Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

Apart from the complete lack of understanding of medical research, logistics, political maneuvering, airline economics, domestic coordination issues, international coordination issues, and other geopolitical realities, you could be right.

Yeah, nah.

That's the thing. QF has laid off staff. They have sent their planes away. Their supply chain is probably in hibernation.

Other airlines are still flying and have maintained the infrastructure. They're basically ready to go.

The vaccine will be manufactured here in Australia. We roll out the flu vaccine pretty quickly each year - in a couple months. not sure why the covid vaccine would take any longer?

 

[trevella]

The vaccine will be manufactured here in Australia. We roll out the flu vaccine pretty quickly each year - in a couple months. not sure why the covid vaccine would take any longer?

*The* vaccine?

I rest my case.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

*The* vaccine?

I rest my case.

'The' vaccine the Australian government thinks will be ready early next year, yes (Oxford). It may not be effective, but i understand there are others the government is also looking at.

 

[p--and--t]

There was an article recently on CNBC where a spokesperson from Moderna (which has received from the US gov USD2.5B to assist development) was quoted as saying they hoped they would find a vaccine that was 50% effective. They are hopeful if they don't crash and burn to have something to distribute around April next year.

Fauci has been quoted as saying he is hoping for someone to come up with a 75% effective vaccine to quench the pandemic.

Will be interesting to see which of the multitude of initiatives make it to the approval stage and the levels of effectiveness claimed.

My uneducated presumption is that the lower the effectiveness rate, the longer it will take to snuff out the pandemic (if that is even achievable)

My expectation is that, unlike SARS & MERS which were stopped in their tracks, most countries are going to have to "live" with this virus at various levels of impact for decades unless something comes along with the effectiveness Fauci seeks or better and humans in general adopt more hygienic living skills. We have been working on Flu vaccines for many years and still only have one with an effectiveness of 40-60% and some 650.000 dying each year regardless; and the flu is not as infectious or lethal as covid.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

.... with an effectiveness of 40-60% and some 650.000 dying each year regardless; and the flu is not as infectious or lethal as covid.

but let's flip that... how many millions of lives saved by the flu vaccine? (even with a 40-60% effective rate)

 

[p--and--t]

but let's flip that... how many millions of lives saved by the flu vaccine? (even with a 40-60% effective rate)

Totally agree we are very much better off with a flu vaccine than not. But covid is more infectious and more lethal. If we return to old "normal" behaviour and old "normal" travel and we are fortunate enough that at least one of the trials is fruitful with a vaccine of 40% effectiveness; I am guesstimating we will still be looking at several millions of deaths per year across the world.

The non-vaccine actions and changed behaviours by humans will be just as important if not more important than the vaccine. Things can't return to the old "normal".

There is no vaccine, yet life in Taiwan has returned to something akin to a new normal and the economy thriving. A key ingredient is the actions of the populace - hygiene, mask wearing et al.

 

[N860CR]

So I’m reading that the Australian cricket team has apparently chartered a La Compagnie flight to take them from Perth to Europe to play batt and ball?

Meanwhile people like myself are staring down the end of our careers in Australia, have been forbidden to leave the country (I’ve been putting off a final interview in Taiwan for months) and have lost a lot of control in a shared business overseas as I can’t even visit it, and have no avenue to address this!?

It’s starting to move beyond the point of insane. The only saving grace is my in-laws from Queensland can’t visit.

 

[jase05]

Meanwhile people like myself are staring down the end of our careers in Australia, have been forbidden to leave the country (I’ve been putting off a final interview in Taiwan for months) and have lost a lot of control in a shared business overseas as I can’t even visit it, and have no avenue to address this!?

Can you not apply for a permit?
We have had several people from our business head OS and I recall some folk on this site saying that had permits to leave the country also.
World class Sports people will always get permits, there are golfers, tennis players etc that are already travelling around the world

 

[luxury-lizard]

Hey team - let's be honest it's only HOPE that's keeping this thread going. Of course no one can predict when it will be possible and safe to travel internationally again - but if enough people (experts or otherwise) say mid-2021 then I'm going to believe it.

 

[jakeseven7]

Can you not apply for a permit?
We have had several people from our business head OS and I recall some folk on this site saying that had permits to leave the country also.
World class Sports people will always get permits, there are golfers, tennis players etc that are already travelling around the world

So we have sent a few people overseas from my company and let me tell you the permitting ‘system’ (very kind word) is a complete and utter mess.

It worked ok the first time in that we were able to get a few people out - mind you we only found days before they had to leave. Getting them back commercially became a real issue though for reasons well publicised here and in the press.

The second time it all fell apart. Stonewalled, then some rejected DAYS out even though rationale was probably more critical than the first lot. We had to fight tooth and nail to speak to someone with a braincell to actually think and assist but it happened too slowly and we missed the window (by the way it’s so slow you have to book very expensive airfares and fingers crossed).

It is all going to break apart soon you watch. Don’t get me wrong I’m not opposed to international border control, quarantine that user pays etc they just need to design a system that actually functions to allow it.

Domestic will break before international I’m sure of course. I can’t believe we are filing paperwork to move people around our country between some states right now, ridiculous.

 

[jakeseven7]

Exclusive: Federal push to lift cap on arrivals as thousands of Australians stranded

The Morrison government is pushing state governments to lift caps on international arrivals and expand the capacity of the hotel quarantine system to help repatriate thousands of Australians stranded overseas.

Federal cabinet ministers are grappling with how to best help 18,000 stranded Australians, including those who have reported having their economy class tickets cancelled as airlines give preference to business class passengers.

A senior government source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the Commonwealth wanted a return to previous arrangements, where thousands of returned travellers entered Australia each day, as soon as was safe.

Tourism Accommodation Australia chief executive Michael Johnson said the sector was "happy, ready and willing to assist" as there was "plenty of hotel capacity" to cater for returned travellers, with most providers operating at low occupancy during the pandemic.

Senior ministers are due to meet and discuss the issue this week.

Federal push to lift cap on arrivals as thousands of Australians stranded

The federal government wants to lift caps on international arrivals and expand the hotel quarantine system to help repatriate Australians stranded overseas.

www.smh.com.au

 

[RAM]

Exclusive: Federal push to lift cap on arrivals as thousands of Australians stranded

The Morrison government is pushing state governments to lift caps on international arrivals and expand the capacity of the hotel quarantine system to help repatriate thousands of Australians stranded overseas.

Federal cabinet ministers are grappling with how to best help 18,000 stranded Australians, including those who have reported having their economy class tickets cancelled as airlines give preference to business class passengers.

A senior government source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the Commonwealth wanted a return to previous arrangements, where thousands of returned travellers entered Australia each day, as soon as was safe.

Tourism Accommodation Australia chief executive Michael Johnson said the sector was "happy, ready and willing to assist" as there was "plenty of hotel capacity" to cater for returned travellers, with most providers operating at low occupancy during the pandemic.

Senior ministers are due to meet and discuss the issue this week.

Federal push to lift cap on arrivals as thousands of Australians stranded

The federal government wants to lift caps on international arrivals and expand the hotel quarantine system to help repatriate Australians stranded overseas.

www.smh.com.au

The sum of all weekly arrivals allowed under the cap would clear the entire registered 18,000+ within a month.

What is does not clear are all the non-Australians arriving under the exemption of 'close relatives' of an Australian citizen or permanent resident.

Equally interesting in the numbers released by DFAT was that roughly 70% of those registered (& wanting to come to Australia) are in:

• India
• Vietnam
• The Phillpines

Yet all the media articles only concern white anglo saxons in Europe or the US - why the disconnect?

 

[Seat0B]

So I’m reading that the Australian cricket team has apparently chartered a La Compagnie flight to take them from Perth to Europe to play batt and ball?

Meanwhile people like myself are staring down the end of our careers in Australia, have been forbidden to leave the country (I’ve been putting off a final interview in Taiwan for months) and have lost a lot of control in a shared business overseas as I can’t even visit it, and have no avenue to address this!?

It’s starting to move beyond the point of insane. The only saving grace is my in-laws from Queensland can’t visit.

My story is nowhere near as drastic, but I just want to be allowed to visit my son or for him to visit me. He's currently travelling from UAE to Greece (no quarantines required either end, just a COVID swab). His GF is visiting her parents in the UK and then on to Greece. I can't even visit my elderly and recently widow(er)ed FIL in Queensland (who I want to see). And no idea when any of those family visits might be possible under the current regime of border lockdowns. Of course, i have had no interstate work all year and no one wants to book because of constantly changing rules about borders etc. And I live in the COVID hotspot of Canberra. Feeling a bit despondent today.

 

[Seat0B]

My story is nowhere near as drastic, but I just want to be allowed to visit my son or for him to visit me. He's currently travelling from UAE to Greece (no quarantines required either end, just a COVID swab). His GF is visiting her parents in the UK and then on to Greece. I can't even visit my elderly and recently widow(er)ed FIL in Queensland (who I want to see). And no idea when any of those family visits might be possible under the current regime of border lockdowns. Of course, i have had no interstate work all year and no one wants to book because of constantly changing rules about borders etc. And I live in the COVID hotspot of Canberra. Feeling a bit despondent today.

thanks for the hugs and understanding, fellow AFFers. Feeling better today.

 

[HokitikaGold]

That's the thing. QF has laid off staff. They have sent their planes away. Their supply chain is probably in hibernation.

Other airlines are still flying and have maintained the infrastructure. They're basically ready to go.

The vaccine will be manufactured here in Australia. We roll out the flu vaccine pretty quickly each year - in a couple months. not sure why the covid vaccine would take any longer?

Not sure where I heard it, but my understanding is that notwithstanding the securement of the Oxford vaccine, we still are not actually ready (yet) to actually make it?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Not sure where I heard it, but my understanding is that notwithstanding the securement of the Oxford vaccine, we still are not actually ready (yet) to actually make it?

I think that;s right.

 

[DC3]

Not sure where I heard it, but my understanding is that notwithstanding the securement of the Oxford vaccine, we still are not actually ready (yet) to actually make it?

That’s my understanding as well. There are differences in the process and CSL needs a bigger investment in equipment/facilities to produce it as well as coping with the number of units to be produced.

 

[drron]

Well this is going to throw a huge spanner in the works as far as travel goes.

Researchers announce 'world's first' confirmed case of coronavirus reinfection

Researchers analysed the genome sequence to confirm that the 33-year-old IT worker had been infected by two different strains of coronavirus.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

So an IT worker from hong kong was infected in the first wave in April.re infected in August and the genomics confirm different strains.
So infection doesn't prevent reinfection with a different strain and also must throw doubt as to how effective a vaccine may be.

 

[I love to travel]

Well this is going to throw a huge spanner in the works as far as travel goes.

Researchers announce 'world's first' confirmed case of coronavirus reinfection

Researchers analysed the genome sequence to confirm that the 33-year-old IT worker had been infected by two different strains of coronavirus.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

So an IT worker from hong kong was infected in the first wave in April.re infected in August and the genomics confirm different strains.
So infection doesn't prevent reinfection with a different strain and also must throw doubt as to how effective a vaccine may be.

Yes as a layman I thought this too, was hoping that medicos would provide a reasonable explanation. Your post makes me sigh.

 

[Pushka]

Well this is going to throw a huge spanner in the works as far as travel goes.

Researchers announce 'world's first' confirmed case of coronavirus reinfection

Researchers analysed the genome sequence to confirm that the 33-year-old IT worker had been infected by two different strains of coronavirus.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

So an IT worker from hong kong was infected in the first wave in April.re infected in August and the genomics confirm different strains.
So infection doesn't prevent reinfection with a different strain and also must throw doubt as to how effective a vaccine may be.

I am choosing to ignore this as an outlier. Otherwise, well, screwed.