Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

guiguioz

Junior Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Posts
23
Is there a game of bluff going on here or has the AU govt just not thought it through fully? International carriers say they aren’t releasing additional inventory on already scheduled inbound flights – let alone putting on more services – because they are concerned about the shambles that may ensue if/when more unvaccinated pax present themselves at overseas check-in than can be accommodated for HQ at the AU port of arrival. The carriers are also grumbling about having no means to flag vax status earlier at the point of booking.

These issues aren’t going to be fully resolved by governments confirming what the revised caps for unvaccinated pax will be, noting also that the PM’s statement has already confirmed that those caps should be at the original levels.

QF and a few other carriers have no such problems because of their vaccination mandate for all pax. Is the government’s intent to do and say nothing until the remaining carriers decide to impose their own mandates? And that would leave the special 'red flight' option for the unvaccinated.
The foreign airlines are definitively lobbying the government and trying to get fewer restrictions.
I am not convinced by their argument as you would assume that there would not be too many unvaccinated Australian travellers willing to come back and do hotel quarantine.
They would be better off running flights for vaccinated travellers (+ kids) only (something they will need to get used to for NZ as well). The demand for outbound travel in Nov/Dec/Jan is huge and currently not well catered for by QF (for instance for anyone travelling to Europe outside of London). I suspect the first ones of the likes of EK/QR/EY/SQ to release inventory for inbound flights for those months (outbound flights are plentiful) will get a lot of bookings (including mine) fairly quickly.
 

Tiki

Active Member
Joined
Jul 21, 2004
Posts
814
I wish the QLD premier would hurry up and and tell us if we can or cannot return . I have a trip to the US partly booked at the beginning of Feb. I want to book the rest, (connecting flights) make work plans etc. I couldn't afford to pay )or would want to, 2 weeks hotel quarantine.
Yeah I am stressing over this too. She just keeps coming up with excuses. "What about the children? Now she is trying to grab more money for hospitals. She needs to commit to the opening plan. Why does she keep stalling when Qld needs overseas tourists?
 

Tiki

Active Member
Joined
Jul 21, 2004
Posts
814
I thought there was some kind of IATA vax passport that all the big airlines signed up to? In the past any airline flying to certain countries in Africa used to ask for yellow fever certs or you couldn't board. What is so hard about that? Australia requires vax cert, just show it on check in.
 

simonsyd

Intern
Joined
May 13, 2009
Posts
74
Just arrived in the UK, fully vaccinated in Australia with Pfizer. Used British passport entering through E gate. Had printout of Medicare vaccination record and passenger locator form but there were no checks at all, didn't speak to a single person!
Great info thanks - I’ll be in the same situation in a few weeks..
 

dajop

Enthusiast
Joined
Jul 1, 2002
Posts
13,120
The foreign airlines are definitively lobbying the government and trying to get fewer restrictions.

Lobbying for fewer restrictions and I suspect also at the same time lobbying for clarity - maybe they're looking for a plan rather than an announcement.

Qantas have lead times for them to recommence services, bringing staff back on line, etc. They are not operating international services and have nothing to lose (except more cash). If the opening up doesn't go as announced they have the government to blame, and their teflon coated brand suits them well. International carriers, don't need the lead time, all they have to do when things are ready is get their yield managers to open up the booking classes on their inbound flights, and then gauge what demand is there and ramp up additional flights if necessary (OK a few more operational steps as well, but not like re-starting the whole operation). Also their brands don't quite have the teflon coating, that QF has, so are understandably waiting for clarity in case things get delayed or go not quite as announced, they've been burnt by short notice at a whim changes already.

At the moment, to me anyway, it is still rather unclear when the new arrangements will start, and what the conditions of home quarantine will be, what the testing will be etc etc.
 
Vinomofo is the best wine deals site on the planet. Good wines, real people and epic deals, without all the bowties and bs.

AFF Supporters can remove this and all advertisements

woodyren

Active Member
Joined
Aug 31, 2015
Posts
557
On Singapore. If (probably when) Australia is added to the Vaccinated Travel List (VTL) then the following currently applies:

PCR pre-departure: $150
PCR on arrival: $120
PCR day 3: $100
PCR day 7: $100
Possible PCR pre-return: $100

Perhaps not unexpected and not unique to Singapore, but a real dampener...
I have flights to and a booking for 3 nights in Singapore then onwards flights to Male. Not for a few months. Will be following developments re testing.
 

justinbrett

Established Member
Joined
Mar 6, 2006
Posts
3,863
Qantas
Platinum
It's going to be difficult for international airlines to fly to Australia who don't have a vaccine mandate.

As caps apply to unvaccinated, that's going to get complex to make sure the seats sold to unvaccinated passengers are within the caps - and distributed amongst the airlines.

I can see why a lot of them are hesitating. It's much easier for Qantas and Air New Zealand who have mandates.
 

Mrmaxwell

Established Member
Joined
May 18, 2007
Posts
1,280
Its gonna happen in about 3 weeks time but they need to make it official so that airlines can release bookings.

Both airlines and Aus airports have requested official information be released by the government so planning can commence. It is very late notice for airlines to lock in their peak flying schedule less than 90 days out with zero certainty and no way to advise customers who purchase tickets what they will be required to do once they arrive in Australia.

Eg. A customer buying a ticket needs to know if they need to be fully vaccinated with an approved vaccine and how much quarantine will be required, the cost and if they will be permitted to enter Australia at all. Lots of details still missing...
 

ayushamity

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2020
Posts
344
As caps apply to unvaccinated, that's going to get complex to make sure the seats sold to unvaccinated passengers are within the caps - and distributed amongst the airlines.

NSW will have 3500/week unvaccinated caps from late October.

At the moment caps are 750/week and as an example, Vietnam airlines are allowed 20 passengers per flight by the government based on their current flight schedule. How hard is it to make it up to 100 pax/flights on the same flight schedule ? (Considering that the increase in arrival caps will be five fold).
 

OATEK

Established Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2013
Posts
4,512
Both airlines and Aus airports have requested official information be released by the government so planning can commence. It is very late notice for airlines to lock in their peak flying schedule less than 90 days out with zero certainty and no way to advise customers who purchase tickets what they will be required to do once they arrive in Australia.

Eg. A customer buying a ticket needs to know if they need to be fully vaccinated with an approved vaccine and how much quarantine will be required, the cost and if they will be permitted to enter Australia at all. Lots of details still missing...
Sure, but flying is a business, and like any business demand will be key. I bet they are watching the searches on their web sites like a hawk.
 

tallboy

Member
Joined
Mar 31, 2006
Posts
145
Qantas
LT Gold
Virgin
Red
At this stage, only QF is selling inbound tickets from now until Feb. We are yet to see the likes of EK/QR/SQ releasing inventory for that period.
I suspect this is due to the uncertainties around how it will work for unvaccinated travellers (daily cap? cap per flight?) and the added complexity of asking for vaccination status at point of sale / booking. Much easier for QF or AirNZ as they are mandating vaccination on those flights.
Hello, any update to this for inbound seat availability? What is the best way to keep track of this in the near future?
 

justinbrett

Established Member
Joined
Mar 6, 2006
Posts
3,863
Qantas
Platinum
NSW will have 3500/week unvaccinated caps from late October.

At the moment caps are 750/week and as an example, Vietnam airlines are allowed 20 passengers per flight by the government based on their current flight schedule. How hard is it to make it up to 100 pax/flights on the same flight schedule ? (Considering that the increase in arrival caps will be five fold).

I'm not sure that number will stay that high once home quarantine starts - they want to scale down hotel quarantine, that's the whole point. It's a waste of resources.

It certainly won't be the same schedule as more and more airlines will be flying more flights to Australia.

At the moment, airlines don't have to consider vaccination status, so they sell the number of seats according to the caps. If they have to account for keeping track of vaccinated vs unvaccinated seats at time of sale, then enforcing this on check in, it does get complex.
 

Sbb4

Newbie
Joined
Aug 1, 2020
Posts
5
As reported by abc:

PM suggests international tourists could be allowed back into Australia next year​


Scott Morrison told Channel Seven that allowing Australians to travel and quarantine at home was the first step towards a broader reopening.

"The next priorities are skilled migrants that are very important for the country, and who are double vaccinated, as well as students who are coming and returning to Australia for their studies, they're another important priority."
"And we will get to international visitors as well, I believe next year."
 

guiguioz

Junior Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Posts
23
QF has a lead-up as they are running flights for vaccinated travellers only.
Things are more complex if you don't have such a mandate, as those airlines will be selling uncapped tickets for vaccinated travellers and capped tickets for unvaccinated travellers, with uncertainties around how that cap will work and how to capture the vaccination status at time of booking. Those airlines will be better off mandating vaccination for most of those flights (and maybe run a few 'red flights' with unvaccinated travellers)
 

antycbr

Established Member
Joined
Nov 9, 2009
Posts
2,035
Qantas
Bronze
Virgin
Platinum
QF has a lead-up as they are running flights for vaccinated travellers only.
Things are more complex if you don't have such a mandate, as those airlines will be selling uncapped tickets for vaccinated travellers and capped tickets for unvaccinated travellers, with uncertainties around how that cap will work and how to capture the vaccination status at time of booking. Those airlines will be better off mandating vaccination for most of those flights (and maybe run a few 'red flights' with unvaccinated travellers)
What would be the implications of all airlines insisting on vaccination coming to Australia? How would this play out with the 'stranded Aussies?'
 

Tiki

Active Member
Joined
Jul 21, 2004
Posts
814
They could build that into the booking system. You get a series of pop-ups.
1. Are you double vaccinated?
2. Can you supply proof on check-in? If you present for check-in without the required docs, you will be denied boarding with no refund.

That should scare off unvaxxed pax trying to sneak past. Warn them at time of booking.

I don't know why we would allow unvaxxed pax during the early days of this anyway. Just make a blanket vax only policy with exemptions for the necessary and a universally accepted doc for that.
 

guiguioz

Junior Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Posts
23
What would be the implications of all airlines insisting on vaccination coming to Australia? How would this play out with the 'stranded Aussies?'
NZ is mandating vaccination for all incoming travellers, so clearly something that can be done.
I am not sure we are talking about a very large number of unvaccinated 'stranded Aussies'. Those can always be catered by repatriation flights into DRW.
The airlines would be much better off releasing inventory now rather than waiting for clarification from the Feds / States.
 

ayushamity

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2020
Posts
344
What would be the implications of all airlines insisting on vaccination coming to Australia? How would this play out with the 'stranded Aussies?'

Then you got to be fair and accept all WHO vaccines. My missus is getting her first Sinopharm vaccine today and her second in 4 weeks. By the time she will be able to come here, she will be fully vaccinated using Sinopharm.

I bet people would be fuming if they are vaccinated and still can't come to Australia. At least at the moment, you can still come but have to do 14 day quarantine.
 

Enhance your AFF viewing experience!

From just $6 we'll remove all advertisements so that you can enjoy a cleaner and uninterupted viewing experience.

And you'll be supporting us so that we can continue to provide this valuable resource :)


Sample AFF with no advertisements? More..
Top