Qantas A380 refurbishment news and updates.

[MEL_Traveller]

The main flag is that March was originally mooted for the refurbishment to start. Given it’s now February, you’d have expected the contracts to have been signed and in place already.

While you may personally see a choice of two places as being a positive, I see it, given this late stage, as a potential negative because of the uncertainty.

If one company has been selected they can start allocating staff to do the work. If neither company has a firm commitment, how can they start to allocate resources? To guarantee resources they’d need to be turning away other business... which they’re unlikely to do until they have a firm commitment.

All the logistics are much easier to tie down once you have a single preferred supplier. It is precisely the ‘obvious variables’ you mention that are the devil in the detail when it comes to project management.

As for the commentary by those of us on the sidelines... it’s been over 6 years for the a330 refurbishment scheme... that still isn’t finished. The A330 suites are already second generation compared to the offerings by China Eastern and other airlines with closing doors. The original choice of seat for the a380 turned out to be a poor one, with a noticeable droop on the seats for many years. So clearly just because they are an airline managing airline projects doesn’t mean they always get it right.

 

[DavidFlynn]

The main flag is that March was originally mooted for the refurbishment to start.

Not quite correct. It was originally announced for second quarter ["Work on the first A380 is expected to begin in the second quarter of calendar year 2019", see Qantas announces major cabin upgrade for A380 fleet]. March was flagged later, methinks by Alan Joyce at a QF financials presser in an aside or as part of a Q&A.

So clearly just because they are an airline managing airline projects doesn’t mean they always get it right.

I'd agree, however neither of us is arguing that – my point remains that on any given day, Qantas is still going to have a much better idea of what it's doing than most anybody else.

 

[moa999]

I'll admit this does strike me as tight – in the shed July, in the air August

Well to finish by end 2020 it's 12 in 18 months, or a bit less if the normal pattern of no A380 maintenance over the summer holidays is followed - so 5-6 weeks each assuming only one location/aircraft at a time.

The A330 suites are already second generation compared to the offerings by China Eastern and other airlines with closing doors.

The original choice of seat for the a380 turned out to be a poor one, with a noticeable droop.

I think the door is just a choice - I don't see as making it better . If anything it takes away a bit of width from what's already a fairly small space - both MU and DL are using the same Vantage XL base seat as QF.

Agree the droop should have been predictable to the design team and could have been fixed by a shelf or floor support that the seat slid into - also very space inefficient compared to the latest designs

 

[woodborer]

As for the commentary by those of us on the sidelines... it’s been over 6 years for the a330 refurbishment scheme... that still isn’t finished.

The original scope was finished - it's just they kept some aircraft they weren't going to.

 

[moa999]

The original scope was finished - it's just they kept some aircraft they weren't going to.

Albeit it's taken them an awful long time to refurb EBG and EBL once they agreed the lease extension

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Not quite correct. It was originally announced for second quarter ["Work on the first A380 is expected to begin in the second quarter of calendar year 2019", see Qantas announces major cabin upgrade for A380 fleet]. March was flagged later, methinks by Alan Joyce at a QF financials presser in an aside or as part of a Q&A.

Ausbt had an article that stated the refurbishment has moved from March to July. That’s where the March date came from.

This feels more ‘advertisement’ than critical analysis.

QF originally announced this in August 2017. 18 months on no contracts signed with a preferred supplier, and ‘still working on the right relationships with suppliers’.

We’ll wait and see with the end 2020 date. It wouldn’t be so bad if QF gave everyone $500 in cash at the check in counter if they didn’t have the new product (as BA did with their new first).

 

[DavidFlynn]

Ausbt had an article that stated the refurbishment has moved from March to July. That’s where the March date came from.

I'm pointing out that your comment "The main flag is that March was originally mooted for the refurbishment to start" was in error because the original refurb start was 'Q2' as per the linked QF press release. Maybe AJ (or whomever) spoke too soon when March was mentioned.

This feels more ‘advertisement’ than critical analysis.

It's not intended as 'critical analysis' because analysis is not our thing – we tend to do straight-bat reporting for the passenger, not the industry or the aviation enthusiast community – in this case that meant reporting the new refurb start date, when the first refurb'd A380 would fly, the impact of the delayed start on completion (claimed as no impact) and also get an answer to the much-asked question of premium economy, revealing that Y+ pitch will be same as on the 787. That's what we do, not deep critical analysis pieces - you can find those on assorted blogs, at Australian Aviation, at Airliners.net etc. But we tend to be the ones who break the news, and I'm happy with that.

We’ll wait and see with the end 2020 date. It wouldn’t be so bad if QF gave everyone $500 in cash at the check in counter if they didn’t have the new product (as BA did with their new first).

Oh, I'd be so down with that. Hell, I'd be happy to see that if you booked a transcon A330 with Business Suites and got a swapped to a 737!

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I’m sure any audience appreciates analysis on stated claims... not least in this case whether or not they should be spending the big bucks and actually get the product they think they are buying.

Without any disclaimer that the purported claims haven’t been analysed for accuracy, I would think most ‘straight off the bat’ passengers would assume there has been some sort of sense checking rather than just taking the PR department’s word?

 

[DavidFlynn]

I’m sure any audience appreciates analysis on stated claims...

I'd suggest many people actually don't hunger for 'analysis', they just want the core info – the 'need to know' and sometimes the 'nice to know' – and if they wish to go beyond that, to seek further information which could be 'analysis' or opinion, they can hunt it down. AusBT isn't an aviation site, we're not an industry site and we're not Choice. We have our niche in news and reviews and strategies for the business traveller, for the larger slice of the mainstream audience, and I believe we deliver on that. If somebody wants to start a Qantas Analysis blog "where we run a ruler over the Red Roo", they're welcome to add their voice and content to the pool, and all the better.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Sure. And the nice to know might be ‘Qantas says all A380s will be refurbished by 2020’.... but ‘this is an ambitious timetable, check before you go spending the big bucks if you’re hoping for a new cabin’.

How many of your readers still express disappointment at getting one of the non-refurbished a330s? Even a tiny bit of analysis may have helped some of them them prepare, and avoid disappointment.

 

[DavidFlynn]

I appreciate the thought you're putting into this, but I think you are over-thinking 'analysis' here.

 

[Pushka]

To be honest I’m not sure the average punter even knows the details of the refurb. They need to travel, they book, pay and fly.

I’m pleased the F lounge will be opened when we fly through, mainly because the current lounge from our experience is something to avoid.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

To be honest I’m not sure the average punter even knows the details of the refurb. They need to travel, they book, pay and fly.

That may be the case. But those who do read QF press releases, or sites where press releases are shared without a disclaimer, may end up spending money believing they will get a refurbished prouduct. when it might not be ready yet. Given many QF business fares come with a refund penalty of $600, and there could have been specials on other carriers in the meantime which an intending passenger passed up, this can be the cause of some angst.

While this may not be so much of an issue with the A380 (the beds are supposed to be flat anyway) - it certainly was an issue with the A330s.

 

[justinbrett]

I can’t see QF flying the A380 once project sunrise is delivered. Those aircraft on the long and/or trunk routes (SYD/MEL-LAX, SYD-JFK/LHR), supplemented by 787-9s on the botique routes (SYD/MEL-DFW/SFO, BNE-???) etc

I guess they have a few years to wait yet so QF has no choice but to refurbish.

 

[cove]

At an AGM a couple of years ago I wrote in a question on how Qantas has valued its 12 A380 planes. The chairman ignored the question as the board trousered a bonus based on no A380 write down.

 

[rock86]

At an AGM a couple of years ago I wrote in a question on how Qantas has valued its 12 A380 planes. The chairman ignored the question as the board trousered a bonus based on no A380 write down.

Well considering it's evident in the report how their aircraft is valued, its understandable the chairman didn't issue an answer to the submitted question.

 

[DavidFlynn]

I can’t see QF flying the A380 once project sunrise is delivered. Those aircraft on the long and/or trunk routes (SYD/MEL-LAX, SYD-JFK/LHR), supplemented by 787-9s on the botique routes (SYD/MEL-DFW/SFO, BNE-???) etc. I guess they have a few years to wait yet so QF has no choice but to refurbish.

I'm not an aviation analyst or expert by any stretch but I'd expect Qantas to sweat the superjumbos as long as it can. But Sunrise + Dreamliners and then potentially 797s would seem to be a solid mix.

Apropos of the A380 and Sunrise contenders (although a bnit late in the Sunrise game now), interesting to note industry speculation (Leeham News) that Airbus could use the A380 axing to gear up for a super-stretched A350, the A350-2000.

A 400+ passenger “A350-2000” would have encroached too closely on the A380’s 500+ passengers. Officials feared the A350-2000 would hurt the sales prospects of the A380. With the A380’s last delivery now planned for 20xx, this becomes a moot point. The prospect of a new, Rolls-Royce Ultra Fan engine for the A350 around 2025 will give the -2000 significantly superior economics to the 777-9 and a longer range, a preliminary analysis by LNA shows.

 

[woodborer]

Qantas have a whole bunch of aircraft (737s and A330s) that are in their late teens, and approaching 20. They have nothing on order to replace them at the moment, and that is going to become a problem.

What happens to the A380s at the moment, seems to be the least of their problems from a fleet perspective.

 

[mviy]

I can’t see QF flying the A380 once project sunrise is delivered. Those aircraft on the long and/or trunk routes (SYD/MEL-LAX, SYD-JFK/LHR), supplemented by 787-9s on the botique routes (SYD/MEL-DFW/SFO, BNE-???) etc

I guess they have a few years to wait yet so QF has no choice but to refurbish.

The A380 would likely continue to be flown to SIN, HKG, LAX and DFW. They may even at least initially continue to offer an A380 service to LHR for those who don't mind the stop and don't want to pay a premium for direct non-stop.

 

[justinbrett]

I'm not an aviation analyst or expert by any stretch but I'd expect Qantas to sweat the superjumbos as long as it can. But Sunrise + Dreamliners and then potentially 797s would seem to be a solid mix.

Apropos of the A380 and Sunrise contenders (although a bnit late in the Sunrise game now), interesting to note industry speculation (Leeham News) that Airbus could use the A380 axing to gear up for a super-stretched A350, the A350-2000.

If they can get a buyer for them for a reasonable sum I don’t think they’ll hesitate to get rid of them, especially if/when the price of oil goes up. By the time sunrise is fully implemented they’ll be 20 years old, and costing a fortune in fuel.

It’s the low cost airline model - it’s cheaper to buy/lease new planes and get rid of the old ones because old planes cost too much in fuel and maintenance.

Although, in the case of the A380s, it’s not so much about the age, but it’s hard to compete (for example) on transpacific when every one of your competitors are flying efficient modern twin engine jets. While fuel is cheap now it’s not a massive problem, but if fuel were to double QF would be in trouble.