Middle East Airspace Diversions/Cancellations

[lovestotravel]

The ME war has a major impact on awards on Sq.

Next August, I could only get an Advantage J award rtn Syd-Sin-Mxp.
Cost was 181K pts each way cf to 141K in Saver which was nowhere to be seen.

Yep much harder than it used to be now on SQ

Savers are around but the popular ones go at 355 days out within an hour or two of being available

 

[kpc]

Yep much harder than it used to be now on SQ

Savers are around but the popular ones go at 355 days out within an hour or two of being available

I booked at 355 days out at 10am EST
After that, there was not even Advantage!

 

[kamchatsky]

I booked at 355 days out at 10am EST
After that, there was not even Advantage!

SQ knows that they don't have to give Saver seats and people will still book Advantage anyway.

 

[kpc]

SQ knows that they don't have to give Saver seats and people will still book Advantage anyway.

The great (silent) devaluation of the Kris Flyer program. Plenty of Access awards

 

[SYD]

That would be my backup strategy if required. However, with 4 people that makes it $16K, and then more airfares between SYD-CGK or other SEA ports.

There's generally good CR availability SYD<->CGK (inc 4x J). In July 2027 there's probably still seats.

But for me, EK, EY, QR, RX, WY, GF are all out.

I have already secured 4 * CX J HKG-MAD awards, I just need to see if I can secure CX J coming back ..... But mid-July could be difficult as it is start of Northern Hemisphere summer holidays. Will see.

We recently successfully same day transferred on separate tickets at CGK - inbound CX (paid) to QF CR. Bit of a weird experience but worked.

 

[AIRwin]

Just saw this Emirates ad on TV:

EMIRATES: WHEN THE HEADLINES BECAME THE AD

Most airlines facing a year shaped by regional conflict, airspace disruption and difficult travel headlines might be tempted to keep the conversation narrowly focused on destinations and fares. Emirates did something more self-aware.

www.linkedin.com

 

[clifford]

Given th US' plans for Iran, I'd be wary of booking anything through the ME.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-israel-develop-plans-for-renewed-strikes-on-iran-after-midterm-elections-report/4096580

 

[kpc]

Just saw this Emirates ad on TV:

EMIRATES: WHEN THE HEADLINES BECAME THE AD

Most airlines facing a year shaped by regional conflict, airspace disruption and difficult travel headlines might be tempted to keep the conversation narrowly focused on destinations and fares. Emirates did something more self-aware.

www.linkedin.com

Are the UAE authorities still banning any comment / footage / coverage of the war on Iran? Will take more than a glitzy video to entice me back to UAE/ Qatar for now...

 

[elanshin]

Are the UAE authorities still banning any comment / footage / coverage of the war on Iran? Will take more than a glitzy video to entice me back to UAE/ Qatar for now...

The country has always had censorship. Most influencers just never really had to find out the hard way about it.

 

[Seat0B]

Nooooooooooooo! First the wedding, now the new Grandchild meet and greet. Why oh why does Seat Son stay there. For crying out loud he just bought a house. Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

 

[RooFlyer]

Given th US' plans for Iran, I'd be wary of booking anything through the ME.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-israel-develop-plans-for-renewed-strikes-on-iran-after-midterm-elections-report/4096580

I changed my stopover on 3-4 Nov to a transit on morning of 2 Nov a month or so back. <midterms being the 3rd>

 

[I love to travel]

Do people really think that everything will start up again in early November?

 

[Saab34]

Do people really think that everything will start up again in early November?

The period after the midterms as is about as unknown as yesterday.

If they lose both the Senate/House he will want to change the dialogue in the press so bombing the heck out of Iran will shift focus.

 

[jrfsp]

Do people really think that everything will start up again in early November?

Gulf nations brace for possible return to all-out war

The volatility around the Israeli and US midterm elections is fueling fears of renewed US-Israeli strikes on Iran in a short and intensive military campaign to push Tehran into concessions, with Iran vowing a devastating response against the Gulf nations.

www.euronews.com

Certainly a possibility….only the madmen know at this stage , I wouldn’t book to transit the ME

 

[offshore171]

We are looking at going to Europe next year. Despite I booked 4 * EK J MUC-DXB-HKG on Qantas points for July next year, my missus is absolutely adamant that we won't be transitting in the Middle East, and rather fly Y direct from Europe to Asia if required.

Note sure routes via SE Asia are much better though. They actually skirt closer to Iranian airspace than the ME3 do. And they overfly the Black Sea, which is also an active war zone.

Polar route probably the best right now. This usually entails going via Japan or Korea

 

[jrfsp]

Note sure routes via SE Asia are much better though. They actually skirt closer to Iranian airspace than the ME3 do. And they overfly the Black Sea, which is also an active war zone.

Polar route probably the best right now. This usually entails going via Japan or Korea

Now that Saudi airspace is also out of the picture for western airlines, the only route left is over Afghanistan, through flow managed uncontrolled airspace - similar to transiting oceanic airspace….

 

[SYD]

The period after the midterms as is about as unknown as yesterday.

If they lose both the Senate/House he will want to change the dialogue in the press so bombing the heck out of Iran will shift focus.

Also elections in Israel. This weekend?

 

[lovestotravel]

Do people really think that everything will start up again in early November?

Yes

 

[elanshin]

Do people really think that everything will start up again in early November?

We really don't know. There's all the indications that we could see more conflict flare up.

I know we try not to bring politics in here on AFF, but there are a lot of potential reasons why things in the past month has been in this weird position and a lot of it hinges on the mid terms. Once that's done, the status quo completely changes regardless of the outcome of the mid terms.

 

[Scarlett]

It’s effectively a chain of events that are in a bit of a holding pattern at the moment. (actions and reactions) The status quo doesn’t really benefit anyone so i just don’t see how this can be ‘made to end’ or ‘stop’ as some protest groups wish.

Iran have basically one card to play as a counter to any hostility towards them and that is to attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz which affects everyone globally with oil and gas price shocks. (they can and do also attack their neighbours and Israel - but to some extent these don’t have a real deterrent effect) They do continue to attack ships regularly (two supertankers in the past 24 hours reportedly) especially those ships using non-Iranian approved routes.

The US and Israel want to try to ‘finish the job’ in Iran and remove them as a threat to both Israel and to the Strait of Hormuz. They likely want to remove Iranian capability to reinforce Houthi, Hamas and Hezbollah weapons stores as well.

The other Gulf nations just want it all to stop and I’d suggest at this point they probably care little how that is achieved.

The US and Israel could resume effective strikes in Iran at any time. In my opinion they’ve actually been VERY restrained in what they have attacked this year. They still hold escalation dominance as they have not yet destroyed the main Iranian oil and gas export capabilities. If they really wanted to they could destroy Kharg Island in probably a couple of hours and that would really hurt Iran long term. They have likely chosen not to as a means to ensure an economic future for a different Iranian regime. (it’s a negotiating piece)

If Kharg Island was destroyed then the Iranians would likely retaliate on as large a scale as possible and I don’t know how that would be different to what they’ve already been doing.

I also suspect the US and Israel could crash the Iranian banking system and any other number of networks but again have chosen not to, as they’re not targeting the Iranian people. (contrast this to Russia and how it seemingly fires quite indiscriminately into areas of Ukraine)

The only certainty is that the broader Middle East airspace will remain frustrated because there is no certainty about who might launch weapons through it, or when. Iranian and Houthi ballistic missiles transit through all civil aviation altitudes so there is no scope to overfly the problem.