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Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

VPS

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So we can have international travel without a vaccine if we can find an effective treatment for COVID-19.


If this trial is successful, packing our bags for Christmas maybe a reality.
Yeah nup
 

MEL_Traveller

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From the 7news link above, the Chief Medical Officer (Fed):

Kelly says papers published in the past few weeks show several types of vaccines appear effective at making antibodies against COVID-19.​
“I’m much more hopeful than I was even a few weeks ago,” he said.​
He said the possible vaccines appeared to make antibodies against the virus, which remain for a few months.​
“We don’t know about the long term yet. That will be something we’ll find out as time goes by,” Kelly said.​
He said some clinical trials were also looking to scale up manufacturing, with more to be known in coming weeks and months.​

Seems pretty good to me :)
 

jakeseven7

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From the 7news link above, the Chief Medical Officer (Fed):

Kelly says papers published in the past few weeks show several types of vaccines appear effective at making antibodies against COVID-19.​
“I’m much more hopeful than I was even a few weeks ago,” he said.​
He said the possible vaccines appeared to make antibodies against the virus, which remain for a few months.​
“We don’t know about the long term yet. That will be something we’ll find out as time goes by,” Kelly said.​
He said some clinical trials were also looking to scale up manufacturing, with more to be known in coming weeks and months.​

Seems pretty good to me :)
Just to be clear, everyone’s messaging is being controlled very tightly right now. It’s pretty obvious why this line is being spun out by him.

Don’t get me wrong I want a vaccine/treatment as much as anyone else but it’s also plainly clear what Kelly’s role is in this movie.
 

Gremlin

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The reduced quarantine intake was extended yesterday until the last week of October. No one is in a rush to ramp this up again. This is at around ~3,500 a week. I've heard estimates that there's something in the order of ~280,000 Aussies still living overseas, down from ~350,000 at the start of the year. In addition, there are still several thousand tourists who, for one reason or another, are yet to come home. Not all of those living overseas are wanting to come back, but you can see why there might be a backlog with those sorts of numbers.

Anecdotally, I've heard that it's now much harder to get a business exemption for outbound travel than it was a couple of months ago - even for businesses that are "essential". None of this suggests outbound leisure travel is going to be happening any time soon.
 

RAM

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The reduced quarantine intake was extended yesterday until the last week of October. No one is in a rush to ramp this up again. This is at around ~3,500 a week. I've heard estimates that there's something in the order of ~280,000 Aussies still living overseas, down from ~350,000 at the start of the year. In addition, there are still several thousand tourists who, for one reason or another, are yet to come home. Not all of those living overseas are wanting to come back, but you can see why there might be a backlog with those sorts of numbers.

Anecdotally, I've heard that it's now much harder to get a business exemption for outbound travel than it was a couple of months ago - even for businesses that are "essential". None of this suggests outbound leisure travel is going to be happening any time soon.
but the fly in the ointment that is getting zero mention is that apart from the 2 groups that are being mentioned:

  • Australian citizens
  • Australian permanent residents
There's a 3rd group who have been making up over 60% of arrivals since late April.
  • Foreign nationals who are 'close relatives' of one of the above
This covers a quite large list:
  • mothers & fathers
  • brothers & sisters
  • sons & daughters
  • partners, husbands & wives
  • & other dependents (no idea what this entails but potentially opens the gates even wider)
Three flights into Melb in early June (repatriation flights!) contained 60%+ foreign nationals with one group of 13+ people related to one Australian permanent resident. It took over 90 minutes for a border force official to track them down. The official was certain that at least this group was being run by a people smuggler as only one had the contact details for their 'son', 'brother', 'partner'.

Only one had the phone number on their phone - nobody else. No emails nor social media contacts either for any of them....

Official was over-ruled as it was 'holding up the coach transfer'.
 

Rembrandt

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I did some maths on my leave balance.
It looks like I have until late January before my annual leave becomes what work deems "excessive", at which point they'll try to force me to take it.
I refuse to use annual leave to sit at home and do nothing (that's what my 7 weeks of personal leave is for).

What do people think the chances are of any borders reopening for general travel by Feb?
You would think the interstate borders would fully reopen by early next year. It entirely depends on how things go in Victoria and NSW. Otherwise look into visiting a provincial part of your state, that's what I plan to do in a couple of months time all being well. It's still better than sitting around at home.

The WA and QLD premiers may be popular at the moment, but when Job Keeper is reduced and eventually removed they may just receive protestors at their parliament building demanding a reopening of state borders. Their smug faces may change to something else when they realise the federal government will no longer bail them out with billions. They're really riding on the back of Job Keeper and Job Seeker at the moment and when it's cut the tourism industry will really feel it.
 

Gremlin

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You would think the interstate borders would fully reopen by early next year. It entirely depends on how things go in Victoria and NSW. Otherwise look into visiting a provincial part of your state, that's what I plan to do in a couple of months time all being well. It's still better than sitting around at home.

The WA and QLD premiers may be popular at the moment, but when Job Keeper is reduced and eventually removed they may just receive protestors at their parliament building demanding a reopening of state borders. Their smug faces may change to something else when they realise the federal government will no longer bail them out with billions. They're really riding on the back of Job Keeper and Job Seeker at the moment and when it's cut the tourism industry will really feel it.
Tourism is only one industry. There are a lot of industries much better off with borders closed and looser restrictions within state than the other way round.

Right now it’s Victoria that is the economic handbrake for the nation, not Qld and WA’s closed borders. It’s Victoria that’s needing the bulk of the bailout, not Qld and WA. To put in context, the original estimated cost of Stage 3 lockdown in Melbourne alone was estimated to be TWICE the value of the entire nation’s tourism industry. It’s now Stage 4, so the cost is much, much higher still.
 

jakeseven7

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Tourism is only one industry. There are a lot of industries much better off with borders closed and looser restrictions within state than the other way round.

Right now it’s Victoria that is the economic handbrake for the nation, not Qld and WA’s closed borders. It’s Victoria that’s needing the bulk of the bailout, not Qld and WA. To put in context, the original estimated cost of Stage 3 lockdown in Melbourne alone was estimated to be TWICE the value of the entire nation’s tourism industry. It’s now Stage 4, so the cost is much, much higher still.
We need to save Victoria as a priority to save Australia there are national warehouses and manufacturing components that only come in from Melbourne (we are now stuck with delays on some critical parts).

Vic also supplies the most food to the nation and it’s nice to see that the WA premier has suddenly realised this and has backed off his vile rhetoric to move to a more supportive stance (probably when he realised where his hamburgers came from ;) )

Prior to the outbreak in Vic/Nsw the border closures were doing the most damage though by a country mile.
 

Gremlin

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Prior to the outbreak in Vic/Nsw the border closures were doing the most damage though by a country mile.
The two are not independent. The fact that there is no contagion now in WA/SA/Tas/Qld/NT is due in no small part to the border closures having been in place. There may have an economic cost in doing so, but the alternative, as is currently being demonstrated in Victoria, is a much worse.

EDIT: Absolutely agree that we, as a nation, have to prioritise limiting the economic and health damage in Victoria. We also have to do everything we can to avoid it spreading to any other state.
 

MEL_Traveller

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Otherwise look into visiting a provincial part of your state, that's what I plan to do in a couple of months time all being well. It's still better than sitting around at home.
To do that I would like to see value for money! A NZ journo was interviewed on tv last night... said the white water jet boat used to be $170, now $40. Ski passes more than half off. She said everyone was enjoying themselves and having fin.

I don't really get much enjoyment visiting Australia with sky-high pricing (aimed at international tourists) and potential 'yeah, she'll be right mate' attitude. If we can do something like NZ it would be much easier to take the risk.
 

Rembrandt

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Vic also supplies the most food to the nation and it’s nice to see that the WA premier has suddenly realised this and has backed off his vile rhetoric to move to a more supportive stance (probably when he realised where his hamburgers came from ;) )
The WA Premier has had a very arrogant and ignorant approach to the crisis in the south east. I think it's starting to tick a few people off including myself. His approach has made him very popular over there, well for the moment. I find that the SA premier is a lot more helpful and understanding in his approach. QLD and WA leaders are rather smug, other states leader I have some time for.

A couple of months back the WA premier in a news conference alluded that Perth Airport was the second largest airport hub in Australia. I almost spat my coffee out.
 
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Rembrandt

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I don't really get much enjoyment visiting Australia with sky-high pricing (aimed at international tourists) and potential 'yeah, she'll be right mate' attitude. If we can do something like NZ it would be much easier to take the risk.
And this is of benefit to me. Seems many Aussies don't like holidaying at home, so it leaves many beautiful areas untouched by hoards of tourists, which I like :D

It is expensive to holiday around Australia, but it's expensive to holiday around any wealthy first world nation. I was in Japan last year and it cost a fortune, but I loved every minute of it.
 

jakeseven7

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The WA Premier has had a very arrogant and ignorant approach to the crisis in the south east. I think it's starting to tick a few people off including myself. His approach has made him very popular over there, well for the moment. I find that the SA premier is a lot more helpful and understanding in his approach. QLD and WA leaders are rather smug, other states leaders I have some time for.
Perhaps unsurprisingly you will find the QLD and WA premiers are both up for re-election very soon which is producing an edge to this vile smug language to play to their lowest common denominator voters.

I have a sneaking suspicion if they were both fresh in term we would see more statesperson like behaviour..... well as much as those two are capable of anyway...!

Also the state premiers really aren’t made for this level of responsibility, it’s been a convergence of unique events that have given them so much power (hopefully soon removed again) and the spotlight is harsh and bright on them all, showing a lot of cracks in their foundation ;)
 

RAM

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We need to save Victoria as a priority to save Australia there are national warehouses and manufacturing components that only come in from Melbourne (we are now stuck with delays on some critical parts).

Vic also supplies the most food to the nation and it’s nice to see that the WA premier has suddenly realised this and has backed off his vile rhetoric to move to a more supportive stance (probably when he realised where his hamburgers came from ;) )

Prior to the outbreak in Vic/Nsw the border closures were doing the most damage though by a country mile.
In hindsight there are several groups - State & Federal Govts who have made multiple mistakes. Luckily the litany of NSW mistakes did not lead to more than 25 deaths (rough size of Newmarch House deaths as well as number of Ruby Princess linked deaths respectively).

The tragedy is the Melbourne hotel's got away before it was discovered.

However the border closures came about due to the Ruby Princess debacle - over three months before the Melb hotels debacle happened.

The initial mistakes, blunders, mis-steps that closed the borders tied to the original mistakes which saw CV spread Australia-wide. Just a reminder:
  1. Refusal of Fed Govt to ban travellers from Iran & Italy - led to Newmarch House outbreak from an Iranian/Australian who came back from holidays & went straight to work for 5 (? I think it was) days with only mild symptoms. Subsequent outbreak in another NSW nursing home linked to returning traveller from Italy. Then banned Iran (for ten days or so?) but not Italy.
  2. Ruby Princess (March 17th) - led to nearly 1,000 cases Australia-wide before Fed Dept of Health stopped collecting the case stats in late May. Saw CV spread to around 38 new locations Aust-wide previously with no CV. Also led to over 100+ cases & 8+ deaths in US (which not publicised by Fed Dept of Health).
  3. Less than a week later - mismanagement of returning doctors, dentists & partners from South American cruise who were not 'quarantined' properly by NSW Health/Police/ADF at Sydney airport which saw around 20 doctors/dentists PLUS their (8) partners catch flights across Australia in the intervening 2 hours until they were missed. Gladys described the incidents as 'deliberately dodging our strict Covid-19 requirements'. For some reason the number reported only counted the doctors/dentists who absconded & did not include their partners... The healthcare workers, who were attending a conference hosted by Unconventional Conventions, are among 107 Australians aboard the Roald Amundsen cruise, owned by Hurtigruten. Altogether they are 73 doctors, 20 dentists and five nurses and their partners. Any wonder why nearly all states closed their borders to NSW EXCEPT Victoria? All to do with NSW the initial border closures.
  4. Despite 'claimed' wonders of National Cabinet - still to this day there is not one national rule for what to do while awaiting test results, what to do for a workplace while awaiting test results of a colleague, what to do AFTER -ve test comes back but still may develop into +ve - to name just a few. Still around 6 major permutations Australia-wide for the 'awaiting test' alone.
  5. Special exemptions for certain vested interest groups who also happen to be significant donors to both sides of politics eg: Crown in Melbourne & Star City in NSW, or perceived voting blocks - 400 gathering for Eid Mosque service but not for any Christian Easter services when transmission was a fraction.
  6. NSW losing around 80 tests from a new hotspot area etc etc, loss discovered only after people began asking where their test results were.
  7. July 8 - mismanagement at Sydney airport with nearly full Jetstar flight's passengers arriving from Melbourne not getting checked for symptoms etc as required & walking straight out. Passengers departed using taxis, ubers, bus & trains across Sydney
Without these initial mis-steps then many of the subsequent border shutdowns (until the Melb hotels in late June) would not have happened in the first place.

For some reason though the media & commentators appear to have very short & selective memories as well as on what they report - nothing about the 60+% of arrivals since April that are neither Australian citizens nor permanent residents that under a couple of weeks ago wee being housed, fed, & medically attended gratis thanks to the uninformed Australian taxpayers in the respective State footing their two week hotel quarantine bills. That's why the NT almost immediately declared all international arrivals would have to pay their way after a one week (?) window closed. Arrivals fell over 90% intially after that and to virtually zero subsequently except for occasional charter flights from PNG.

Hopefully the public backlash will finally cause the various power-that-be to put logic before self-interest.
 

RAM

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The WA Premier has had a very arrogant and ignorant approach to the crisis in the south east. I think it's starting to tick a few people off including myself. His approach has made him very popular over there, well for the moment. I find that the SA premier is a lot more helpful and understanding in his approach. QLD and WA leaders are rather smug, other states leader I have some time for.

A couple of months back the WA premier in a news conference alluded that Perth Airport was the second largest airport hub in Australia. I almost spat my coffee out.
At that time it may well have been as wasn't Q basing all their Asia & European reapatriation flights from there?

And this is of benefit to me. Seems many Aussies don't like holidaying at home, so it leaves many beautiful areas untouched by hoards of tourists, which I like :D

It is expensive to holiday around Australia, but it's expensive to holiday around any wealthy first world nation. I was in Japan last year and it cost a fortune, but I loved every minute of it.
Japan may be expensive in parts (but much cheaper ski trip there than to Thredbo - so UNSW have their ski week in Japan now instead) but much of Europe is much cheaper including Germany & Austria, especially skiing in Austria. A family season ticket covering two adults & up to 5 children over 4 areas cost AUD$900. So a month's skiing over the Xmas school holidays, plus airfares, accomodation etc etc was significantly less than one week in the Australian school holidays in July. For example, a 1.5 brm (twin fold out couch bed & 1 twin brm) in Thredbo on the early 2010s was just over AUD 5,000. A 160 sq m just built whole floor apartment in an Austrian ski village, 4 brm, etc etc was less than that for 29 nights starting Dec 27th which is the European highest season. It's price has not increased since we first started going there btw.

So, whilst much more expensive, we're headed on a NSW road trip later this year but pre-school holidays (CV conditions allowing that is). Accom costs look to be higher than what we're paying in Austria & Germany at the start of this year :( but at least much better than going to one of the major chains in the capital cities!
 
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trooper

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OK.....that's freaky! I had to google it, but you learn something everyday!
Weird isn't it? Its not actually part of the ACT... but ACT laws do apply there. (Jervis Bay Acceptance Act 1915....lol) I spent 2 years at the Naval College at HMAS CRESWELL down there...and we were all fascinated to meet the local cop...who of course was an ACT policeman. (Whatever they were called back then) He thought he had the best posting possible.
 

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