Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

MEL_Traveller

Enthusiast
Joined
Apr 27, 2005
Messages
23,544
Solutions
6
Points
1,820
It's completely understandable for the government to give Australian based airlines an advantage after the last 18 months. How many airlines overseas have gone bankrupt? How many that didn't are at least in part nationalised? (EK, NZ, SQ, QR, EY.... all of the ones mentioned in this thread!)

If it's legal and above board, it's in the national interest to do so.

And how many of those airlines kept flying? QF basically shut down any international services except for cargo. If it hadn't been for those international airlines we'd have been completely isolated.

Any 'advantage' that leads to higher prices is not good for consumers.
 

justinbrett

Established Member
Joined
Mar 6, 2006
Messages
3,557
Points
845
Qantas
Platinum
And how many of those airlines kept flying? QF basically shut down any international services except for cargo. If it hadn't been for those international airlines we'd have been completely isolated.

Any 'advantage' that leads to higher prices is not good for consumers.

Not a complete truth as Qantas has been flying pax internationally, just under government contracts. The flip side of this future advantage we speak of is Qantas has been most disadvantaged until now - those foreign airlines have many markets that don't have the restrictive pax caps. Again, they weren't doing it for charity.

Loss of our only remaining international airline is also not good for consumers. It would be an indirect advantage - we are probably a lot safer restricting pax flights to only airlines that have an vaccine mandate.
 
Last edited:

hb13

Active Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2013
Messages
670
Points
365
Qantas
Gold
So from what I'm seeing and again making an assumption - if things open up in December, it seems like it's likely on Aussies can quarantine at home - is this what others are assuming?

The second, most important question - are Aussies going to be treated the same if they arrive on a M/E airline as it stops over in the M/E vs Aussies arriving on direct flights from countries likely to be "green" such as Singapore/UK/US/Japan?

If that's the case, all this "opening" means is that this is really just a repatriation exercise where people can quarantine at home instead of a hotel......
 

jase05

Established Member
Joined
Jan 24, 2018
Messages
3,770
Points
820
Qantas
Gold
Virgin
Platinum
So from what I'm seeing and again making an assumption - if things open up in December, it seems like it's likely on Aussies can quarantine at home - is this what others are assuming?

The second, most important question - are Aussies going to be treated the same if they arrive on a M/E airline as it stops over in the M/E vs Aussies arriving on direct flights from countries likely to be "green" such as Singapore/UK/US/Japan?

If that's the case, all this "opening" means is that this is really just a repatriation exercise where people can quarantine at home instead of a hotel......
Select Aussies will be able to quarantine at home, can’t see it being a free for all for a very long time still
 

justinbrett

Established Member
Joined
Mar 6, 2006
Messages
3,557
Points
845
Qantas
Platinum
So from what I'm seeing and again making an assumption - if things open up in December, it seems like it's likely on Aussies can quarantine at home - is this what others are assuming?

The second, most important question - are Aussies going to be treated the same if they arrive on a M/E airline as it stops over in the M/E vs Aussies arriving on direct flights from countries likely to be "green" such as Singapore/UK/US/Japan?

If that's the case, all this "opening" means is that this is really just a repatriation exercise where people can quarantine at home instead of a hotel......

Can't speak for other states but Gladys has been very clear NSW will adopt home quarantine for returning residents and that people can return home and also depart for Christmas holidays, once we get to 80%.

I imagine the federal government will implement a traffic light system - green for bubble countries, amber for low risk countries (would think UAE would be included) and Red for high risk. Green no quarantine, amber home quarantine and red hotel quarantine.

Disagree with the last point - the freedom for Australians to leave the country without an exemption is a massive step forward, even if they have to home quarantine on return for 14 days. After some of my big trips overseas, I wouldn't have said no to an extra two weeks of leave.
 
Now with contactless delivery, shop online to get drinks delivered to your door or pick up in-store in 30 minutes. Lowest Liquor Price Guarantee. Biggest Range.

AFF Supporters can remove this and all advertisements

OATEK

Established Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2013
Messages
4,378
Points
985
So from what I'm seeing and again making an assumption - if things open up in December, it seems like it's likely on Aussies can quarantine at home - is this what others are assuming?

The second, most important question - are Aussies going to be treated the same if they arrive on a M/E airline as it stops over in the M/E vs Aussies arriving on direct flights from countries likely to be "green" such as Singapore/UK/US/Japan?

If that's the case, all this "opening" means is that this is really just a repatriation exercise where people can quarantine at home instead of a hotel......
Agree there is a lot we don't know, and the first month or so is going to throw up a few curve balls I'm sure. But I don't agree this will be equivalent to the repatriation exercise, as passenger loads will be much different, and access to seats will grow.
Can't speak for other states but Gladys has been very clear NSW will adopt home quarantine for returning residents and that people can return home and also depart for Christmas holidays, once we get to 80%.

I imagine the federal government will implement a traffic light system - green for bubble countries, amber for low risk countries (would think UAE would be included) and Red for high risk. Green no quarantine, amber home quarantine and red hotel quarantine.

Disagree with the last point - the freedom for Australians to leave the country without an exemption is a massive step forward, even if they have to home quarantine on return for 14 days. After some of my big trips overseas, I wouldn't have said no to an extra two weeks of leave.
We (in NSW) are pinning a lot on the success in coping with Covid as things open up, and I expect the length of time in home isolation will be a reflection of that. Likely to start at 14 days, but could finish up much lower within a month or two if things go well.
 

bulldog88

Intern
Joined
Feb 7, 2013
Messages
66
Points
90
Singapore Air is now operating a vaccinated-only flight corridor from Singapore to Germany (special arrangements in Singapore for those passengers).. it should be easy to extend that to Australia & home quarantine (I am sure Qantas will object unless it gets to join in )
 

hb13

Active Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2013
Messages
670
Points
365
Qantas
Gold
Agree there is a lot we don't know, and the first month or so is going to throw up a few curve balls I'm sure. But I don't agree this will be equivalent to the repatriation exercise, as passenger loads will be much different, and access to seats will grow.

We (in NSW) are pinning a lot on the success in coping with Covid as things open up, and I expect the length of time in home isolation will be a reflection of that. Likely to start at 14 days, but could finish up much lower within a month or two if things go well.

I think its extremely problematic that 3 months out we don't know a single thing about how this may work - because airlines and airports need to prepare.

I hope you're right about quarantine, but it is almost impossible for anyone to believe there won't be long and strict home quarantine requirements.

But my question is how will this be anything other than a repatriation exercise if the following holds true:
- Home quarantine is 14 days
- The countries from which people can travel to are a very small number, AND you must travel direct to avoid hotel quarantine.

If either of the above two points hold, this is nothing more than a repatriation exercise pure and simple. It'll be great for those stranded (assuming they have a house to quarantine in), but no one else. Most Aussies who are not stranded simply can't afford the time off to spend two weeks in isolation.
 

OATEK

Established Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2013
Messages
4,378
Points
985
I think its extremely problematic that 3 months out we don't know a single thing about how this may work - because airlines and airports need to prepare.

I hope you're right about quarantine, but it is almost impossible for anyone to believe there won't be long and strict home quarantine requirements.

But my question is how will this be anything other than a repatriation exercise if the following holds true:
- Home quarantine is 14 days
- The countries from which people can travel to are a very small number, AND you must travel direct to avoid hotel quarantine.

If either of the above two points hold, this is nothing more than a repatriation exercise pure and simple. It'll be great for those stranded (assuming they have a house to quarantine in), but no one else. Most Aussies who are not stranded simply can't afford the time off to spend two weeks in isolation.
I guess I am a cup half full person, and I see it as a great opportunity to visit my family without requiring approval to leave the country. People keep calling for certainty, but really if you are an airline (say QF) and you want to fly to/from AU then you have to take a chance. I feel more confident every day that things will begin to open in December, and grow in the New Year. But as I said, I am a cup half full type on this.
 

Telemachus

Intern
Joined
Sep 10, 2021
Messages
64
Points
140
Qantas
LT Gold
Virgin
Red
Agree there is a lot we don't know, and the first month or so is going to throw up a few curve balls I'm sure. But I don't agree this will be equivalent to the repatriation exercise, as passenger loads will be much different, and access to seats will grow.

We (in NSW) are pinning a lot on the success in coping with Covid as things open up, and I expect the length of time in home isolation will be a reflection of that. Likely to start at 14 days, but could finish up much lower within a month or two if things go well.
Yes, both inbound and outbound procedures in the first month or two after international travel restrictions are amended will undoubtedly be an ‘interesting’ experience for early adopters like you and me, OATEK, and of course for those returning from their enforced exile.

The National Plan, for all its caveats, is clear that Phase C involves no inbound caps or outbound restrictions for vaccinated Australians. It is less specific on ‘gradual reopening of inward and outward international travel with safe (sic) countries and proportionate quarantine and reduced requirements for fully vaccinated inbound travellers’. Recent statements by federal and state governments have firmed this up only to the extent of committing to a still unspecified home quarantine model.

There is a lot riding on interpretation of that word ‘proportionate’ in the Plan, a new notion as we move on from one-size-fits-all requirements. The PM is expecting Premiers at today’s NC to report on their home quarantine trials and plans; they in turn ought to be pressing him on an implementation timetable and on the detail of the traffic light or equivalent system that must come out of Canberra.

It’s relevant context that the UK is widely expected to use the forthcoming ‘checkpoint review’ of its red/amber/green system to simplify it by merging the amber and green countries (Traffic light system could be overhauled as soon as tomorrow). Since the classification of an arriving pax depends on the rating of transit port(s) as well as country of origin, this is exercising a strong influence on pax choice of route/carrier and on carriers’ willingness to increase services. DXB & AUH (UAE) and DOH (Qatar) went from red to amber in the UK system only on 8 Aug but have vaccination rates comparable to the UK so ought rationally to go green before long. One has to assume the Australian government has followed what has worked well and what has not in overseas models….
 
Last edited:

Lynda2475

Established Member
Joined
May 1, 2009
Messages
4,713
Solutions
1
Points
835
Qantas
Gold
Virgin
Red
Most Aussies who are not stranded simply can't afford the time off to spend two weeks in isolation.

Doesnt necessarily require any extra time off, millions of Aussies have been able to WFH during lockdowns, if you can wfh (so basically any office job) you work during home iso.

WFH is much easier for most than working from HQ.
 

hb13

Active Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2013
Messages
670
Points
365
Qantas
Gold
Doesnt necessarily require any extra time off, millions of Aussies have been able to WFH during lockdowns, if you can wfh (so basically any office job) you work during home iso.

WFH is much easier for most than working from HQ.

I was referring to Aussies living overseas. Even though the majority of the population living in Australia thinks of us as parasites, we would like to be able to spend Xmas/New Years with family and friends in Australia - however, if we need to isolate - home or hotel, this may be impossible for tens of thousands of us who need to be in the office now for at least 2-3 days per week.

The other massive issue, and I cannot stress this enough is transport back to Australia. If the UK for whatever reason is on the "green" list - what happens to all the Aussies in continental Europe?

Furthermore, the M/E 3 need to be viable modes of transport for us - if the Aussie government decides that we have to travel direct - which means only QF (or maybe SQ if SIN is green) - what do we do then if we can't get a seat on SQ or QF (and I'm certain those seats will go very quickly)?
 

Grimace1

Member
Joined
May 12, 2013
Messages
290
Points
165
Furthermore, the M/E 3 need to be viable modes of transport for us - if the Aussie government decides that we have to travel direct - which means only QF (or maybe SQ if SIN is green) - what do we do then if we can't get a seat on SQ or QF (and I'm certain those seats will go very quickly)?

I've been wondering the same thing, what happens to a person who arrives say in Sydney and they live in Cairns, Darwin, etc? They should at least allow people to go straight to the next flight to their home city.
 

Pushka

Veteran Member
Joined
Jan 26, 2011
Messages
28,026
Solutions
4
Points
3,350
Qantas
Platinum
Virgin
Red
I've been wondering the same thing, what happens to a person who arrives say in Sydney and they live in Cairns, Darwin, etc? They should at least allow people to go straight to the next flight to their home city.
JMO. I expect you will have to land in the city you live in which means Qantas is out for Adelaide people. Unless for Canberra people it can be guaranteed you will use a private car transport.
 

OATEK

Established Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2013
Messages
4,378
Points
985
I was referring to Aussies living overseas. Even though the majority of the population living in Australia thinks of us as parasites, we would like to be able to spend Xmas/New Years with family and friends in Australia - however, if we need to isolate - home or hotel, this may be impossible for tens of thousands of us who need to be in the office now for at least 2-3 days per week.

The other massive issue, and I cannot stress this enough is transport back to Australia. If the UK for whatever reason is on the "green" list - what happens to all the Aussies in continental Europe?

Furthermore, the M/E 3 need to be viable modes of transport for us - if the Aussie government decides that we have to travel direct - which means only QF (or maybe SQ if SIN is green) - what do we do then if we can't get a seat on SQ or QF (and I'm certain those seats will go very quickly)?
All your points are are reasonably well understood. My current consulting assignment involves a team member who is in UK. He had to go there because his Mum had suffered falls etc and needed to sort out a better arrangement for her ongoing care. He has had some trouble getting back to AU, but because his work can be carried out via Teams he has been in our interview sessions throughout the hours of darkness over there. Nothing about this is easy, and we had hoped to spend Christmas with our UK family last year, and then thought this year, and now maybe next year. Not always easy to be positive, but feel the cup half full approach is better.
 

Pushka

Veteran Member
Joined
Jan 26, 2011
Messages
28,026
Solutions
4
Points
3,350
Qantas
Platinum
Virgin
Red
All your points are are reasonably well understood. My current consulting assignment involves a team member who is in UK. He had to go there because his Mum had suffered falls etc and needed to sort out a better arrangement for her ongoing care. He has had some trouble getting back to AU, but because his work can be carried out via Teams he has been in our interview sessions throughout the hours of darkness over there. Nothing about this is easy, and we had hoped to spend Christmas with our UK family last year, and then thought this year, and now maybe next year. Not always easy to be positive, but feel the cup half full approach is better.
In reality for us, we have colleagues in UK working on our project, plus much of our other consulting work is in Melbourne. There is no difference at all given the breadth of Victorians closures, as to our operating cycle. Zoom. Office online meeting. Etc etc. We have been successful in getting an exemption to the UK last July but the time we were looking at booking was the week when all capacity was reduced and we could not risk one of the directors getting stuck over there so we didn't book.
 

twiningb

Active Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2015
Messages
650
Solutions
1
Points
295
Somewhat unrelated, but perhaps not. A friend of mine owns a Specsavers franchise and the communication from head office regarding reducing staffing levels for ‘x’ time has coincided with every single Victorian lockdown announcement with 100% accuracy. When a one week snap lockdown was announced, the communication was for two weeks of reduced staffing and shock horror…. The lockdown was extended by a week, leading me to conclude it was always going to be two weeks but it was less palatable to admit it from the start. Makes you wonder what the governments are telling industry but not the population.
How long did they predict for the current one?
 

Enhance your AFF viewing experience!

From just $6 we'll remove all advertisements so that you can enjoy a cleaner and uninterupted viewing experience.

And you'll be supporting us so that we can continue to provide this valuable resource :)


Sample AFF with no advertisements? More..
Top