Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

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drron

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Researchers at the Sydney Universities have developed a tool to monitor home quarantine which sounds good and I would be happy to use it.
 

antycbr

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Researchers at the Sydney Universities have developed a tool to monitor home quarantine which sounds good and I would be happy to use it.
Expect that Home Quarantine will go the way of the dodo once the "optics" allow it.
 

Jousams

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Expect that Home Quarantine will go the way of the dodo once the "optics" allow it.
Agreed lol. When I saw this I thought what a massive waste of time and effort. But I guess that’s what Australian Universities are good at.
 

hb13

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Well done on tracking down an acceptable route/fare: just leaves the tricky 'last mile' including ground transport and home quarantine on return....

I too have been looking at QR (though for J seats to/from UK) and reached the same conclusion about them being uncompetitive. QR is continuing to make available only Elite fares for DOH-SYD, so that even with a Lite fare for outbound (the new unbundled P fare bucket) you are still up for $10-11K for the round trip. No thanks.

This is the case for SYD-DOH-LHR-DOH-SYD on QR for a sample of dates in all months from Dec 2021 until end of QR booking availability in Oct 2022. Looking on EF you see most fare buckets zeroed out and the seat maps show only a handful of allocated seats.

Presumably QR (among others) is still proceeding as though stringent caps on inbound loads will go on indefinitely. As Australians are making 2022 bookings now, particularly for the northern summer, QR must know they are losing business. All caused by the stand-off over inbound caps or are there other factors? A possibly hopeful sign – as flagged on another AFF thread – is a bit more Y inventory being offered in Jan.

Context for my interest is planning for several UK/EU trips from Q2 2022. I’m sitting on a QR credit voucher which must be fully expended by June 2022: if lower fare buckets in J don’t open up soon I will be taking my business elsewhere, cashing in the voucher and losing the 10% ‘bonus’ on the loan I advanced to QR last year. And yes – before anyone comments – this is rather a First World Problem compared with the situation of those seeking affordable availability for inbound travel in the more immediate future.

Hi Telemachus,

I'm in a similar situation with trying to book several UK-Aus flights (SYD/MEL) next year beginning Feb/March 2022. I don't know what the prices are as I haven't checked, but traditionally I have found really good prices to Aus from Italy (FCO/MXP) and ARN/CPH - have you tried that?

I assume like me you're based in the UK, and having a different point of departure for us somewhere in the EU will I assume be easier. One thing however may be the fact that we may need a PCR test from our departure city, which would mean an extra night or two there - so that is just something to watch out for...
 

jakeseven7

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Fiji opening to fully vaccinated Australians from Dec 1 (after wisely using our AZ we couldn’t be bothered using). No quarantine. So Dec 1 seems to ring a bell for international flights resuming…. Wonder what our return quarantine will be? Hopefully test and release, max?

——

Fiji to open to Australian tourists from December 1 after hitting 80 per cent vaccination target​


Australians will be able to visit Fiji from December after the Pacific island nation hit its target of vaccinating 80 per cent of its eligible population.

Visitors will still need to meet several COVID-19 safety requirements, including being fully vaccinated and providing a negative PCR test within 72 hours of departure, but there will be no quarantine required.

Fiji Airways will launch twice-daily flights from Sydney to Fiji on December 1, with daily flights from Melbourne and Brisbane. Jetstar will have five flights a week from Sydney to Fiji starting on December 17, with Qantas flying the same route four times a week from December 19. The airlines have indicated frequency will increase if demand is high.

 

antycbr

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Fiji opening to fully vaccinated Australians from Dec 1 (after wisely using our AZ we couldn’t be bothered using). No quarantine. So Dec 1 seems to ring a bell for international flights resuming…. Wonder what our return quarantine will be? Hopefully test and release, max?

——

Fiji to open to Australian tourists from December 1 after hitting 80 per cent vaccination target​


Australians will be able to visit Fiji from December after the Pacific island nation hit its target of vaccinating 80 per cent of its eligible population.

Visitors will still need to meet several COVID-19 safety requirements, including being fully vaccinated and providing a negative PCR test within 72 hours of departure, but there will be no quarantine required.

Fiji Airways will launch twice-daily flights from Sydney to Fiji on December 1, with daily flights from Melbourne and Brisbane. Jetstar will have five flights a week from Sydney to Fiji starting on December 17, with Qantas flying the same route four times a week from December 19. The airlines have indicated frequency will increase if demand is high.

Brisbane? Is the return going straight to Wellcamp?
 

Telemachus

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Hi Telemachus,

I'm in a similar situation with trying to book several UK-Aus flights (SYD/MEL) next year beginning Feb/March 2022. I don't know what the prices are as I haven't checked, but traditionally I have found really good prices to Aus from Italy (FCO/MXP) and ARN/CPH - have you tried that?
Thanks for the prompt about routes ex-UK via other ports in the EU – I’ll certainly look into such options. But the wildly expensive component of seats on QR, as things stand, is unrelated to the UK as point of departure or destination – it’s specifically about the sector from DOH inbound to Australia. The problem can be managed on a QR ticket by such solutions as Pushka found.

This pricing phenomenon isn’t unique to QR, of course. It ought to begin to ease very soon as international carriers operating into Australia feel able to unlock more inventory. See preceding post suggesting it's starting to happen now for Y fares on QR.
 

Tiki

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Brisbane? Is the return going straight to Wellcamp?

Hopefully this explains it, finally open the borders?

I see one problem for Fiji, you have to stay in special Covid safe accommodtion. We would be using points for the IC on the main island, but Kadavu and Taveuni only have expensive places.
 

jase05

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Has AJ got a secret stash of aircraft sitting around somewhere that we don’t know about?
Seems a awful lot of routes opening up for the amount of B787’s they have or are the A380’s coming back online earlier?
 

justinbrett

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Has AJ got a secret stash of aircraft sitting around somewhere that we don’t know about?
Seems a awful lot of routes opening up for the amount of B787’s they have or are the A380’s coming back online earlier?

I've done the sums, and the full schedule can be done easily with the 11 aircraft they have.

All thanks to blowing away preferred departure/arrival times so that aircraft aren't sitting in foreign ports for half a day. The SYD-LHR-SYD-LAX-SYD is all timed for a free flowing schedule and can do SYD-LAX and SYD-LHR return daily with 3 aircraft total. Even that has an aircraft in Sydney for almost 12 hours every 3 days. Do the same for Melbourne and you're still only up to 6 aircraft total.

Another two gets you the SYD-DFW and SYD-SFO routes back (they are 4x weekly and 3x weekly respectively)
Another two gets you SYD-JNB daily
Another one gets you SYD-SCL 4x weekly (with a fair amount of unutilised time)

I'm guessing they're hoping to get the new 787s from Boeing before they get to the JNB/SCL routes.
 

Jousams

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I've done the sums, and the full schedule can be done easily with the 11 aircraft they have.

All thanks to blowing away preferred departure/arrival times so that aircraft aren't sitting in foreign ports for half a day. The SYD-LHR-SYD-LAX-SYD is all timed for a free flowing schedule and can do SYD-LAX and SYD-LHR return daily with 3 aircraft total. Even that has an aircraft in Sydney for almost 12 hours every 3 days. Do the same for Melbourne and you're still only up to 6 aircraft total.

Another two gets you the SYD-DFW and SYD-SFO routes back (they are 4x weekly and 3x weekly respectively)
Another two gets you SYD-JNB daily
Another one gets you SYD-SCL 4x weekly (with a fair amount of unutilised time)

I'm guessing they're hoping to get the new 787s from Boeing before they get to the JNB/SCL routes.
You’ve forgotten the YVR route.
 

jase05

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I've done the sums, and the full schedule can be done easily with the 11 aircraft they have.

All thanks to blowing away preferred departure/arrival times so that aircraft aren't sitting in foreign ports for half a day. The SYD-LHR-SYD-LAX-SYD is all timed for a free flowing schedule and can do SYD-LAX and SYD-LHR return daily with 3 aircraft total. Even that has an aircraft in Sydney for almost 12 hours every 3 days. Do the same for Melbourne and you're still only up to 6 aircraft total.

Another two gets you the SYD-DFW and SYD-SFO routes back (they are 4x weekly and 3x weekly respectively)
Another two gets you SYD-JNB daily
Another one gets you SYD-SCL 4x weekly (with a fair amount of unutilised time)

I'm guessing they're hoping to get the new 787s from Boeing before they get to the JNB/SCL routes.
Isn’t there a SYD-YVR starting aswell 3 times weekly.
It might work but doesn’t allow much wiggle room for delays, mechanical faults etc
 

justinbrett

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You’ve forgotten the YVR route.

I forgot to mention it.

MEL-LAX is only 4x weekly.

The other three days they can do MEL-SYD-YVR-SYD-MEL

They are selling MEL-SYD domestic so seems they are doing something like this.

I don't have the full plan, I'm just saying you could work it and it is possible to do with the aircraft they have. I know there is a double up that SYD-YVR is on a Monday as is MEL-LAX, it would work better if SYD-YVR was moved to Tuesday; but it all comes out in the wash when you're working with 11 aircraft.

When MEL-LAX goes weekly, the SYD-YVR route can be absorbed by the other new SYD routes.

Isn’t there a SYD-YVR starting aswell 3 times weekly.
It might work but doesn’t allow much wiggle room for delays, mechanical faults etc

There's quite a lot of fat in these schedules. I'm guessing they'll get the extra 787s from Boeing before they schedule the last of these routes, but it is largely possible the way it is.

To revise above, you can do SYD-JNB-SYD-DFW or SFO-SYD with 3 aircraft, which gives you SYD-JNB daily, SYD-DFW 4x weekly and SYD-SFO 3x weekly. So that's one less aircraft. Now we have a complete spare frame for maintenance.
 
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N860CR

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Probably do what seemed to be pretty normal when a jumbo broke down and just cancel JNB regularly. Not like we had a whole lot of other choices…
 

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