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Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

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While I’m not personally in this situation having burned all my annual leave on trips in 2019 (good timing) a lot of people working to me watch the same problems especially those in Victoria they don’t what to take forced leave and stay within 5 kms of their home.

Staff in other states and just taken holidays locally so not as bad as situation but a few of them had been saving leave for an international trip which they now have to use for a local holiday.
I'd consider it a first world problem though.

  1. They still have a job
  2. They're being paid to take time off

A lot of people don't have either/both of those luxuries.
 

drron

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Well if by May we are allowed to leave to places such as Japan,South Korea and hopefully Taiwan even if on return we have to isolate at home we will strongly consider going.
 

jakeseven7

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Japan set to lift travel ban with Australia


Japan is set to slowly lift overseas travel bans as early as next month according to local news organisation Nikkei Asian Review.

The good news for all of us is, Australia’s on the official list.

The Japanese government will reportedly give priority to 10 countries and regions that have a low number of COVID-19 infections, those countries include Australia and New Zealand.


Also, from the start of next month, the Japanese government will lower Australia to a ‘level 2’ warning, which advises Japanese nationals to avoid nonessential travel. Prior to that Australia was considered ‘level 3’ which urged citizens to avoid travel completely.

From October 1, the government will open its borders to people who have permission to stay in the country for three months.

 

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This could be a step in the right direction:

It comes as Prime Minister Scott Morrison confirmed the mandatory scheme could be scrapped in favour of a new “triage” system that allows international travellers to quarantine at home under strict conditions.
 

hb13

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I think overall there are some promising moves from Australia, NZ and some of these Asian countries, which is great to see.

As someone currently based in the UK, I can tell you that Europe and the UK (and probably the US) are far, far away. We are about to start a long, cold, winter and cases have been on the rise for weeks. Our current peaks are higher than April/May and going up.

I think it'll most likely be 2022 before quarantine free travel to/from Australia to Europe/UK/US will occur.
 
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I think overall there are some promising moves from Australia, NZ and some of these Asian countries, which is great to see.

As someone currently based in the UK, I can tell you that Europe and the UK (and probably the US) are far, far away. We are about to start a long, cold, winter and cases have been on the rise for weeks. Our current peaks are higher than April/May and going up.

I think it'll most likely be 2022 before quarantine free travel to/from Australia to Europe/UK/US will occur.
Yes, but there's more testing happening now. If the same level of testing was done back in March-May the numbers reported then would have been far higher...

I think 2021 will have quarantine free travel, but will be replaced by the requirement for a negative PCR (or similar) test. We're already starting to see countries in Europe require that now, whereas previously they didn't.
 

MEL_Traveller

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I think it'll most likely be 2022 before quarantine free travel to/from Australia to Europe/UK/US will occur.
Vaccine, prevention, treatments - or any combination of those. I think mid 2021 for the ability to travel again. (fingers crossed!)
 

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Vaccine, prevention, treatments - or any combination of those. I think mid 2021 for the ability to travel again. (fingers crossed!)
Negative PCR tests is going to be the main one, with some sort of self iso period required if doing it on arrival and none if done <72 hours prior to arrival.
 

MEL_Traveller

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Negative PCR tests is going to be the main one, with some sort of self iso period required if doing it on arrival and none if done <72 hours prior to arrival.
Not sure that's going to help people going on holiday! Better to have a vaccine and/or be able to pop a pill and be protected!
 

hb13

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Yes, but there's more testing happening now. If the same level of testing was done back in March-May the numbers reported then would have been far higher...

I think 2021 will have quarantine free travel, but will be replaced by the requirement for a negative PCR (or similar) test. We're already starting to see countries in Europe require that now, whereas previously they didn't.
Vaccine, prevention, treatments - or any combination of those. I think mid 2021 for the ability to travel again. (fingers crossed!)
I really, really hope you guys are right.

Quarantine free travel just seems like a far away dream......
 

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I really, really hope you guys are right.

Quarantine free travel just seems like a far away dream......
Living in London (as I do too), you've had a good stab at it for the last few months at least. Things are slowly starting to lock down now, there's 1 day left in the BA sale and flights are dirt cheap right now anyway so book something to Italy next week and you're laughing assuming self isolating on return isn't an issue!
 

Toula92122

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Anyone who is dreaming of a US trip in the near future should closely examine that desire. Numbers here are out of control and way under reported. Here in San Diego we can't get a covid test that easily. Even if we complete the questionnaire and note that we are displaying symptoms we are told to self isolate at home but no test. Reading the local paper it's becoming more obvious numbers are being fudged to prevent being knocked back to the strictest level of restrictions. Even Hawaii where we have been considering moving, have to take into account that they do not have the resources to test more than 2,500 people a day so if there is a serious outbreak it could seriously get away quickly.

I have noticed Hawaiian Air have pushed back their HNL to Sydney flights from 2 December to 27 March. It is frustrating as airline are continuing to sell seats between US-Oz when it's obvious they are not running. For people wanting to get back from the US it's becoming harder as prices are getting out of control. Tickets that were previously $5-6k for business class on United are running $11-16k on some dates. If one can be flexible flights can be found in the $6k range but how does a family pay for that and fund the extra month waiting?
 

jakeseven7

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I really, really hope you guys are right.

Quarantine free travel just seems like a far away dream......
There is a lot of blind faith in a vaccine coming quickly and more importantly effectively. This is being fed by countries that have completely failed to contain the virus in any way like the UK and US.

Because they literally have no other option now. Some believe it’s just puffy PR to keep their populations under control.

It is highly highly likely that the first tranche of vaccines will be no where near the 90% level of effectiveness required to make a serious dent in this virus.

I’m hoping for the same as everyone else but will would quite literally be a miracle for it to come quickly and effectively which means we really have to learn to live with this virus, even when a vaccine becomes available and before it does as well.
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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There is a lot of blind faith in a vaccine coming quickly and more importantly effectively. This is being fed by countries that have completely failed to contain the virus in any way like the UK and US.

Because they literally have no other option now. Some believe it’s just puffy PR to keep their populations under control.

It is highly highly likely that the first tranche of vaccines will be no where near the 90% level of effectiveness required to make a serious dent in this virus.

I’m hoping for the same as everyone else but will would quite literally be a miracle for it to come quickly and effectively which means we really have to learn to live with this virus, even when a vaccine becomes available and before it does as well.
You’ve been watching ABC News Breakfast or reading ABC COVID blog....lol

DON'T expect vaccine early next year, epidemiologist says


News Breakfast
@BreakfastNews

A coronavirus vaccine may not be available until 2022 — anything sooner is optimistic, says epidemiologist and WHO adviser @MarylouiseMcla1 "[Places] like the USA, the UK and the EU are really relying on a vaccine because they left it too late to try to get their numbers down."



Predictions of a vaccine appearing in early 2021 are very optimistic, according to UNSW professor of epidemiology Mary-Louise McLaws.

It's more likely to appear late next year, with the roll-out bleeding into 2022, according to the WHO adviser.

"The production is very difficult. Then of course we'll have to decide who is appropriate to get the vaccine, because not all vaccines will be appropriate for the elderly. And then roll that out.

"We're looking at least until the end of next year and of course 2022 for everyone to be vaccinated."
She said Australia's rapid response to the pandemic means we don't have to rely on the vaccine as much as some other countries, like the US, UK and Europe, which are seeing second waves.

"It's very difficult for them now to even put in things like curfews because their community's not used to this and they're finding it very difficult emotionally to even think about a small curfew with [pubs]," she said.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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For the NZ international border....from ABC Covid live blog

Hotspot definition at centre of trans-Tasman travel bubble delay

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the next step towards resuming trans-Tasman travel rests with Australia.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been unable to get agreement from all of the states and territories on a uniform definition of a hotspot.

Mr Morrison is hoping rapid containment of COVID-19 hotspots will be sufficient to ease both interstate and international borders.

Ms Ardern has told Channel 9 New Zealand is waiting on that before proceeding with trans-Tasman travel.

"We will just need to make sure that hotspot regime works on our side, too, but we're all quite dedicated to making it work in the future," she said this morning.
 

RAM

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Another version of kicking the can down the road which seems to be the central playbook for too many Governments.

Balanced against that is the underlying imperative driving seemingly all politicians - "Whatever it takes I need to ensure my snout stays in the trough, & that means keeping our donors (vested interests/big business) onside."

Interesting articles in NY about Cuomo ignoring his expert advice panel whose advice is not to re-open the schools as there is a massive teacher shortage. This advice was given 4 months ago & not a single additional teacher has been sought let alone employed.

As many have discussed above - home quarantine does not work 100%. So many of the Mlebourne intial outbreaks post the 'human waste hotel room' incident - involved 'large families' not following the rules for one reason or another.

Add in the 3 Qld covidiots who single handedly nearly closed down SEAQ - and that demonstrates how human nature is guaranteed to see outbreaks if hotel quarantine (properly run & administered) is shelved for 'home quarantine'.

Or perhaps consider the single Melbourne logistics worker who accidentally started the Crosswonds outbreak in NSW.

Given that across Australia more than one person out of 10 has served a custodial sentence (jail time) - there is a significant group who actively live the belief that laws are only for other people - for these people their own outcomes over-rule everything else. Hold-on, sounds like they should become politicians....

Actually given the current ICAC hearings, perhaps too many of them have!

One person can have a massive adverse impact. In a perfect world we would not need enforced hotel quarantine, nor would their be paedophiles - hoping this is the case is no way to run a country.
 

jb747

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I keep hearing about more and more hurdles in the way of airline restarts. Whilst many would, in the normal course of events, be simple to resolve, the numbers involved this time make it much more difficult.

We already knew that pilots’ licences were expiring, and with that could come an entire raft of things to be done to get the licence back. CASA is slow at the best of times, so given the backlog, I’d hate to guess how long it could take to get that piece of paper again. Medicals fall into the same category.

ID cards. They normally take two months, if you are lucky, just to renew one in the normal course of events. None are being renewed at the moment, and people are actually being asked to return them. Once we get to the end of the year, probably about half of all airline and airport staff will need them to be renewed. Again I would hate to guess how long this will take.

Back when AJ and others were hoping for a July 2020 gradual restart, there would have been few issues, and it could have happened over a couple of weeks. By January 21, the time line will be in increments of 6 months. I don’t know at what point it becomes impossible, but that would be in there somewhere.
 

jakeseven7

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You’ve been watching ABC News Breakfast or reading ABC COVID blog....lol

DON'T expect vaccine early next year, epidemiologist says


News Breakfast
@BreakfastNews

A coronavirus vaccine may not be available until 2022 — anything sooner is optimistic, says epidemiologist and WHO adviser @MarylouiseMcla1 "[Places] like the USA, the UK and the EU are really relying on a vaccine because they left it too late to try to get their numbers down."



Predictions of a vaccine appearing in early 2021 are very optimistic, according to UNSW professor of epidemiology Mary-Louise McLaws.

It's more likely to appear late next year, with the roll-out bleeding into 2022, according to the WHO adviser.



She said Australia's rapid response to the pandemic means we don't have to rely on the vaccine as much as some other countries, like the US, UK and Europe, which are seeing second waves.
LOL no I hadn't! But this is a 'good' story and the same story that keeps coming up from the medical professionals

No one wants to talk about the likely effectiveness of the first wave of vaccines though because its going to upset a lot of people, so it gets continually buried and people put their head in the sand.

Lets just hope for a miracle, but we can't plan on one, even if overwhelmed countries don't have any other option.
 

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