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Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

DC3

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CityRail

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NZ Bubble option looking less and less likely, Melbourne aside, with the new cases in NZ and the immediate application of stage 3/2 lockdown.
And by the time NSW/Vic has brought their outbreak under control we would have monoclonal antibodies (treatment) and vaccine in place which allows the borders to reopen in December/early 2021.
 

oznflfan

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And by the time NSW/Vic has brought their outbreak under control we would have monoclonal antibodies (treatment) and vaccine in place which allows the borders to reopen in December/early 2021.
I AM PLANNING TO GO TO GERMANY AND POLAND IN JULY 2022.
I FIGURE CHANCES OF ACTUALLY BEING LET OUT OF AUSTRALIA AND INTO EU BEING 95%
I FIGURE CHANCES OF NOT DOING A QUARANTINE ON RETURN TO AUSTRALIA 80%

I WOULD LIKE TO GO TO MALAYSIA OR THAILAND IN JULY 2021
I FIGURE CHANCES OF ACTUALLY BEING LET OUT OF AUSTRALIA 50%
I FIGURE CHANCES OF NOT DOING A QUARANTINE ON RETURN TO AUSTRALIA 25%
 

CityRail

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I AM PLANNING TO GO TO GERMANY AND POLAND IN JULY 2022.
I FIGURE CHANCES OF ACTUALLY BEING LET OUT OF AUSTRALIA AND INTO EU BEING 95%
I FIGURE CHANCES OF NOT DOING A QUARANTINE ON RETURN TO AUSTRALIA 80%

I WOULD LIKE TO GO TO MALAYSIA OR THAILAND IN JULY 2021
I FIGURE CHANCES OF ACTUALLY BEING LET OUT OF AUSTRALIA 50%
I FIGURE CHANCES OF NOT DOING A QUARANTINE ON RETURN TO AUSTRALIA 25%
If you google 'vaccine', you will see there's a wide expectation that vaccine is available by the end of the year or start of next year:



Herald Sun even expecting that we will have some form of treatment available by Christmas, therefore I suspect the chance of not doing a quarantine on return to Australia in July 2021 should be 100%.

My expectations is in line with the Treasury, where we should expect from January we will allow temporary migrant to return to Australia with 14 day quarantine, but this will be eased in February and March which will allow mass international students to return in time for start of March 2021 semester.
 

Flashback

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If you google 'vaccine', you will see there's a wide expectation that vaccine is available by the end of the year or start of next year:



Herald Sun even expecting that we will have some form of treatment available by Christmas, therefore I suspect the chance of not doing a quarantine on return to Australia in July 2021 should be 100%.

My expectations is in line with the Treasury, where we should expect from January we will allow temporary migrant to return to Australia with 14 day quarantine, but this will be eased in February and March which will allow mass international students to return in time for start of March 2021 semester.
Even if (government mandated) Quarantine is gone, it's my view that there's still likely to be 14 days self-isolation in place i.e. do it in your own accommodation, rather than government 'provided'.
 

drron

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If you google 'vaccine', you will see there's a wide expectation that vaccine is available by the end of the year or start of next year:



Herald Sun even expecting that we will have some form of treatment available by Christmas, therefore I suspect the chance of not doing a quarantine on return to Australia in July 2021 should be 100%.

My expectations is in line with the Treasury, where we should expect from January we will allow temporary migrant to return to Australia with 14 day quarantine, but this will be eased in February and March which will allow mass international students to return in time for start of March 2021 semester.
Though others who are well placed in following the vaccines progress disagree.In the Lazard Healthcare study for 2020 nearly 755 dodn't expect a vaccine until the second half of 2021.

In congressional testimony and news interviews, Fauci has said an effective and safe vaccine may be available by the end of 2020 or early 2021. Yet almost three in four health care executives and investors believe an effective and safe vaccine will not be widely available until the second half of 2021 or even later.

The survey, conducted by Lazard during the last week of May and first half of June, included 184 executives and 37 investors across pharmaceuticals and biotech, medical technology and health care services — representing many of the world’s largest health care entities, as well as smaller public and private companies and prominent investment firms.
 

CityRail

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Even if (government mandated) Quarantine is gone, it's my view that there's still likely to be 14 days self-isolation in place i.e. do it in your own accommodation, rather than government 'provided'.
Then my question is, as a vaccine is available at the end of 2020 and early 2021, why we will still need to self-isolation after travelling from overseas?

Also monoclonal antibodies, as according to Fauci, is a 'safe bet' to treat Coronavirus, and we know that the results are due next month.

So if it is successful, then why are we still fearing catching the disease and have travel restrictions when there's treatment available?

I feel disappointed and scared as we have a negative sentiment here, even being realistic as the Treasury in Australia we are predicting to allow some migrants to return to Australia from early 2021. So as vaccine is being more available, borders should open swiftly to let Australians to freely escape the country.
 

dajop

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Then my question is, as a vaccine is available at the end of 2020 and early 2021, why we will still need to self-isolation after travelling from overseas?
Do the math.

Be extremely optimistic, and assume SAFE and EFFECTIVE vaccine is available by 31 January 2021, and in sufficient quantities.

There are 25 million people residing in Australia. Now assume you want to Vaccinate 75% of those - round up to 19 million. Assume the vaccine needs to be administered by a nurse. Say you dedicate 5,000 nurses to administer the vaccine, and one vaccine every 5 minutes over the course of 7 hours, 5 days a week. That's about 2 million vaccinations a week. So you can achieve 75% vaccination after 9.5 weeks. So even under these most extreme optimistic scenarios you're already in April by the time you have sufficient people vaccinated. And how long before they all generate antibodies?
 

CityRail

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Do the math.

Be extremely optimistic, and assume SAFE and EFFECTIVE vaccine is available by 31 January 2021, and in sufficient quantities.

There are 25 million people residing in Australia. Now assume you want to Vaccinate 75% of those - round up to 19 million. Assume the vaccine needs to be administered by a nurse. Say you dedicate 5,000 nurses to administer the vaccine, and one vaccine every 5 minutes over the course of 7 hours, 5 days a week. That's about 2 million vaccinations a week. So you can achieve 75% vaccination after 9.5 weeks. So even under these most extreme optimistic scenarios you're already in April by the time you have sufficient people vaccinated. And how long before they all generate antibodies?
Then the question is, do we really need to have herd immunity before things are back to normal again? I doubt, as surveys have indicated only 60% of people would like to get vaccinated and under your calculation, we will reach a point where sometime around Easter we will see more vaccines than people would like to be vaccinated.

Moreover, the question of whether we need to be vaccinated is our free will. Myself, as a Christian believes in heaven after death means I am free not to get vaccinated, and I think vaccination should be left to those who fear Coronavirus and wants to get protected. In other words, that thing call 'herd immunity' will never achieve and there's no point to aim for such before we reopen our borders. As long as we believe those who want access to a vaccine is vaccinated, then we should open the borders.

Furthermore, having nurses to vaccinate for 7 hours, 5 days a week is unfortunately not realistic. We should have enough staffing to ensure vaccinations happens most of the time during the day for 7 days a week. So the time to achieve vaccination should be a bit faster.

Possibly the only obstacle for a vaccine is the incompetence of Australian government to sign a contract to allow supply here in Australia:


Daily Telegraph reports:

Australia yet to sign a contract to get a COVID-19 vaccine
The leading Oxford COVID-19 vaccine could be on the market from November. But the US and UK are set to get their hands on it before Australia does.
This unfortunately, should be our main concern right now.
 

MEL_Traveller

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Agree. i don't need herd immunity... I just need immunity for me!! Or a treatment.

As for when Australia will let its citizens leave... I suspect there will come a time when people have had enough, and there will be a challenge to the validity of the restriction.
 

VPS

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If you google 'vaccine', you will see there's a wide expectation that vaccine is available by the end of the year or start of next year:



Herald Sun even expecting that we will have some form of treatment available by Christmas, therefore I suspect the chance of not doing a quarantine on return to Australia in July 2021 should be 100%.

My expectations is in line with the Treasury, where we should expect from January we will allow temporary migrant to return to Australia with 14 day quarantine, but this will be eased in February and March which will allow mass international students to return in time for start of March 2021 semester.
You're putting a lot of trust in the Herald sun -


You really do have a bad case of confirmation bias CityRail.
Agree x 10
 

dajop

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Then the question is, do we really need to have herd immunity before things are back to normal again?
Well, if not, there's got to be a major realignment in rhetoric from our politicians, particularly state Premiers. At the moment outside NSW and Victoria, there is zero tolerance for the virus.
 

Nathant123

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Then my question is, as a vaccine is available at the end of 2020 and early 2021, why we will still need to self-isolation after travelling from overseas?
I admire your optimism but I cant see anything being available that quick. There is just no way they can properly test, manufacture and roll out a vaccine to the world that quick. I'm eager as everyone else to travel but I don't get my hopes up only to be disappointed. I planned to go to India this year and then back to South Africa and Israel. All we can do is wait. Travel is a luxury that up until recently I really took for granted.
 

RAM

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Indeed - this time may be different & a viable (safe & quick to produce) corona virus vaccine may be developed.

Or not.

In the last 5-6 weeks there has been a distinct shift in the commentary about a vaccine. The focus has become; 'What level of efficacy will we be happy with?

AKA what proportion of the time will the vaccine be successful for people? Fauci for example was saying that 80% would be a good result. So that means 1/5th of those vaccinated still get CV etc etc. Who wants to go overseas without insurance (Emirates offer does not work for Australia as Govt has to be recommending overseas travel is OK) and face a 1 in 5 chance of paying (needing) medical help.

Certainly the 1 in 5 may get an incredibly mild case and not need hospitalisation - or not.

With the slowly being built CV post-infection database showing a myriad of long term side effects that differ according to your age group, what was previously considered a low mortality risk (say) for under 30s is now becoming a much high risk of long term to permanent adverse health issues covering such things as permanent organ damage (lungs, liver, kidney etc) through to tinnitus (seemingly the latest one to the list). The degree of damage seems to range from minor (not requiring regular medication) through to severe.

As time goes by - the evidence will continue to build about the unforeseen or unexpected side effects of CV. A bit like the unforeseen (we hope) side effects of Asbestos, Thalidomide, DDT etc.

We can hope for the best but as the weeks go by - CV seems anything but determined to head down the 'prepare for the worst' path.

Perhaps AJ's "put the A380s into long term storage for up to 3 years" may be closer to the mark than any of us wish. Sure makes it complicated getting value out of any VA credits other than intra-state potentially! International - well it was fun while it existed!
 

trevella

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Fauci for example was saying that 80% would be a good result. So that means 1/5th of those vaccinated still get CV etc etc. Who wants to go overseas without insurance (Emirates offer does not work for Australia as Govt has to be recommending overseas travel is OK) and face a 1 in 5 chance of paying (needing) medical help.
You might like to think at least a little harder about your probability here...
 

RAM

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You might like to think at least a little harder about your probability here...
Well I had thought of the N C R route but then offset that with the multiple contacts possibly offsetting the decreasing permutations of positive contact - and then decided that I'd wimp out and hope for no mathematically attuned individuals to spot it.

Off to the corner to stand in shame...
 

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