Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[blackcat20]

This is not good news -

That overseas holiday could be longer away than expected with an international travel boss speculating things won't be back to normal until 2023.

Alexandre de Juniac, chief executive of the International Air Transport Association, delivered the sobering news on ABC News Breakfast this morning.
“We have published today a new forecast about the potential recovery of the air traffic, and what we see is that things should come back to normal in 2023, which is later than our previous forecast,” Mr de Juniac said.
“That shows, you know, the importance and the severity of this crisis on air transport….We should join progressively the historical trends by the beginning of 2023.
“What we have planned is to restart the industry, first by reopening domestic markets, then regional continental markets, such as Asia-Pacific, or Europe, or North America.
“At the end of 2020, the traffic should be between 50 to 55 per cent of the same level that was in place in 2019.
“So, we would lose something like half the traffic for the 2020.”

from news.com.au 14/05/2020

The headlines all say no overseas travel until 2023, but the actual articles say no "normal" travel levels until 2023. Even with gradually reopenings, I'm sure we'll be travelling before then.

 

[p--and--t]

This person is live tweeting their HK arrival experience (it's a lengthy one)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1260784481159442434

Well that's a dampener. Wait in the airport on arrival longer than the flight + 14 days isolation.

 

[jakeseven7]

Etihad resuming Melbourne - London tomorrow. Passengers not allowed off plane in Abu Dhabi.

 

[Pushka]

This is not good news -

That overseas holiday could be longer away than expected with an international travel boss speculating things won't be back to normal until 2023.

Alexandre de Juniac, chief executive of the International Air Transport Association, delivered the sobering news on ABC News Breakfast this morning.
“We have published today a new forecast about the potential recovery of the air traffic, and what we see is that things should come back to normal in 2023, which is later than our previous forecast,” Mr de Juniac said.
“That shows, you know, the importance and the severity of this crisis on air transport….We should join progressively the historical trends by the beginning of 2023.
“What we have planned is to restart the industry, first by reopening domestic markets, then regional continental markets, such as Asia-Pacific, or Europe, or North America.
“At the end of 2020, the traffic should be between 50 to 55 per cent of the same level that was in place in 2019.
“So, we would lose something like half the traffic for the 2020.”

from news.com.au 14/05/2020

Im pretty happy if 50% comes back by the end of this year. I think the headline was a bit misleading. And we all know that tourism was pretty much wreaking many parts of the world so reduction is a good thing.

 

[jakeseven7]

Im pretty happy if 50% comes back by the end of this year. I think the headline was a bit misleading. And we all know that tourism was pretty much wreaking many parts of the world so reduction is a good thing.

Its a News Corp headline, click bait desperate to drive clicks and dollars, what can we expect....

 

[N860CR]

Department of Home Affairs Website

Home Affairs brings together Australia's federal law enforcement, national and transport security, criminal justice, emergency management, multicultural affairs, settlement services and immigration and border-related functions, working together to keep Australia safe.

covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au

Seems we’re allowing transit passengers again. The 72 hour clause for NZ/Pacific is a little ambiguous. So they can transit for 72 hour, however would need to spend that time at the airport?

 

[blackcat20]

Its a News Corp headline, click bait desperate to drive clicks and dollars, what can we expect....

Mamamia posted the same headline, they got called out and now they've updated it.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Air NZ starting up at 20% capacity but ramping up from there.

The Great Restart: Air New Zealand 'Warming up engines' as restrictions ease

The airline’s Twitter account said, “See you soon New Zealand” as the business issued guidance for passengers flying under lowered ‘Alert Level 2’ restrictions which are now in effect.

australianaviation.com.au

So the Kiwis are keen on Aussies flying there in July

It marks an extraordinarily quick turnaround in the country’s battle against COVID-19, with Australia not set to follow until July.

Just have to see if ScoMo is equally keen

 

[NM]

So the Kiwis are keen on Aussies flying there in July

I still have "valid" tickets with QF for NZ in early July. QF has cancelled flights until end of June. I do not expect to travel, but if both governments permit it without unrealistic constraints (such as mandatory self-isolation upon border crossing) then we will still go. But my expectation is that early July is not a timeframe NZ and AU governments will be able to achieve. Perhaps later in the month or August may be achievable. For me, its continue watching the progress.

 

[Pushka]

I still have "valid" tickets with QF for NZ in early July. QF has cancelled flights until end of June. I do not expect to travel, but if both governments permit it without unrealistic constraints (such as mandatory self-isolation upon border crossing) then we will still go. But my expectation is that early July is not a timeframe NZ and AU governments will be able to achieve. Perhaps later in the month or August may be achievable. For me, its continue watching the progress.

We won't even be able to get out of SA until July at the earliest. We need Vic to get their positives down apparently.

 

[Gremlin]

The quote from the IATA CEO highlights a bit of a double-edged sword for me. Thinking about what that implies, it doesn't mean that all the existing routes are back up and running but at 50% capacity.

I reckon we will see domestic capacity open up in some form locally. Probably to and fro across the ditch. Intra-Europe will probably reopen to some extent because they'll be dealing with travel between countries that are more or less equally impacted by COVID-19. If you're Norwegian, you probably aren't any more or less likely to be infected by the virus if you fly to Portugal than if you commute into the office in Oslo. And vice versa.

But Aust/NZ's success in stemming the first wave of COVID means that there are many more destinations that we need to be wary of, than those that need to be wary of accepting travellers from us. So I still can't see ~50% of the long haul international capacity to/from Aust/NZ opening up in this timeframe, even if 50% of the overall flying capacity is back in the air by year end.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

We won't even be able to get out of SA until July at the earliest. We need Vic to get their positives down apparently.

Well seek and ye shall find seems to be the CV19 motto.

Another 16,000 odd tests again yesterday in Victoria (46% of all tests in Australia yesterday) and a high testing rate is meant keep happening till the end of May at least to look for more unknown cases.

Only one case today was linked to the Cedar Meats cluster, and so that cluster now looks to be petering out. The McDonald's cluster had another two, and so that will probably bubble for another several days yet before it has its last case..

Over the last week Victoria has gone from being below average in tests/population to now having the most tests/population. It would have been better to have done more tests earlier, but you can only test with what you have. So it is good to see that tests are now a lot more available.

The extra testing is finding more cases and Vic was at about the same number of cases/population as Qld and WA, but is now rising toward the higher, though now flat, rates of ACT/SA.

WA and Qld both have lower cases per population, but also have lower tests per population and so one may wonder if their testing should be expanded. ( See motto above). WA has tested at the rate of 62% of the national average. Qld at 76%.


It would be handy though if the quarantine figures were reported separated though as six of the new cases today are returned travellers in mandatory hotel quarantine. It does tend to induce a bugga whenever one first looks at the figures.


VIC 21 new cases, 1 previous excluded (Not sure what this means!) and so now showing at 20. Take out the quarantines = 14.
I find it best to look at unknown local transmission figures late in the day as they are more accurate then (as the contact tracers have been at work contact tracing).

ie This morning unknown local transmission was sitting at 0, but checking just now it now -10 (which means the source of 10 previous daily cases has now been identified). The last two days were at 0 unknown local transmissions.

 

[Gremlin]

"1 previous excluded" means that one of the cases in Vic has been reallocated elsewhere. This happens most often with returned travellers. They fly into one Melbourne, say, go into quarantine, get tested and are found to have COVID-19, and add to Victoria's figures. Once out of quarantine and healthy, they fly to their home state.

Today Qld reported 2 cases, but only one new case. I reckon the other guy dropped out of Vic's numbers and added into Qld's numbers as per the scenario above.

EDITED TO ADD: What's really sucky is that Qld's new case today is a worker at an aged care home in Rockhampton. No other new cases reported in Rocky since 30 March. No known active cases in Rocky since 1 May. Went to work whilst sick. I feel for those with loved ones in that facility.

 

[Berlin]

QF has cancelled flights until end of June. I do not expect to travel, but if both governments permit it without unrealistic constraints (such as mandatory self-isolation upon border crossing) then we will still go.

It’s my birthday on July 17th and quite a round one too this year- the last place I want to spend it is in cold and rainy New Zealand winter. Brissy or Cairns ideally but Sydney will do as well- please please please. With my luck, they’ll pick 1st August as a bubble start date...

 

[Pushka]

It’s my birthday on July 17th and quite a round one too this year- the last place I want to spend it is in cold and rainy New Zealand winter. Brissy or Cairns ideally but Sydney will do as well- please please please. With my luck, they’ll pick 1st August as a bubble start date...

Our restrictions in SA for restaurants are lifted five days after my birthday and wedding anniversary. Not going to bother this year. I'm going to sulk instead. We haven't had any true positive active cases for almost four weeks. (The only positive one was a UK returnee from 4 weeks prior who was no longer infectious. Not even sure why he bothered as he wasn't even ill). The natives are getting restless.

 

[p--and--t]

I'm going to sulk instead.

 

[Melburnian1]

In 39 of 47 prefectures, Japan is lifting its 'state of emergency.'

However it's staying in Toyko, Osaka, Chiba, Kyoto and a small number of others.

Do easings like this mean that Oz - Japan air travel may be possible a lot earlier than the doomsday scenario of '2023' (non route-specif) painted by IATA?

 

[p--and--t]

In 39 of 47 prefectures, Japan is lifting its 'state of emergency.'

However it's staying in Toyko, Osaka, Chiba, Kyoto and a small number of others.

Do easings like this mean that Oz - Japan air travel may be possible a lot earlier than the doomsday scenario of '2023' (non route-specif) painted by IATA?

If i read the reports of IATA correctly, they said "not returning to pre-covid volumes until 2023". I didn't read into the reports that some reduced volumes would not be occurring well before that - probably 2021.

 

[NM]

well today Australia has recorded its biggest increase in confirmed infections (31) in nearly a month (19th April was 42 new cases). Hopefully this is just a reporting anomaly and not going to spook our country's/state's leaders into battening the hatches again.

 

[CityRail]

In 39 of 47 prefectures, Japan is lifting its 'state of emergency.'

However it's staying in Toyko, Osaka, Chiba, Kyoto and a small number of others.

Do easings like this mean that Oz - Japan air travel may be possible a lot earlier than the doomsday scenario of '2023' (non route-specif) painted by IATA?

I think the report suggests that due to the economic impact of the Coronavirus, as well as travel restrictions, the level of traffic in 2019 will not be fully recovered until 2023.

I am sure that traffic between Australia and Japan will resume before 2023, or even before 2021. However, it is the lower level of demand that the article is concerned about towards the medium-long term.

Post automatically merged: May 15, 2020

well today Australia has recorded its biggest increase in confirmed infections (31) in nearly a month (19th April was 42 new cases). Hopefully this is just a reporting anomaly and not going to spook our country's/state's leaders into battening the hatches again.

Majority of cases comes from Victoria, and NSW, and to date they still have high testing numbers as well.

So that means that we should be vigilant and I think if we can keep the number of cases at this level for some time, then travel restrictions will eventually ease. Remember we will need to live with the virus, not stay under the dunna forever to avoid it.