Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

Had a close friend do this a few weeks ago (before the current drama). Into AKL and onto an SQ flight within 2 hours. Kiwi immigration staff didn’t even bat an eyelid when he said he was connecting to Singapore, so I’m assuming it’s becoming very commonplace

Getting out seems fine but the repercussions of re-entry then maybe needing another exit strategy are the things that would cause me to wait - a bit longer. But if needs must...

 

[N860CR]

Getting out seems fine but the repercussions of re-entry then maybe needing another exit strategy are the things that would cause me to wait - a bit longer. But if needs must...

True. In his case, he was living overseas prior to COVID and only returned after having an accident and needing medical care. Several requests for authorization to leave Australia were denied. I suspect he is part of a growing crowd giving up on australia altogether.

 

[Pushka]

True. In his case, he was living overseas prior to COVID and only returned after having an accident and needing medical care. Several requests for authorization to leave Australia were denied. I suspect he is part of a growing crowd giving up on australia altogether.

And that is nonsense that he had to resort to doing this to go back to where he lived. Good on him.

 

[Batterytraveller]

Well here is the ‘plan’. Lots of ‘may include’ in there

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1410821806311702528

 

[mviy]

As I need to return to Australia after leaving on reflection I don't think I've reached the point yet where I'm willing to take the risk but the fact I even have to think about using a backdoor out is appalling. As next year progresses if we remain locked out of leaving my view may change.

 

[Pushka]

Well here is the ‘plan’. Lots of ‘may include’ in there

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1410821806311702528

So testing out home quarantine is in the current stage. That's quite a big shift then.

 

[Batterytraveller]

I'm also keeping a keen eye on when Japan may open up, another vaccination laggard. I have worked remotely very successfully from Japan, the timezones work out pretty well. I'm the only Melburnian in my company and they don't really care where I am as long as I show up to the right meetings. If I could make it to Europe and then back as far as there, I wouldn't mind hanging out there till I were allowed back into Oz.

Unfortunately they are challenging us for OECD country most likely to open up last.

 

[JB expat]

So testing out home quarantine is in the current stage. That's quite a big shift then.

yes - but given the incomings and outgoings remain significantly restricted, its not what I was hoping for. I didn't expect "hey, we are opening in a month" - but this plan, the way it is "outlined" right now, makes me think that I won't get to see my USA family until mid/late 2022 - at least not without jumping through many hoops. And I'm totally willing to home quarantine - and willing to post a "compliance bond".

 

[Pushka]

yes - but given the incomings and outgoings remain significantly restricted, its not what I was hoping for. I didn't expect "hey, we are opening in a month" - but this plan, the way it is "outlined" right now, makes me think that I won't get to see my USA family until mid/late 2022 - at least not without jumping through many hoops. And I'm totally willing to home quarantine - and willing to post a "compliance bond".

I'd expect such people to be above the cap limit but agree that it is so much harder now.

 

[mviy]

I hope the government gets sued again over the international travel restrictions and the government loses but they have rigged it so that they cannot lose.

 

[Timtammi]

Its sad that even that absolutely pathetic excuse for a "plan" gives me some hope. I have been saying for ages that the country had no exit strategy. Well now at least it shows they are thinking about one. BUT its not really a plan is it? No dates, and what is this mythical % age going to be? And what happens when inevitably we dont reach it? It just all gets chucked out? Probably, lets face it that is what has happened with every other plan to date..

 

[Pushka]

Its sad that even that absolutely pathetic excuse for a "plan" gives me some hope. I have been saying for ages that the country had no exit strategy. Well now at least it shows they are thinking about one. BUT its not really a plan is it? No dates, and what is this mythical % age going to be? And what happens when inevitably we dont reach it? It just all gets chucked out? Probably, lets face it that is what has happened with every other plan to date..

It's interesting that 6 months ago UK had a plan, with dates, and milestones. It was a tough plan of 6 more months restrictions after 9 months of them. And a Brit winter. But the people went along with it, got the vax, They could check their progress. Yes, the date had to shift but the message was strong and simple. Get vaccinated and we will get out of this. Now, they are within 3 weeks of being allowed to have a Covid normal life, travel, etc. That is a plan.

 

[Mtchrs]

The PM comes out with more announcements with no set dates, but at least home quarantine is on the agenda which provides some hope to us disgruntled AFF’s.
I’ve given up hope in going to Japan in Dec as I don’t see them opening up until 2022. I also don’t see JL resuming MEL flights until then.
On a more positive note I’ll be fully vax next week

 

[dajop]

Well here is the ‘plan’. Lots of ‘may include’ in there

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1410821806311702528

I noticed the plan for bubbles if Phase C, so at least another 12 months away. Why do they keep on talking about these things. They might as well come out now and say we're never going to have a bubble with anyone other than NZ. And maybe WA

 

[Timtammi]

It's interesting that 6 months ago UK had a plan, with dates, and milestones. It was a tough plan of 6 more months restrictions after 9 months of them. And a Brit winter. But the people went along with it, got the vax, They could check their progress. Yes, the date had to shift but the message was strong and simple. Get vaccinated and we will get out of this. Now, they are within 3 weeks of being allowed to have a Covid normal life, travel, etc. That is a plan.

Agreed. I think people respond so much better when there is a clear framework and goal to work towards. Right now we are "planning to have a plan and we are not exactly sure what the trigger points of the plan should be, let us pontificate some more and naval gaze and we will come back to you with a number".

 

[Pushka]

The PM comes out with more announcements with no set dates, but at least home quarantine is on the agenda which provides some hope to us disgruntled AFF’s.
I’ve given up hope in going to Japan in Dec as I don’t see them opening up until 2022. I also don’t see JL resuming MEL flights until then.
On a more positive note I’ll be fully vax next week

Being vaccinated is the only thing we kind of have under our own control.

 

[mviy]

I noticed the plan for bubbles if Phase C, so at least another 12 months away. Why do they keep on talking about these things. They might as well come out now and say we're never going to have a bubble with anyone other than NZ. And maybe WA

I had been clinging to some hope we’d have a bubble with the UK by Christmas or soon after. After all if it’s safe for the PM to visit and for crowds at Wimbledon it should be safe for vaccinated Aussies to visit Aussie family in the UK.

We’ll just have to hope that as more of the public gets vaccinated the mood will change to have impatience to open up.

 

[JB expat]

And this speculation which seems like a logical reaction from airlines. Australia news LIVE: NSW COVID-19 cases and exposure sites grow; Morrison reveals four-phase reopening scheme

Foreign airlines spooked by travel crackdown​

By Supratim Adhikari​

There are warnings that Australia’s decision to half the already limited number of people allowed into the country on commercial flights will prompt foreign airlines to stop flying here altogether.
The Board of Airline Representatives of Australia (BARA) - which represents major international carriers that fly here - said that would make it even more difficult for Australians stuck overseas to get home.

The reduction of international arrivals has airlines spooked.
“Despite all the effort they’ve put in, it gets to a point where the only rational response is to suspend operations to Australia, perhaps for a very long period of time,” BARA executive director Barry Abrams said.
“There’ll be a reduction in the level of connectivity available to Australians overseas to get home.”
Daily arrival limits mean that the major airlines still flying to Australia - such as Singapore Airlines, Emirates and Etihad - are already limited to around 35 passengers.

 

[mviy]

If that happens that could spark another legal challenge which would stand a slightly better chance of succeeding. Repatriation flights could be filled with deportations making it impossible even for those willing to book and pay for business class to get home.

 

[burmans]

Well here is the ‘plan’. Lots of ‘may include’ in there

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1410821806311702528

Well let’s now be too harsh, they have only had a year to come up with this ‘plan’. That’s pretty fast for this government when you consider the glacial progress on a number of other issues.