Qantas Delays/Cancellations

[Melburnian1]

Saturday 21 November 2015's QF2 departed LHR on time at 2035 hours and today (Sunday 22Z) pulled in to the DXB terminal 17 minutes early at 0718. However it then stayed longer than the alloted, departing 86 minutes late at 1101 hours and on Monday 23 November is expected to be on blocks at SYD at 0810, 100 minutes behind time.

The late night QF9 ex MEL on Saturday 21 did not depart until 0133 this morning - 128 minutes tardy - and arrived DXB at 0813, 107 minutes late. It then departed at 0951, 76 minutes late and is expected to be 65 minutes late into LHR at 1400 on Sunday 22 November.

Sunday's QF164 from WLG to SYD is expected in 97 minutes late at 1927, in an hour or so. As a result QF139 is forecast to be 95 minutes behind time in departing at 2020 hours.

 

[Melburnian1]

Monday 23 November's QF93 departed MEL at 1202, 42 minutes late and is forecast to arrive at LAX at 0720 hours, 45 minutes late with A388 VH-OQG as the operating aircraft.

 

[Turbo-g]

QF10 is not arriving tonight (Wednesday 18 November) in MEL, probably due to low season and QF's cancellation of some LHR flights, which if I recall it also did in 2014.

This is an airline that claims demand is robust for its own metal flights, yet it is not so long ago that QF ran via Bangkok, Hong Kong and Singapore using its own planes, not largely EK's, to London, and daily to Frankfurt. How its own metal European flights have diminished - it cannot now even fill a single A380 ex MEL for DXB and LHR every day during low season months like November....

Thanks Melburnian1 for the updates, I for one appreciate the effort and the information. Regarding QF10 i am booked on this flight departing LHR on 4th Jan 2016 and being the Christmas/New Year HIgh period rush is there any potential for delays/cancellations? I know its a long way off but not sure if this is the QF Christmas greeting i should be looking forward to? Any previous intel on this happening around this time of the year?

 

[Melburnian1]

Turbo-g, it is way too far off to make any predictions.

However it is winter over there, but at least the QF1 to QF10 normal turnaround is several hours so that gives a bit of a buffer. The timetables are also a bit slower than they were prior to the summer-winter UK time change, so in theory that also makes it easier to keep to timetable.

What I would do is watch the departure of QF1 on 3 January 2016 and see if it's on time. QF1 ex SYD tends to have a better timekeeping record than the MEL - LHR QF flight (QF9) so that's somewhat reassuring.

Try to look up the posts in this thread from 11 months ago as a rough guide to what occurred early in 2015, but as stated above that does not mean that anything similar will occur when you travel.

Other reasons for delays and cancellations can include one (or very, very occasionally more) A388s becoming defective and requiring unplanned maintenance. Most of the time QF has one of its 12 A388s in maintenance, typically as I understand it in Manila, but that's not a concern as it is built in and known. The unplanned maintenance can (in a worst case) create what AFF member JohnPhelan rightly called 'rolling 24 hour delays': these have occurred at least a couple of times in 2015 with the LHR routes worst hit, so that's what travellers have to be on the lookout for.

While not directly relevant since the two types of aircraft are not easily substitutable due to crewing and other issues, it appears that over Christmas and into January QF may be working its B744s even harder. Whether that translates into problematic operation is yet to be seen but as a general comment it is logical that unplanned breakdowns have a greater propensity to increase when maintenance crews are under pressure due to tighter schedules and more intensive working. That's certainly true for surface transport!

 

[Himeno]

How much 'slack' does the 747 fleet have? Can they even push the fleet harder then they are at the moment?
They send the 380s to Lufthansa Technik for heavy maintenance (ie, C and D checks). Routine maintenance is done overnight and between flights at MEL, SYD, LAX, DFW and LHR (with the aircraft on the ground at LAX for 13 hours, at DFW for 7 hours and LHR for 5 hours between flights).

 

[moa999]

I suspect over the holiday periods they create slack by not having an aircraft scheduled for major mx, but generally QF has been pushing its fleet a lot tighter recently

 

[Melburnian1]

QF94 (A388 VH-OQH), the Sunday 22 November 2015 2215 hours from LAX to MEL took off at 2354. It will pick up time en route but is forecast to arrive in MEL at 0945 on Tuesday 24 November instead of 0905. The 1120 QF93 on Tuesday morning may be marginally late departing as a result, assuming nothing 'extra' such as a mechanical or electrical defect occurs.

 

[Melburnian1]

Himeno and the amazing moa999, one example of increased flights for the QF B744s has been the rise in SYD - SCL flights to five a week, along with the shortly to appear reintroduction of SYD - SFO and the seasonal recommencement of SYD - YVR if I am not mistaken.

Oz east coast - LAX weekly B744 flights are reducing though.

I have not done a weekly utilisation analysis (there are some oddities such as the QF SYD - HKG route varying in 'equipment' during the Christmas and New Year period) but overall the result must be a further utilisation rise in hours per week.

It will be very interesting to observe if this leads to problems.

Once again we may all have to revisit JohnPhelan and other AFFers' comments about QF being most unwise to have withdrawn those two older B744s.

It strikes me as good practice if a transport operator can afford it to have spare equipment or rollingstock. Airlines are capital intensive and there is probably a significant cost (meeting of government airworthiness stipulations, finding available tarmac or hangar space, obtaining spare parts, having sufficient LAMEs and perhaps regularly testing the aircraft) to keeping older aircraft fit for operation, but those two aircraft must have been fully depreciated and may well have proven their worth during school holidays, Christmas and Easter when the pressure is on and yields per seat can rise due to more of we locals or foreigners wanting to travel.

But then I am not an expert - it simply strikes me as commonsense provided the likely passenger and freight revenue exceeds the fixed and marginal costs combined, and with no diminishing of a safety record as a precondition to keeping such equipment.

 

[Melburnian1]

Monday 23 November's QF128 departed HKG three hours and 13 minutes behind time, arriving SYD this morning at 1036, two hours and 41 minutes tardy.

It then formed QF127 from SYD to HKG today (Tuesday 24 November 2015) in the form of B744 VH-OJS that departed exactly three hours late, with arrival expected at 2035 after picking up a whole 10 minutes on the schedule. Recently introduced QF117, the 1315 hours flight (formed by A333 VH_QPI) departed 23 minutes late at 1338 and is forecast to be in 'Honkers' (shocking name that I commit to not using again) 20 minutes late at 2000 hours. This may be the first time that the latter flight has beaten QF127 into the Chinese SAR as it is known.

Tonight's (Tuesday 24 November's) QF128 is expected to depart HKG 55 minutes late at 2040 with Wednesday 25 arrival in the Australian Harbour City at 0830, 35 minutes late.

QF's punctuality on the SYD - HKG route is usually quite good; if anything, CX's can be more variable with causes including delays to connecting flights due to mainland Chinese military flights taking precedence or necessitating temporary closure of an airfield.

 

[Melburnian1]

Once again QF93 from MEL to LAX was late today (Wednesday 25 November), departing MEL at 1338 (138 minutes behind time) with arrival in LAX forecast at 0815, an even 100 minutes late.

QF1506 from HBA to MEL is also significantly tardy. It was meant to depart at 1720 this afternoon, but was in the air at 1855, meaning a MEL arrival at 2015 or so in lieu of 1835 to form the 'last' (QF own metal) to HBA at about 2050 ex MEL instead of the usual 1925 hours tonight.

 

[Melburnian1]

The 0630 MEL to SYD QF404 did not take off until 0745 hours on Thursday 26 November and hence will not arrive until 0843, 48 minutes late. B738 VH-VZU is the plane.

 

[Quickstatus]

Once again QF93 from MEL to LAX was late today (Wednesday 25 November), departing MEL at 1338 (138 minutes behind time) with arrival in LAX forecast at 0815, an even 100 minutes late

is that a common scenario with 93?.

do you think its related to the enhanced fleet utilization?

 

[Melburnian1]

Quickstatus, up until recently QF93 had a pretty good - not perfect - timekeeping performance.

Whether one can attribute the recemnt problems to increased hours of fleet utilisation is a moot point, because the A388 Airbus involved should have in excess of 10 hours on the ground at LAX before running QF94 to MEL and then returning to LAX as QF93. In theory the significant time at LAX should allow for a reasonable 'go' at maintenance, but as with all transport equipment, things can and do go wrong and as some of AFF's aviation industry employees have said, aircraft are more complex beasts that was the case a couple of decades ago - more advanced, but also apparently with more possible malfunctions.

This morning (Thursday 26 November 2015) QF93 is showing as delayed from 1120 to 1150 in its MEL departure. That time can sometimes be picked up en route, but there is of course no guarantee that it will be off blocks exactly then.

UPDATE: While QF93 did not depart from MEL until 1216, 56 minutes late, it is forecast to arrive at teh LAX gate at 0610, 25 minutes early, meaning a net gain of an hour and 21 minutes on the timetable. And yet flights the other way - admittedly not at identical times of the day - are also gaining time (see below.)

 

[JohnPhelan]

is that a common scenario with 93?.

do you think its related to the enhanced fleet utilization?

If there is a delay to QF94, for whatever reason, this will affect QF93, as the aircraft is scheduled to be on the ground in MEL for just over two hours. That's a tight turnaround for an A380, so if the aircraft is late inbound, it will very likely be late outbound.

As Melburnian1 notes, there's a solid block of time on the ground in LAX at the other end, so a late 93 should not lead to a late 94. It's the absence of this "recovery time" in MEL that can cause problems.

 

[Melburnian1]

Thursday 26 November 2015's QF1507 is badly late for at least the second time this week, with its timetabled departure from MEL delayed by an anticipated 85 minutes from 1925 tonight to 2100 and arrival in HBA likely at 2215 rather than 2040.

Earlier, QF1505 had departed MEL 100 minutes behind time at 1705, arriving HBA at 1812 rather than 1640. This indicates no spare B717 was obtainable. Even earlier, QF1503 had pulled out from the MEL terminal 52 minutes late at 1227 and exactly maintained the schedule to HBA, arriving at 1342.

The day ex HBA commenced with QF1500 departing 14 minutes late at 0604 but arriving MEL 22 minutes late at 0727 hours.

Ex MEL started with a half hour late departure southbound of QF1501 at 0815 and again exactly the same tardiness in reaching the HBA gate at 0930. Going northbound, QF1502 reached MEL at 1124, 29 minutes late so it appears that any significant defect or other cause occurred between QF1502's arrival in MEL at 0930 and its tardier departure at 1152 as QF1503, and then delays continued to increase during the day.

It is unrealistic to expect the QF contractor, which if I recall is Cobham, to have a spare B717 based in MEL 'just in case' (given the capital cost of such aircraft) but this situation (far from the first time it has been recorded in these QF delays) shows the difficulty of relying upon a type of transport equipment that (in this case) is very different from what we might call the 'industry standard' of a B738 or A320 for these 'smaller' capital city routes that normally do not justify provision of a wide bodied aircraft.

One well informed AFFer commented some months ago that the delays affecting the MEL - HBA B717 QF route were largely at the MEL end of the trips. Someone else said that QF was introducing a new timetable. That seemed to operate better for a while.

While covered in a separate thread, the 'last' JQ this evening southbound is also late.

 

[Melburnian1]

The Wednesday 25 November's QF12 departed LAX 52 minutes late at 2322 and is forecast to arrive in SYD at 0910, 40 minutes behind time on Friday 27.

Conversely, QF94 on the same evening departed LAX at 2211 - four minutes ahead - and is expected in MEL at 0805, 60 minutes early. I have not looked at FlightAware - Flight Tracker / Flight Status / Flight Tracking takeoff times but perhaps QF12 spent a lot longer waiting for ATC to give takeoff clearance, as its net gain of 12 minutes on the timetable compared to a rather different net gain (gate to gate) of an anticipated 56 minutes for the Melbourne-bound A388.

QF117 on Thursday 26 November left SYD 40 minutes late at 1355 and is suggested as arriving HKG an even hour late at 2040 tonight. QF118 is not timetabled to depart until 2135 so expect it to be marginally late.

Wed 25 November's QF28 from SCL to SYD departed 19 minutes late at 1354, so nothing untoward there, but subsequently diverted to MEL arriving tonight (Thursday 26 November) at 1848 and departing at 2004 with arrival in SYD having just occurred at 2123 instead of the usual AEDT time of 1745 hours. From what I can see on www.flightaware.com the aircraft appears to have tracked to just north of CBR then retreated south to MEL for a stop on the ground. As www.theqantassource.com has yet to comment, anyone with better information might kindly let us know.

QF25 from SYD to HND tonight has supposedly been delayed from the timetabled 2130 hours departure to 2240, but this seems very ambitious for a B744 turnaround.

I am not suggesting it is 'impossible': we will know in a couple of hours, and perhaps QF25 has a 'dispensation from curfew' already granted by the Federal Minister's 'delegate' but as many of us know the latter must satisfy some preconditions. If we look a few posts above this, I linked to the attachment explaining that in detail.

QF63 from SYD to JNB today departed 62 minutes late at 1237 and is forecast by QF to lose further time on its long westbound leg, arriving in South Africa's major city at 1830, an hour and 55 minutes late. QF64 returning is forecast to depart at 2025 rather than 1850 with Friday 27 November arrival 75 minutes late at 1655 hours.

One day's delays may be an isolated case but a few posts above someone asked about possible stresses on the B744 QF fleet from tighter rotations. The above may be an early clue.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF25 has just departed from SYD for HND 86 minutes late at 2256 (although it did not take off until about 2315, after curfew) but with favourable flying conditions is expected to be in the latter at 0545 on Friday 27 November, only 15 minutes late. This morning's arrival was at the terminal at 0434, almost an hour early. Tonight's effort was a good one, to turn around a B744 in an hour and 33 minutes, but it was presumably a close call to avoid an extra night in SYD for passengers (and a new crew?) and by the look of things required approval of a dispensation to take off after 2300 hours.

 

[Quickstatus]

Wed 25 November's QF28 from SCL to SYD departed 19 minutes late at 1354, so nothing untoward there, but subsequently diverted to MEL arriving tonight (Thursday 26 November) at 1848 and departing at 2004 with arrival in SYD having just occurred at 2123 instead of the usual AEDT time of 1745 hours. From what I can see on www.flightaware.com the aircraft appears to have tracked to just north of CBR then retreated south to MEL for a stop on the ground. As www.theqantassource.com has yet to comment, anyone with better information might kindly let us know.

Perhaps it was weather related. Was windy this afternoon causing arrival delays - diverted due to unfavourable fuel calculations?

Supported by the flightaware map showing the resumed flight had to do a holding pattern north east of CBR?

The diversion probably not medical as MEL is further away from SYD at point of diversion?

 

[Melburnian1]

The QF10 arrival on Thursday 26 November at MEL arrived eight minutes ahead at 2112, but returning QF9, the 2325 hours did not depart until 0035 this morning (Friday 27.) It is expected to arrive DXB at 0714, 44 minutes late but the slower schedule now applying to LHR may mean an early or on time arrival assuming that it does not remain on the ground in the Middle East for an extended period.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF11 on Friday 27 November departed at 1309, an hour and 39 minutes behind time, from SYD to LAX. It should arrive at 0703 rather than 0635, picking up 61 minutes as it crosses the Pacific.

QF147 from SYD to AKL (B738 ZK-ZQG) took off at 1930 yet had a 1700 departure time, so expect it to arrive in AKL a couple of hours behind time.