Qantas Delays/Cancellations

[jb747]

QF94 is going via BNE tonight.

Any particular reason? Weather is okay.

 

[milehighclub]

Any particular reason? Weather is okay.

Only 3 pilot operation

 

[RSD]

Only 3 pilot operation

Did AJ send the 4th pilot on leave a day early?

 

[Melburnian1]

On Tuesday 10 March, it departed LAX 42 minutes late at 2332 and should arrive BNE at its gate at about 0610 on Thursday 12. If it say departs after 45 minutes at 0655, it could be in MEL (given the one hour time difference) at about 1000-15. This should just be in sufficient time to form a punctual QF35 to SIN, the 1210 hours early lunchtime flight that soon will no longer be an A388 (though neither will QF94.)

QF94 was in BNE from 0616 to 0747 hours, arriving MEL at 1112 hours, 142 minutes late on Thursday 12 March.

Thsi meant QF35 from MEL pushed back at 1250 hours (40 late) with expected SIN at gate arrival 1735, half an hour behind schedule.

 

[Melburnian1]

Also on Thursday 12 March, QF11, the 1010 hours SYD - LAX was cancelled. The QF flight status page shows '1200' against it, suggesting that is when the cancellation occurred. Was it a defective aircraft?

Due to this, 'the 12' (2230 hours LAX redeye to SYD) has also been cancelled on the same day.

QF63 departed SYD with its B744 49 late at 1224 this afternoon. Expected JNB arrival is 1725 hours, 50 minutes behind so the returning QF64 redeye (the 1850 hours) will be delayed by perhaps 20-25 minutes in pushback, but usually seems to make up time en route.

The 1730 hours afternoon MEL - DPS QF45 B738 is not specifically showing as 'cancelled' but it is not operating today. IIRC this isn't one of QFI's many planned frequency reductions (or cancellations for the next few weeks or longer.)

 

[Melburnian1]

Friday 13 March 2020 sees QF63, the 11354 hours late morning long B744 flight departing SYd 34 late with anticipated arrival a similar half an hour behind at 1705, so any departure delay to 'the 64' redeye (the 1850 hours ex JNB) should be small.

QF1 this afternoon is predicted to depart 75 minutes late from SYD at 1815 hours. The SIN intermediate stop should be from 2305, an hour late, but in line with the website's flight status' practice of often not updating a departure time until the initial sector has the plane at cruise, there's no change showing from the normal 2355 hours pushback ex SIN. In practice, this flight seems to occasionally get the stop down to about 85 minutes but I can't recall having seen it done in less.

While I don't normally mention early running, Thursday's QF11 from LAX pushed back 20 minutes ahead at 0800 hours, arriving JFK at 1540 hours, 50 minutes early. One can't say this has not previously occurred but it's very rare.

 

[Melburnian1]

Also on Friday 13 March, QF37, the 1720 hours afternoon MEL - SIN was displaying as 20 minutes delayed but in the end it pushed back at 1752 with arrival suggested as 2303 hours, 48 minutes late.

The B738 on QF45 departed MEL at 1757 hours, 27 minutes tardy with likely DPS at gate arrival 2118 hours, 48 late.

Earlier, QF64 from JNB (that had pushed back last night 54 late at 1944 hours) arrived SYD at 1610, 35 behind.

 

[Silvia]

Also QF833 CBR-MEL (B738 VH-VXS) has a revised arrival at 20 45, 95 tardy.

QF1016 HBA-MEL is suggested to arrive at 20 33, 83 late (B738 VH-VXN).

QF457 SYD-MEL (B738 VH-XZF) has a tentative arrival at 20 45, 85 min behind

 

[Kangol]

While I don't normally mention early running, Thursday's QF11 from LAX pushed back 20 minutes ahead at 0800 hours, arriving JFK at 1540 hours, 50 minutes early. One can't say this has not previously occurred but it's very rare.

Wednesday's LAX-JFK QF11 was supposed to be about 30 mins early however at the last moment before landing, the pilot had to abandon because the aircraft in front had not left the runway in time.

Sunday's QF12 JFK-LAX is cancelled, got a notification and have been moved to an AA flight. Any idea why? Loads?

 

[Melburnian1]

...Sunday's QF12 JFK-LAX is cancelled, got a notification and have been moved to an AA flight. Any idea why? Loads?

That's unusual, especially because QF15 from BNE is showing as operating on Sunday 15 March.

Ides of March hehe? AFFer and QFi staffer milehighclub may be kind enough to provide us with the reason, but given that 'The Oz' yesterday in a major story mentioned that a QFi flight from HKG to SYD in the last few days had just 39 passengers on an A330, one probably can't eliminate what you mention as a possibility.

 

[Kangol]

That's unusual, especially because QF15 from BNE is showing as operating on Sunday 15 March.

Ides of March hehe? AFFer and QFi staffer milehighclub may be kind enough to provide us with the reason, but given that 'The Oz' yesterday in a major story mentioned that a QFi flight from HKG to SYD in the last few days had just 39 passengers on an A330, one probably can't eliminate what you mention as a possibility.

Yeah, it's possible that they'll only fly the 787 to LAX only and not to JFK.
Oddly enough when you search BNE-JFK for Sunday, you can't get QF15/11.
The only available QF11 LAX-JFK looks to be a glitch as: BNE-ADL-SYD-LAX on QF667/730/11/11 (yes they are listing both segments of the 11)

 

[flydoc]

QF1851, the dual-leg CNS-AYQ-ASP operated by B712 VH-NXO, remains at its intermediate stop after arriving 14 min early at 0846 ACST. The QF website suggests it was due to depart at 1230, 2 hours later than scheduled, but this appears not to have occurred.
QF1854, the return ASP-AYQ-CNS service due to be operated by the same aircraft is not yet listed as cancelled.
QF1934, the ASP-PER service has had a planned diversion to AYQ - one suspects to drop off an engineer and any pax for AYQ - so will itself be delayed into PER.

Edit: QF1851 just departing AYQ for ASP now (1340ACST) and will likely continue to CNS from there as QF1854

 

[Melburnian1]

On Sunday 15 December 2020, QF79 departed MEL a minute late at 0921 hours but diverted to CNS where the stop was from 1259 hours to 1401. Expected NRT arrival is 2040 hours, three hours late. VH-QPJ is the A333. QFi has yet to publicly indicate whether QF80 to MEL or its BNE cousin of a redeye WF62 will be delayed. It isn't the case with the QFi reductions in flight frequencies that each of these operates daily, but tonight both are.

Was this a medical diversion? The aircraft turned back when it had almost reached Thursday Island, so it wasn't a straightfoward diversion, as it involved backtracking. Presumably it was easier (and preferable) to turn back to CNS rather than use 'foreign' POM as an alternate intermediate stop.

The B744 on QF27, the 1245 hours lunchtime SYD - SCL long flight was much delayed, pushing back at 1434 hours. Arrival is a suggested 1227 hours, 77 late. This will delay the returning QF28 by about an hour instead of departing at 1335.

QF9, the 1650 hours MEL across to PER has been cancelled. QF10 (B789 VH-ZNB) is about to arrive in PER at 1232 hours, two minutes late, but is also cancelled from PER across to MEL, suggesting that ZNB will return this evening to LHR on 'the 9.' On some other occasions, QFi has found an A332 or even B738 to operate the domestic MEL - PER - MEL sectors. Maybe this is informative as to the state of bookings - declining.

A special from SYD up to HNL, B744 VH_OEE, departed on Saturday 14 March at 1844, 49 late, arriving same day at 0645 hours, half an hour tardy. However it's shortly arriving on its return to SYD (QF104) only five late at 1540 hours.

 

[Melburnian1]

Monday 16 March 2020 has QF12 from LAX to SYD arriving at 0815 hours, 50 minutes late as on Saturday night, 14 March, it pushed back 54 late at 2324 hours.

Saturday 14's 2250 hours LAX to MEL, QF94, did not push back until 0112 hours on Sunday 15 so Monday 16 expected at gate arrival is 1044 hours, 114 minutes late. As a result, today's QF35 is predicted to push back 40 late in MEL at 1250 hours, arriving SIN at 1740, 35 late.

QF472, the 0615 hours MEL - SYD was cancelled as was QF464, the 0630 hours and QF410, the 0715 hours. QF418, the 0900 hours on the same route is also getting the flick.

QF405 (0630 hours SYD down to MEL) got the boot, as did QF417, the 0830 hours southbound to MEL.

QF516, the 1000 hours SYD up to BNE has also been cut on 16 March.

Later in the morning, QF428, the offpeak 1130 hours MEL - SYD is also not to run. QF442, the 1500 hours is also cancelled.

Southbound QF431, the 1200 'high noon' SYD down to MEL is also booted. QF439, the 1400 hours on the same route is also cancelled.

AFFer TheInsider in the last few months claimed that flights are not cancelled due to 'low bookings.' I didn't believe that then, and certainly don't now with COVID-19 resulting in mass cancellations internationally and now domestically.

One assumes that because so many morning flights have got the boot, a similar pattern will emerge later in the day for afternoon flights. From memory on a 'normal' weekday (though Tuesdays and Wednesdays are quieter), QFd may operate about 46 flights in each direction MEL - SYD- MEL, by far Australia's busiest route. With six flights already displaying as cancelled by 0800 hours, and more likely, it's not inconceivable that today 30 per cent of flights (at least) may not operate.

However cancellations on other routes don't seem to be as much a problem at present, perhaps partly because lower frequencies mean airlines (if wanting to still provide a service) have fewer options in cancelling. This may alter if the political pressure for a 'lockdown' of Australian cities intensifies.

Should bookings continue to plummet the major airlines must surely eventually have to sack more staff, unless they want to place them on leave without pay. In the latter situation, some may decide, depending on age and financial situation, to retire while others may try to find employment or self-employment in other sectors.

VAd is no better on the MEL - SYD - MEL route, and in percentage terms given its lower number of scheduled flights may have an even higher rate of cancellations. One can't calculate that yet, as the dynamic nature of 21st century domestic airline schedules means a lot more may pop onto screens as the day progresses.

 

[jb747]

AFFer TheInsider in the last few months claimed that flights are not cancelled due to 'low bookings.' I didn't believe that then, and certainly don't now with COVID-19 resulting in mass cancellations internationally and now domestically.

The fact that you don’t believe something, does not make it untrue.

Nevertheless, this is not a normal period, and I do not expect airlines to be flying empty aircraft around just for slot requirements.

Should bookings continue to plummet the major airlines must surely eventually have to sack more staff, unless they want to place them on leave without pay. In the latter situation, some may decide, depending on age and financial situation, to retire while others may try to find employment or self-employment in other sectors.

You sound rather gleeful about the fact that people may (will) lose their jobs.

I expect that the very high percentage of casual staff are already feeling the pinch. Beyond that, they’ll burn all leave. That will get them a month or so. I don’t know what Australian law says about sending people on leave without pay. I expect that that isn’t actually an option companies can just chose, though they may offer it.

I have a couple of friends who are probably going to find themselves out of flying without getting to do their last flights. That’s just a bit of bad luck in that their 65th birthdays are going to occur during this period. Beyond that though, I’m sure the company would be quite happy if people choose to retire.

 

[Melburnian1]

..You sound rather gleeful about the fact that people may (will) lose their jobs.

I expect that the very high percentage of casual staff are already feeling the pinch. Beyond that, they’ll burn all leave. That will get them a month or so. I don’t know what Australian law says about sending people on leave without pay. I expect that that isn’t actually an option companies can just chose, though they may offer it.

I have a couple of friends who are probably going to find themselves out of flying without getting to do their last flights. That’s just a bit of bad luck in that their 65th birthdays are going to occur during this period. Beyond that though, I’m sure the company would be quite happy if people choose to retire.

No, not being 'gleeful', just stating facts.

Public companies are not altruists. They are run for investors, including very demanding superannuation funds and global fund investors. Some of the latter can be very demanding, and don't hold back on advice to Boards and CEOs at times.

I don't perceive QF will fold - it is relatively well off in cash and other reserves - but like many, not optimistic about VA.

The QF CEO has previously said that placing some on annual leave would enable his company to get through for six months or so. But that was before these latest developments. Isn't it the case though that in larger companies (not restricted to airlines), many employees are allowed to build up substantial periods of annual leave as managers don't enforce annual taking of 20 days? There was a campaign run by tourism authorities to try to convince Australians not to do this and instead to holiday. And there's the allied issue of sometimes it just not being possible for staff to go on holidays: the management wants them remaining on board.

A senior healthcare person I know suggests that this virus will be at its highest around the end of June 2020, but they didn't give a date as to when it will no longer be of as great concern.

Perhaps when 'it' finishes, QF may have to rehire staff. Can't see that being the case for its competitor.

 

[Melburnian1]

In more on Monday 16 March, QF818, midafternoon's 1530 hours scheduled MEL up to CBR is cancelled.

QF450 and QF462 north from MEL to SYD, the 1630 and 1900 hours are other newly advised flights to have been given the boot. This is further evidence of passengers being 'consolidated' to reduce empty running, a rational response to fewer bookings. Some while back the cost of operating a B738/A320 from MEL to SYD was put at around A$10000 on way: fuel costs at present should be fairly low, but as with most sectors of the economy wages/salaries and airport on-costs will have risen since that back-of-the-envelope calculation was made. The A$ precipitous drop isn't helpful to most transport operators.

QF447 and QF536 share a 1600 slot from SYD in pushback, with departures respectively normally to MEL and BNE. However today they also share being cancelled, two more that weren't the case at 0800 this morning (at least not publicly.)

QF449 is the 1630 hours SYD - MEL, but it's also to be inoperative.

 

[Melburnian1]

Also on 16 March 2020, QF23 departed SYD 20 minutes behind time at 1050 hours but BKK arrival should be 1640, half an hour late. Hopefully this won't delay the returning QF24 redeye.

QF7 pushed back in SYD 36 minutes behind its timetable, at 1416 hours in the afternoon. Same day DFW arrival should be 1335, 40 minutes tardy.

While 'the 9' has yet IIRC to record an occasion when between PER and LHR it's had to divert, today (operated by B789 VH-ZNI) it pushed back in MEL 47 minutes behind at 1737, with likely PER arrival becoming 1843 hours, 53 minutes tardy. A changed departure time for PER and arrival on Tuesday morning into LHR has yet to be publicly advised. The B789 had arrived in MEL this morning at 0739 hours, 54 minutes late, so no obvious reason for the afternoon delay.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF472 and QF406, respectively the 0615 and 0645 hours MEL-SYD on a gloomy mood due to coronavuirus St Patrick's Day (17 March 2020) were cancelled. The 0730 hours MEL - SYD also got the gong: QF412. The 0830 hours, QF416 also did not operate, while nor did QF418, the 0900 hours.

QF424, the 1030 hours MEL - SYD is also to be given the flick. The 1200 'high noon' on the same route, QF430, is also cancelled.

Later in the day, QF446, the 1600 hours MEL up to SYD is another COVID-19 'victim' as is QF448, the 1645 hours. QF460, the 1830 hours has also been notified as given the boot.

So were QF604 and QF608, the scheduled 0710 and 0810 hours MEL up to BNE. Much later today, QF632, the 1810 hours also will not be a feature today.

It's interesting that ex MEL, so far there don't appear to be any cancellations to ADL, HBA or PER. Maybe this is a function of lower frequency (and in the case of PER, some usage of different aircraft types at times) that make it harder to cancel flights if an airline wants to still provide some frequency and not simply cancel every flight. No cancellations also seems true for secondary routes such as MEL to LST. I haven't looked to see if where possible, smaller aircraft such as Q400s are being used on these less busy routes due to lower passenger numbers.

Given Tuesday is only as busy as Monday when the latter has been a public holiday and so there's fewer flights scheduled on most Tuesdays, this is an unprecedented number of cancellations on the two most popular routes ex MEL (SYD and BNE) that one can recall (save for JQd strikes, a different kettle of fish.)

As was the case yesterday, there may be a few more flights cancelled during the day, especially for the afternoon peak, as operations staff aided by software determine how to operate at least cost for the airline.

Today's cancellation rates are however nothing like the QF Group's just announced 90 per cent cuts to international frequencies and 60 per cent to domestic to be phased in from the end of March 2020, and no doubt discussed in other AFF threads.

 

[Melburnian1]

Continuing with Tuesday 17 March 2020, QF11 (scheduled 1010 hours morning SYD - LAX) departed at 1143 with flagged at gate arrival 0715 hours, 75 minutes late. The crosscountry B789 QF11 is predicted to depart LAX at 1045 (145 late), arriving JFK at 1835 hours, 125 minutes tardy.

Departure time for the QF12 ex JFK on Tuesday early in the evening has yet to appear, but at a guess will be around the 1945 hours mark if all goes well, meaning arrival in LAX at least 45 late and probable delays to onward-bound for some Oz east coast flights.

UPDATE: The Tuesday QF12 is predicted to push back in JFK at 2000 hours, arriving LAX at 2255, 110 minutes late.