Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

drron

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From what I've read this variant seems to have mutated far more than others. And we can't let outcome bias cloud decisions. 'Just because' previous variants haven't proved overly dangerous doesn't mean this one won't be.
And just because there are more mutations it doesn't mean it is more dangerous or infective. Mutations can have negative effects on the virus. It will take a while to see what happens out in the real world.
 

N860CR

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Until they know more about the seriousness of the variant, the demographics of the population experiencing severity and effectiveness of vaccines, a ban on flights where it's running is a good thing.

I disagree. The longer we continue with this covid-theatre, the harder it will be to reverse it.

It’s becoming more and more obvious that the world overreacted to this virus. As time goes on, we should be reacting with less panic, not more.
 

Must...Fly!

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I disagree. The longer we continue with this covid-theatre, the harder it will be to reverse it.

It’s becoming more and more obvious that the world overreacted to this virus. As time goes on, we should be reacting with less panic, not more.
I agree. The original idea was to flatten the curve and then a handful of countries (ours included) went mental and changed everyone's expectations.

This. Is. Not. Ebola.
 

Pushka

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I agree. The original idea was to flatten the curve and then a handful of countries (ours included) went mental and changed everyone's expectations.

This. Is. Not. Ebola.
Ebola is less likely to cause issues amongst the general population because of its fact fatality rate.
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I agree. The original idea was to flatten the curve and then a handful of countries (ours included) went mental and changed everyone's expectations.

This. Is. Not. Ebola.
What will happen with this virus is yet to be determined. It's just a two week pause at the moment.
 

N860CR

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Ebola is less likely to cause issues amongst the general population because of its fact fatality rate.
Post automatically merged:


What will happen with this virus is yet to be determined. It's just a two week pause at the moment.

We already know what it will be. A slightly different “variant” of the same mild virus we’ve been playing with for the last 2 years.

By WHO estimates billions of people have been “infected”. Billions have been vaccinated. Very few will die. This is life. At some point, the obsession needs to end.

I would happily bet the house on this “variant” being yet another non-even. Remember the “UK” variant? Remember the “South African” variant? This is simply media hype, so people like AP can say “Delta is coming!!!!!!”.

Maybe the saving grace this time is that she won’t be able to pronounce this?
 

Pushka

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We already know what it will be. A slightly different “variant” of the same mild virus we’ve been playing with for the last 2 years.

By WHO estimates billions of people have been “infected”. Billions have been vaccinated. Very few will die. This is life. At some point, the obsession needs to end.

I would happily bet the house on this “variant” being yet another non-even. Remember the “UK” variant? Remember the “South African” variant? This is simply media hype, so people like AP can say “Delta is coming!!!!!!”.

Maybe the saving grace this time is that she won’t be able to pronounce this?
The world reacted faster than Australia this time. If it's a fizzer and that would be a great option then I don't see the damage after all these 18 months of damage.
 

N860CR

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The world reacted faster than Australia this time. If it's a fizzer and that would be a great option then I don't see the damage after all these 18 months of damage.

That’s true. I’m certainly not throwing us under the bus. It’s a global panic. But this is hurting our recovery. 2 years the world can maybe handle. 3-4 and we’re looking at mass poverty across the developing world to an extent never seen before. And for what?
 

jase05

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We already know what it will be. A slightly different “variant” of the same mild virus we’ve been playing with for the last 2 years.

By WHO estimates billions of people have been “infected”. Billions have been vaccinated. Very few will die. This is life. At some point, the obsession needs to end.

I would happily bet the house on this “variant” being yet another non-even. Remember the “UK” variant? Remember the “South African” variant? This is simply media hype, so people like AP can say “Delta is coming!!!!!!”.

Maybe the saving grace this time is that she won’t be able to pronounce this?
And whilst we may disagree with things at the end of the day the majority of us are nobodies on a travel forum who have a desire to travel again whereas the majority of these decisions are made by folk suitably more qualified than we are at making decisions that affect everyone.
I don’t agree with many of the decisions but I put my faith in the experts even if their choices do seem absurd at times
 

N860CR

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And whilst we may disagree with things at the end of the day the majority of us are nobodies on a travel forum who have a desire to travel again whereas the majority of these decisions are made by folk suitably more qualified than we are at making decisions that affect everyone.
I don’t agree with many of the decisions but I put my faith in the experts even if their choices do seem absurd at times

I really don’t see many genuine experts having a hand in this. We’re back to covid-hysteria again which is purely about appeasing the great unwashed.

You are proving a good point though. Best people down enough and they’ll just accept it.
 

MEL_Traveller

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I really don’t see many genuine experts having a hand in this. We’re back to covid-hysteria again which is purely about appeasing the great unwashed.

You are proving a good point though. Best people down enough and they’ll just accept it.

Well... then I am part of the 'great unwashed'! :) I don't want to go back to restrictions, mask wearing outdoors and not being able to have Chrissy lunch with the elderly folks.

I'm happy to restrict entry and have quarantine for a couple weeks until they work out whether this is a threat or not. We are lucky the borders have been open for a month and those wanting to come home have had the opportunity to do so... without that added pressure there is time to assess this properly.
 

ethernet

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I am ashamed of Australia's actual medical performance relative to Singapore and Israel. Both are running their own trials. Both are probably running their own computer simulations, rather than let and depend on Pfizer going forward. Repeat for those super expensive F1? drugs. Maybe I just don't read of Australian research in a timely, headline manner. As Delta pushed all aside, - to make headway, O is probably more spreadable. As I am fully vaccinated, I don't care how unvaccinated infection enclaves/islands fare, because it is when, not if for them. I suppose this has just thrown a very big spanner into Scomo's election plans. WA will sit, and QLD could be a very awkward variable if just a few cases are found in big shopping malls. Bottom line, I am glad I have not booked or made any plans. I am well stocked on mandatory face masks, and foresee their return.
 

Melburnian1

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I really don’t see many genuine experts having a hand in this. We’re back to covid-hysteria again which is purely about appeasing the great unwashed.

You are proving a good point though. Best people down enough and they’ll just accept it.

Agree! More overblown panic soon to hit us all: (from 'SMH") - a great way for governments to keep 'control' over us:

Health chiefs push for ban on all arrivals in wake of variant

Australia has temporarily closed the door to arrivals from nine African nations, with more border closures possible amid concern from chief health medical officers.
 

drron

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I am ashamed of Australia's actual medical performance relative to Singapore and Israel. Both are running their own trials. Both are probably running their own computer simulations, rather than let and depend on Pfizer going forward. Repeat for those super expensive F1? drugs. Maybe I just don't read of Australian research in a timely, headline manner. As Delta pushed all aside, - to make headway, O is probably more spreadable. As I am fully vaccinated, I don't care how unvaccinated infection enclaves/islands fare, because it is when, not if for them. I suppose this has just thrown a very big spanner into Scomo's election plans. WA will sit, and QLD could be a very awkward variable if just a few cases are found in big shopping malls. Bottom line, I am glad I have not booked or made any plans. I am well stocked on mandatory face masks, and foresee their return.
Australia's performance has been much better than either Singapore or Israel.

From Worldometers.
Cases per million. Israel -143850
Singapore.-43936
Australia - 7978.

Deaths per million. Israel - 877
Singapore - 116
Australia - 77.

Now Israel has done a lot of work on the effectiveness of the vaccine -they used Pfizer. But that was because they did a deal with Pfizer to get priority delivery of the vaccine. The deal was they had to collect the medical details on everyone that was vaccinated and those records were to be given to Pfizer. I am glad we didn't do that. Despite that we are ahead of Israel in percentage vaccinated.
1638005278187.png
 

Melburnian1

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Goodness. NSW has reverted to being draconian.

What's the betting other states will close their borders to NSW (again)?

From 'SMH', just in:

"All overseas arrivals into Sydney told to isolate in wake of variant Australia has temporarily closed the door to arrivals from nine African nations, but NSW has gone one step further with 72-hour isolation announced for all arrivals, regardless of overseas origin..."

It might be prudent to stay in one's own state given this unwelcome news.
 

MEL_Traveller

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Goodness. NSW has reverted to being draconian.

What's the betting other states will close their borders to NSW (again)?

From 'SMH', just in:

"All overseas arrivals into Sydney told to isolate in wake of variant Australia has temporarily closed the door to arrivals from nine African nations, but NSW has gone one step further with 72-hour isolation announced for all arrivals, regardless of overseas origin..."

It might be prudent to stay in one's own state given this unwelcome news.

72 hours is not long and provides time to get tested if any symptoms... or not if they make a post-arrival test mandatory. The virus was allegedly already in Hong Kong, so perhaps prudent to recognise that with air travel, 'borders' are fairly fluid when it comes to the spread of a virus.
 

mviy

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I have already timed my return date and made plans to do things within 72 hours after returning from the UK early next year with other fully vaccinated people on the strength of rules that started earlier this month of having no quarantine at all.

If the 72 hours of home quarantine is introduced in VIC and remains into next year this is going to disrupt my travel plans even if I test negative on every test.

It may not seem like much to some of you, but these kind of changes make it very difficult to plan trips.
 
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Pushka

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That’s true. I’m certainly not throwing us under the bus. It’s a global panic. But this is hurting our recovery. 2 years the world can maybe handle. 3-4 and we’re looking at mass poverty across the developing world to an extent never seen before. And for what?
Of course. But we live in a panicked world right now. We need some really boring years to settle down. Plus we are less resilient and which is totally reinforced by the Govt spiel that they will protect us.
Post automatically merged:

I am ashamed of Australia's actual medical performance relative to Singapore and Israel. Both are running their own trials. Both are probably running their own computer simulations, rather than let and depend on Pfizer going forward. Repeat for those super expensive F1? drugs. Maybe I just don't read of Australian research in a timely, headline manner. As Delta pushed all aside, - to make headway, O is probably more spreadable. As I am fully vaccinated, I don't care how unvaccinated infection enclaves/islands fare, because it is when, not if for them. I suppose this has just thrown a very big spanner into Scomo's election plans. WA will sit, and QLD could be a very awkward variable if just a few cases are found in big shopping malls. Bottom line, I am glad I have not booked or made any plans. I am well stocked on mandatory face masks, and foresee their return.
I have so many fricken face masks and hand sanitizer.
 

MEL_Traveller

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I have already timed my return date and made plans to do things within 72 hours after returning from the UK early next year with other fully vaccinated people on the strength of rules that started earlier this month of having no quarantine at all.

If the 72 hours of home quarantine is introduced in VIC and remains into next year this is going to disrupt my travel plans even if I test negative on every test.

It may not seem like much to some of you, but these kind of changes make it very difficult to plan trips.

we’re probably up for a whole year of travel disruption and uncertainty… I’ve allowed 4 weeks between successive trips next year to allow for testing positive somewhere along the way :(
 

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