Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[hb13]

That's understandable, pre vaccine. Post vaccine is potentially a very different story.

You keep saying that, but what sign is there that things will change, apart from little verbal tidbits here and there? One thing we know for sure is that Victoria is building a quarantine facility which means they are thinking at least another 18 - 24 months of this. States are still worried about a single case. There haven't been any cases in a while, which is why all state borders are open. But the moment a few cases pop up, everything will be shut again.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

You keep saying that, but what sign is there that things will change, apart from little verbal tidbits here and there? One thing we know for sure is that Victoria is building a quarantine facility which means they are thinking at least another 18 - 24 months of this. States are still worried about a single case. There haven't been any cases in a while, which is why all state borders are open. But the moment a few cases pop up, everything will be shut again.

The special quarantine facility doesn't mean all international arrivals will have to go there. It might be that the majority of returning Aussies, with a home to go to, can quarantine there, if it's still a thing. People coming to Australia without a home... seasonal workers, students, sports players... they'll have a dedicated facility. Maybe even Aussies returning who haven't had access to the vaccine overseas. Or maybe Aussies returning from a specific country or region where a new strain has developed and the vaccine doesn't work. It could just be good planning.

 

[N860CR]

Maybe even Aussies returning who haven't had access to the vaccine overseas. Or maybe Aussies returning from a specific country or region where a new strain has developed and the vaccine doesn't work. It could just be good planning.

I believe this is likely to be part of any future plan. While we currently couldn’t care less if people come home without critical vaccines like Yellow Fever, the public has been so worked into hysteria about COVID that there will be no appetite for unvaccinated people entering the country.

I would suspect the facility will be around for a long time to come for those who are arriving unvaccinated.

 

[drron]

Yes they are probably thinking that someone in Sydney will get the SA Covid strain so they need somewhere large to put up all the Sydney folk in Vic.

 

[OATEK]

The special quarantine facility doesn't mean all international arrivals will have to go there. It might be that the majority of returning Aussies, with a home to go to, can quarantine there, if it's still a thing. People coming to Australia without a home... seasonal workers, students, sports players... they'll have a dedicated facility. Maybe even Aussies returning who haven't had access to the vaccine overseas. Or maybe Aussies returning from a specific country or region where a new strain has developed and the vaccine doesn't work. It could just be good planning.

But at this stage it is just speculation, and nothing more.

 

[twiningb]

Can you blame them they’ve been screeched at by state premiers promising death to everyone for the better part of a year. People were whipped into a state of fear.

You absolutely can blame them, and I do. People get the government they deserve, etc etc.

 

[Pushka]

You absolutely can blame them, and I do. People get the government they deserve, etc etc.

The people doing the screeching are the CHO and PC’s. I didn’t vote for them.

 

[DC3]

The special quarantine facility doesn't mean all international arrivals will have to go there. It might be that the majority of returning Aussies, with a home to go to, can quarantine there, if it's still a thing. People coming to Australia without a home... seasonal workers, students, sports players... they'll have a dedicated facility. Maybe even Aussies returning who haven't had access to the vaccine overseas. Or maybe Aussies returning from a specific country or region where a new strain has developed and the vaccine doesn't work ...

You may know more about this than our leaders.

However, we may have to await on an announcement about this. Or, at least an announcement about the forthcoming announcement.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The people doing the screeching are the CHO and PC’s. I didn’t vote for them.

That’s a fair point- all governments have become covid-technocratic (as opposed to technocracy) because of covid. Those that haven’t well - the results are also out there on planet Earth.

 

[Kimpos]

Is there any comfort to be had from this email from Thai Airways? I realize this is all still subject to Fed Govt however the October date is a slender thread I want to hold onto!

Flight Schedules Update:
Scheduled flights between Australia and Thailand have been further suspended or reduced until 27 Oct ’21. Flights will be subject to the adjustment of Government policies to reopen the borders of Australia and Thailand for unrestricted international travel.

 

[oznflfan]

Is there any comfort to be had from this email from Thai Airways? I realize this is all still subject to Fed Govt however the October date is a slender thread I want to hold onto!

Flight Schedules Update:
Scheduled flights between Australia and Thailand have been further suspended or reduced until 27 Oct ’21. Flights will be subject to the adjustment of Government policies to reopen the borders of Australia and Thailand for unrestricted international travel.

Very slender chance for October. Much better chance for sometime in first half of 2022.

 

[mviy]

It’s possible the government could have had private conversations under NDA with airlines but there’s so many moving parts that even if so no date would be committed to.

The airlines are clinging to a best case scenario I suspect where the vaccine rollout ramps up successfully and quickly with few, if any further problems, and where the government allows international travel as soon as vaccination is complete or nearly complete.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Is there any comfort to be had from this email from Thai Airways? I realize this is all still subject to Fed Govt however the October date is a slender thread I want to hold onto!

Flight Schedules Update:
Scheduled flights between Australia and Thailand have been further suspended or reduced until 27 Oct ’21. Flights will be subject to the adjustment of Government policies to reopen the borders of Australia and Thailand for unrestricted international travel.

I wouldn't read too much in to that. The date(s) roughly align with the (northern) summer timetable period (last week of March to last week of October every year). This is standard across many airlines and aligns with daylight saving/summer time (and the reverse in October).

This announcement is likely confirming no flights to AU for this timetable period (March-October 2021)

 

[hb13]

I wouldn't read too much in to that. The date(s) roughly align with the (northern) summer timetable period (last week of March to last week of October every year). This is standard across many airlines and aligns with daylight saving/summer time 9and the reverse in October).

This announcement is likely confirming no flights to AU for this timetable period (March-October 2021)

Yeh exactly - that email is more bad news than good.

 

[jb747]

Time to update.

My original guess was the end of 2020 domestically, and end of 2021 internationally. Now I don't think we're going to see appreciable movement on either until the vaccination campaign is complete. The politicians are far too prone to panic, and who want to risk being caught by snap quarantine measures.

So, even though we've seen sporadic domestic aviation, my guess now is that it won't be unrestricted until early 2023. Internationally will be at least six months after completion of the program, so end of 2023, and perhaps even 2024.

I'll be happy to be totally wrong, but thus far I haven't seen anything that makes me confident in any of the governments involved.

 

[mviy]

The vaccine rollout should be finished early 2022. I hope new variants don’t push out the ability to travel till 2024.

Once I’m vaccinated if I’m not allowed to travel without an exemption I’ll be applying for one and I expect a lot of others will too clogging up the system for travel exemptions.

 

[DC3]

... Once I’m vaccinated if I’m not allowed to travel without an exemption I’ll be applying for one ...

Late 2021, or early 2022, is looking promising. Just need to get the vax into arms.

 

[jakeseven7]

Late 2021, or early 2022, is looking promising. Just need to get the vax into arms.

Assuming it works on the variants / mutants..... and initial data suggests not very effective against a couple of the new ones unfortunately.

 

[drron]

It really depends on what we mean by begins. Domestic flights have definitely begun but are by no means normal. I don't see that happening until 2023 at the absolute earliest.
International is likely to start this year even if just to NZ. However it is likely to be 2024/25 at least before it is anything like normal.

 

[DC3]

The vaccine rollout should be finished early 2022. I hope new variants don’t push out the ability to travel till 2024.

Once I’m vaccinated if I’m not allowed to travel without an exemption I’ll be applying for one and I expect a lot of others will too clogging up the system for travel exemptions.

It’s never too early to start planning. Stay optimistic.