Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

Must...Fly!

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 12, 2010
Messages
5,893
Points
990
Qantas
Gold
Virgin
Platinum
Maybe it's all a cunning ploy so that everyone realises we ain't going nowhere until end-2022. Then people realise they better get vaccinated.
I would hope this to be somehow true, but there doesn't seem to nearly enough cunning in the leaders attend these national meetings for such a strategy, I'm afraid.
 

olliekeighley

Junior Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2020
Messages
17
Points
45
I would hope this to be somehow true, but there doesn't seem to nearly enough cunning in the leaders attend these national meetings for such a strategy, I'm afraid.
Haha for sure. The government wouldn't be so convoluted. And anyway some older groups might not care so much about going to UK, USA etc.....
 

JB expat

Active Member
Joined
Jul 14, 2011
Messages
576
Solutions
1
Points
380
Qantas
Platinum
I would hope this to be somehow true, but there doesn't seem to nearly enough cunning in the leaders attend these national meetings for such a strategy, I'm afraid.
Agree...now I really want a lottery - that will do it. $50 million - with 50 possible winners of $1 million each. Everyone fully vaccinated by X date is eligible with X being 2 months post full supply. Automatically entered via medicare unless you opt out. Will get us there a whole lot faster and a bet at much less cost than the current plan with incentives that I fear won't appeal to enough people.
 

hb13

Active Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2013
Messages
631
Points
365
Qantas
Gold
So these targets - basically 80% of eligible people need to be vaccinated for caps abolished for returning Australians - is this correct? And are eligible people over 16s or over 12s? Because last week over 12s were approved for the vaccine in Australia right?

Does that mean returning Australians will need to quarantine at home? And for how long - will it be 7 days or 14 days?
 

roogirl

Member
Joined
Nov 1, 2012
Messages
154
Points
215
This is another no-plan. Australia will NEVER get to 80% vaccination. And really nor does it need to if you accept that covid will become endemic and some level of infection will occur. So now the new timetable goes something like

- Christmas - nowhere near 70% of people are vaxxed. Pleas to the population to do so.

- start of election campaign - say March 2022 - still lagging horribly. Any sensible question about what happens next if the 70/80% target is reached is displaced by jingoism and partisan pre election politics and sound bites.

- post election - whichever party is in power releases another “4 horizons style” plan conditional on lots of other things happening.

- then..???

I don’t see international travel coming back / home quarantine coming in before 2023 with these hurdles.
 

MooTime

Active Member
Joined
Mar 1, 2019
Messages
618
Points
295
Qantas
Gold
Virgin
Gold
This is another no-plan. Australia will NEVER get to 80% vaccination. And really nor does it need to if you accept that covid will become endemic and some level of infection will occur. So now the new timetable goes something like

- Christmas - nowhere near 70% of people are vaxxed. Pleas to the population to do so.

- start of election campaign - say March 2022 - still lagging horribly. Any sensible question about what happens next if the 70/80% target is reached is displaced by jingoism and partisan pre election politics and sound bites.

- post election - whichever party is in power releases another “4 horizons style” plan conditional on lots of other things happening.

- then..???

I don’t see international travel coming back / home quarantine coming in before 2023 with these hurdles.
With that kind of attitude your an anti vaxer for sure.

Very optimistic outlook, lucky your not in gov.
 

roogirl

Member
Joined
Nov 1, 2012
Messages
154
Points
215
With that kind of attitude your an anti vaxer for sure.

Very optimistic outlook, lucky your not in gov.
Eh? I’m double vaxxed, with the evil Astra Zeneca no less.

It’s not government’s job to be optimistic, as the current debacle in Sydney / the approach to the vaccine stroll out very clearly shows. It’s their job to come up with a plan that deals with the circumstances they face.

Anyway, interested in how YOU think this is going to play out. What’s your prediction? Everyone is vaxxed by Christmas, borders open January and everything is tickety boo?
 

NoName

Established Member
Joined
Aug 1, 2012
Messages
1,917
Points
565
Agree...now I really want a lottery - that will do it. $50 million - with 50 possible winners of $1 million each. Everyone fully vaccinated by X date is eligible with X being 2 months post full supply. Automatically entered via medicare unless you opt out. Will get us there a whole lot faster and a bet at much less cost than the current plan with incentives that I fear won't appeal to enough people.

They could (should??) have 1 lottery each month for a year and give 1,000 winners $1m each and it would still be a drop in the ocean compared to what has already been spent.
 

Pushka

Veteran Member
Joined
Jan 26, 2011
Messages
27,766
Solutions
4
Points
3,350
Qantas
Platinum
Virgin
Red
They could (should??) have 1 lottery each month for a year and give 1,000 winners $1m each and it would still be a drop in the ocean compared to what has already been spent.
Somehow I think everyone in the decision making process is getting hung up on the 'ethics' of financial incentives and in the process is screwing up what could be a golden opportunity to maximise vaccination.
 

MooTime

Active Member
Joined
Mar 1, 2019
Messages
618
Points
295
Qantas
Gold
Virgin
Gold
quick maths
note sure how realistic 60k doses on weekend days is i have food ordered so dont have time to look it up lol

View attachment 254315
We're a chance of 2021. Great calc.

I think with tga approving Pfizer for 12-15yo's that 80% pop figure may need to be increased.
This has to be confirmed ASAP, like next week by PM. Vital, but not sure when that age group will get their chance at the jab & also comes down to the parents giving the ok.
What other countries doing with 12-15yo?
 

louie-m

Member
Joined
Nov 24, 2020
Messages
172
Points
205
quick maths
note sure how realistic 60k doses on weekend days is i have food ordered so dont have time to look it up lol

View attachment 254315
Problem with that calculation is assuming that 200k per (week)day will continue once (a) Sydney gets its outbreak under control (at which point people will stop thinking they are at risk, as has been seen in Melbourne since their last big outbreak eased) and (b) those keen to get jabbed have been jabbed. I think, sadly, that your estimate is wildly optimistic.
Post automatically merged:

honestly i couldnt make this s**t up ... that calc comes out to 8/12/21 and my booking is ....

View attachment 254317
BA16? That's even more optimistic!
 
Last edited:

Pom-DownUnder

Active Member
Joined
Jan 4, 2020
Messages
524
Points
360
Problem with that calculation is assuming that 200k per (week)day will continue once (a) Sydney gets its outbreak under control (at which point people will stop thinking they are at risk, as has been seen in Melbourne since their last big outbreak eased) and (b) those keen to get jabbed have been jabbed. I think, sadly, that your estimate is wildly optimistic.
Post automatically merged:


BA16? That's even more optimistic!
I really think once it gets to about 60-65% the enthusiasm will drop off a cliff, thats the real problem.
 
Transform your lounge room (or any indoor space) into your own private movie theatre in just a few seconds.

Our Mini Pocket Projector is small, light and easily transportable. A must have!

AFF Supporters can remove this and all advertisements

mviy

Established Member
Joined
Dec 1, 2015
Messages
4,297
Points
815
It’s boiled down to a classic chicken and egg problem. We need incentives such as reopened international borders to motivate the stragglers to get vaccinated, but they won’t give that incentive until the vaccine target is reached.
 

MEL_Traveller

Enthusiast
Joined
Apr 27, 2005
Messages
23,309
Solutions
6
Points
1,820
Maybe they're setting the target at 80% in the hope it spurs people to at least get to 70%? And when we get to 70% they'll say the medical/economic advice says it's ok to have home Q.

I can't see another Christmas of Aussies not being allowed to return.
 

twiningb

Active Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2015
Messages
627
Solutions
1
Points
295
Somehow I think everyone in the decision making process is getting hung up on the 'ethics' of financial incentives and in the process is screwing up what could be a golden opportunity to maximise vaccination.
(Please understand that I say this while agreeing with you.)

What's not ethical is locking millions of people in their homes, cutting into my kids' education and piling more and more debt for decades on my children so that apparatchiks can not-work from home rather than the office.
Post automatically merged:

Maybe they're setting the target at 80% in the hope it spurs people to at least get to 70%? And when we get to 70% they'll say the medical/economic advice says it's ok to have home Q.

I can't see another Christmas of Aussies not being allowed to return.
I don't see how after eighteen months of this anyone could conclude, Actually they're being sensible but won't tell us about it.
 

twiningb

Active Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2015
Messages
627
Solutions
1
Points
295
It’s boiled down to a classic chicken and egg problem. We need incentives such as reopened international borders to motivate the stragglers to get vaccinated, but they won’t give that incentive until the vaccine target is reached.
Isn't it even more than that, that a large chunk of the people who don't want to get vaccinated legitimately don't care if they never go overseas?

The correct policy is: Screw them. I am entitled to leave. They can be vaccinated or not.
 
Top