last 2-4 frames going to do?

No one is saying Qantas will not change its routes to adapt to changing circumstances. No one can predict the future, including Qantas.

What's noticeable (not a cause for outrage in my opinion, but noticeable) is that Qantas executives, including Hudson, pitched PS as a SYD/MEL project. One of many, many, many quotes:

'The upcoming long-haul flights will be “a great way for Australians to break out and see the world on the A350”.

“This will set the tyranny of distance as a thing of the past. It’s going to enable us to fly from Sydney and Melbourne to New York direct and also to London direct,” Hudson added.'

Today they announced PS as a SYD/PER project with no plan for changes to MEL, apart from a possible upgauge of existing routes.

That's a noteworthy pivot.

 

[mbe1510]

The Melburnians on this forum are certainly good for a chuckle. Other airlines may be able to fill business class cabins because, in SQ’s case, passengers are dispersing to many different onward destinations.

The real question is whether there is enough corporate demand from Melbourne to London to sustain a daily service because if Sydney fails then Melbourne won't work. Most multinationals and major corporate HQs are in Sydney, and they are the ones paying cash for business class.

More interesting is what happens to QF1/2 and whether the Singapore routing sticks long-term or gets cut once more A350ULRs arrive and what flight times they give it.
I could see the physical aircraft starting in Sydney given they are about to run double daily A380s to Singapore.

 

[Cognac]

I'm confused at the outrage about MEL.

Same. Confused and amused. There was also outrage when QF9/10 was dropped from MEL. Meanwhile, those of us in Perth don't mind a little extra attention. QF F has never been an option out of Perth, so it'll be a new experience for WA flyers.

PER-LHR is very popular, but I think that's mostly a function of being the most westerly capital and a logical gateway for Europe.

IIRC wasn't BA also considering a LHR-PER direct option at some point? And QF has been going on about creating their Western Hub for a few years. Now that the airport is getting closer to actually having its second runway (due to open in 2028) and a consolidated set of terminals it makes sense for the airline to take it a bit more seriously. I'm not saying in any way that MEL doesn't deserve to also be taken seriously, but my guess is that Qantas sees better short/medium-term outcomes by improving their offerings from PER, versus more marginal gains for the MEL market.

 

[Melburnian1]

The real question is whether there is enough corporate demand from Melbourne to London to sustain a daily service because if Sydney fails then Melbourne won't work. Most multinationals and major corporate HQs are in Sydney, and they are the ones paying cash for business class.

Many J class passengers are retirees or couples, sometimes the latter even with children.

The days of the J cabin being exclusively for corporate flyers such as fund managers have long passed.

Melbourne is home to two of the largest four Oz-domiciled banks in NAB and ANZ, many manufacturers who generate a lot of freight/logistics, sporting-related entities (the powerhouse that is the AFL - a more popular code than Rugby League), transport companies (think Linfox)...list goes on.

Plus special sporting events held in Melbourne (Australian Grand Prix, Australian Open, Boxing Day Test, Melbourne Cup) attract far more visitors than anything sporting in Sydney.

So not as if there's nil corporate demand from MEL.

Melbourne is constantly ignored by Qantas' international division: no flights to JFK, LHR, MNL, JNB, SCL and HND to name a few.

QFi must have gained market share since 28 February 2026 due to the problems affecting EK, QR and EY with the Iran v Israel/USA conflict but this (God willing) is a temporary setback.

 

[dajop]

More interesting is what happens to QF1/2 and whether the Singapore routing sticks long-term or gets cut once more A350ULRs arrive and what flight times they give it.

They could downguage. But unless QF can persuade the UK authorities to let sunrise to leave at 23:00 or so during the northern winter and 01:00 during the northern summer I think QF1/2 will stay to offer that evening LHR departure for SYD that sunrise won’t be able to (probably latest that SR can depart and still arrive before curfew is either 4pm or 6pm depending on time of year).

 

[levelnine]

Many J class passengers are retirees or couples, sometimes the latter even with children.

The days of the J cabin being exclusively for corporate flyers such as fund managers have long passed.

Indeed, Qantas' own investment case for Project Sunrise relies extensively on premium leisure travelers:

 

[747sardine]

The Melburnians on this forum are certainly good for a chuckle. Other airlines may be able to fill business class cabins because, in SQ’s case, passengers are dispersing to many different onward destinations.

The real question is whether there is enough corporate demand from Melbourne to London to sustain a daily service because if Sydney fails then Melbourne won't work. Most multinationals and major corporate HQs are in Sydney, and they are the ones paying cash for business class.

More interesting is what happens to QF1/2 and whether the Singapore routing sticks long-term or gets cut once more A350ULRs arrive and what flight times they give it.
I could see the physical aircraft starting in Sydney given they are about to run double daily A380s to Singapore.

Agree it's a struggle to see how it could be sustained for both Mel and Syd together. QF had to "neglect" Melbourne through business necessity. Now we're all trained to use other airlines I can't see MEL supporting a direct LHR (or NYC) service.

 

[sevenfourtyseven]

Could have at least waited till there were engines installed for photo shoot!

Cue the jokes about it never "getting off the ground"