Middle East Airspace Diversions/Cancellations

[Berlin]

We will remember Qatar's fantastic Business Class on the way to Europe, and the lounge in Doha, but I will also remember the complete absence of any communication about our return flights. We already had some misgivings about this airline because of their infamous treatment of female passengers a few years ago, and this recent experience adds further doubt.

But they're Virgin's primary partner, particularly for reward flights...

Yea- same here. Great airline in the skies, not so much on the ground. And Virgin? I could not care less…

 

[Quickstatus]

There really are no right, wrong or maybe answers and no guaranteed solutions when bombs are dropping.

 

[justinbrett]

Do you really think anyone is ‘brushing over’ the fact that it’s a war zone?

Yes I do, or at least they did until the DXB strike yesterday. I think there was a stark change of attitude from a number of members after that happened (and has been recorded for all to see). Fair enough too, it was a wake up call.

But the personal risk/danger assessment has always been the case in aviation, hasn’t it? Hundreds dead on B737 Max accidents. Some on AFF say they still will never fly a Max. Others were on board as soon as they could, There are airlines I won’t fly, even though they’ve never had a fatality. They fly thousands or hundreds every day.

TL;DR

Opening a can of worms that will take this thread far off topic. There is a credible and proven risk to DXB ops that continues.

My point over the last couple of posts is that I'm not sure pax trying to get on DXB flights are being appropriately briefed on the risks. Use of phrases like "Safe Corridors" is irresponsible IMO, although they now appear to have dropped that term. There is a clear conflict of interest for the ME3 to keep the flights going and downplay any threats - I think the Dubai government was misleading in their statement about the strike yesterday, no matter how you want to spin the facts, there was an incident at DXB.



I'm all for people making their own decisions, but so many people will blindly get on an A380 assuming it is safe - because in most parts of the world there's no way in hell that A380 will be operating if faced with similar threats.

 

[SCM]

You're 100% right. Even coming close to an aircraft which is empty should be enough to close an airport. But not in the UAE. They don't want to lose their revenue, but they may lose their credibility.

But drones and missiles are currently being directed towards Dubai as we speak. How safe can that be?

I don't think it's just revenue, at the end of the day they have a huge responsibility to carry millions of people across the globe for business, family and yes leisure reasons. If they don't fly, it impacts many people negatively.

At the end of the day, life goes on. During WW2 there was frequent bombings of London, but people didn't panic and continued to carry on.

I believe UAE and Qatar are doing everything they can to ensure safety, but ultimately, life must go on. For those very risk averse, they can always just not fly through there, personally I don't mind.

Qatar sticking to the 15 March cut off for a refund of any flights is ridiculous. Surely they’re not expecting to be 100% operational by then.

Yeh im a bit worried at the lack of comms and planning, I am flying on the 16th with Qatar

 

[Harrison_133]

Updated Qatar limited schedule:

Flights departing from Doha (DOH):

09-Mar: Seoul (ICN), Moscow (SVO), London (LHR), Delhi (DEL), Madrid (MAD), Islamabad (ISB), Beijing (PKX), Perth (PER), Nairobi (NBO), Istanbul (IST).

10-Mar: Cairo (CAI), London (LHR), Jeddah (JED), Manila (MNL), Cochin (cough), Muscat (MCT), Istanbul (IST), Mumbai (BOM), Delhi (DEL), Nairobi (NBO), Islamabad (ISB), Madrid (MAD), Frankfurt (FRA), Colombo (CMB), Milan (MXP).

Flights arriving to Doha (DOH):

10-Mar: Seoul (ICN), Moscow (SVO), London (LHR), Delhi (DEL), Madrid (MAD), Islamabad (ISB), Beijing (PKX), Perth (PER), Nairobi (NBO), Istanbul (IST).

11-Mar: Cairo (CAI), London (LHR), Jeddah (JED), Manila (MNL), Cochin (cough), Muscat (MCT), Istanbul (IST), Mumbai (BOM), Delhi (DEL), Nairobi (NBO), Islamabad (ISB), Madrid (MAD), Frankfurt (FRA), Colombo (CMB), Milan (MXP).

https://twitter.com/x/status/2030690894224200128

 

[Hunter4vr]

I don't think it's just revenue, at the end of the day they have a huge responsibility to carry millions of people across the globe for business, family and yes leisure reasons. If they don't fly, it impacts many people negatively.

At the end of the day, life goes on. During WW2 there was frequent bombings of London, but people didn't panic and continued to carry on.

I believe UAE and Qatar are doing everything they can to ensure safety, but ultimately, life must go on. For those very risk averse, they can always just not fly through there, personally I don't mind.

Yeh im a bit worried at the lack of comms and planning, I am flying on the 16th with Qatar

Few people have reported that they’ve updated the refund dates on their trade portal up to 22 March, should be updated on the public website within a day.

 

[Saab34]

Crude $105! Here come the fuel surcharges!

Now it’s $110. Fair to say we might hit that $150 by the weeks end.

 

[jrfsp]

Crude $105! Here come the fuel surcharges!

Now it’s $110. Fair to say we might hit that $150 by the weeks end.

Non hedged airlines are going to start falling over if that happens particularly as consumer demand will also decline

 

[stu961]

Few people have reported that they’ve updated the refund dates on their trade portal up to 22 March, should be updated on the public website within a day.

"If you have a confirmed booking with a travel date between 28 February and 22 March 2026, you are eligible for: Complimentary date changes of up to 14 days from the original travel date, or a refund of the unused value of your ticket."

 

[RooFlyer]

Opening a can of worms that will take this thread far off topic. There is a credible and proven risk to DXB ops that continues.

No, it all discussion about risk, relative risk and how risk appetite is an individual thing, based on their people's own circumstances. Just like never flying the Max, some people are saying they'll never fly through the ME again ... others, like me, will happily do so when I assess its safe enough (I also started flying the Max maybe a year? after MCAS was sorted) .

I'm all for people making their own decisions, but so many people will blindly get on an A380 assuming it is safe - because in most parts of the world there's no way in hell that A380 will be operating if faced with similar threats.

And I'm less inclined to think people as being 'blind' to the circumstances. If you think its all pretty scary form our comfy seats here in Oz, imagine what its like being in UAE/Qatar! People may read 'safe corridors' as being re-assuring, but they also have their own eyes and ears to what's happening around them (bang!). I reckon they'll also be talking to their folks back home, who would be sharing their advice based what they are seeing and reading. Pax are simply making an assessment of how badly they need to get back to their homes (work/family/etc) vs the risk of the plane being hit (to put it bluntly).

I agree there is a conflict of interest with ME airlines in getting their network operating again, but they also have a huge obligation to get people out and away, to continue their daily lives. They are not forcing people to fly, but providing limited opportunities to do so, if people choose.

 

[Saab34]

Non hedged airlines are going to start falling over if that happens particularly as consumer demand will also decline

Most US Carriers don’t hedge, ouch! Lucky they have strong balance sheets to navigate this in the short term.

For this current half, Virgin is 85% hedged and QF 80%.

Bain Capital will be spewing as they had been so close to offloading most of Virgin, then this all started.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

And I'm less inclined to think people as being 'blind' to the circumstances. If you think its all pretty scary form our comfy seats here in Oz, imagine what its like being in UAE/Qatar! People may read 'safe corridors' as being re-assuring, but they also have their own eyes and ears to what's happening around them (bang!). I reckon they'll also be talking to their folks back home, who would be sharing their advice based what they are seeing and reading. Pax are simply making an assessment of how badly they need to get back to their homes (work/family/etc) vs the risk of the plane being hit (to put it bluntly).

Agree. It is condescending to assume the mindset of pax taking these flights. For all we know they could be the smart ones… getting out now while there’s a relative window of opportunity, with available flights, and before things get much worse.

 

[Rembrandt]

I wonder if some airlines or even the EU will consider flying over Russian & Belarusian airspace if both of the other alternative routes close down. That's if Russia allows it of course. Chinese do this already...

 

[jase05]

Agree. It is condescending to assume the mindset of pax taking these flights. For all we know they could be the smart ones… getting out now while there’s a relative window of opportunity, with available flights, and before things get much worse.

Definitely a tough decision and one I don’t envy for passengers.
I honestly see this thing dragging out for at least a month more and who knows if things get better or worse during that period so passengers will rightly start to get desperate and prepared to take the risk to get home. I doubt many that are stuck over there have the means, will or ability to stick these out for weeks/months

 

[LondonAussie]

I wonder if some airlines or even the EU will consider flying over Russian & Belarusian airspace if both of the other alternative routes close down. That's if Russia allows it of course. Chinese do this already...

Emirates have been flying over Russia (and the Arctic) on some of their DXB to USA routes, I think Dallas and west coast cities.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I wonder if some airlines or even the EU will consider flying over Russian & Belarusian airspace if both of the other alternative routes close down. That's if Russia allows it of course.

I thought it was a sanctions issue rather than Russian mandate? I dare say there would be incentives for russia to allow overflight… we saw recently that the US issued a temporary waiver of sanctions for russia to sell oil to India, so other similar waivers would be a bargaining chip if there was any reluctance for air traffic.

There are alternatives, for example via Africa, but potentially with extra stops.

 

[RooFlyer]

And I see EK is at it again. EK414 just departed DXB for SYD. EK 43 about to follow for Frankfurt. EK7 also just in the air bound for LHR.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Definitely a tough decision and one I don’t envy for passengers.
I honestly see this thing dragging out for at least a month more and who knows if things get better or worse during that period so passengers will rightly start to get desperate and prepared to take the risk to get home. I doubt many that are stuck over there have the means, will or ability to stick these out for weeks/months

The other risk I’ve read is the continued availability of interceptor missiles. Once those run out or become in short supply it might become a lot more dangerous on the ground. People are weighing these issues up… and the advice from the Aussie government is to seriously consider the options you have - such as commercial flights. They're not saying ‘just hold out there’.

 

[justinbrett]

No, it all discussion about risk, relative risk and how risk appetite is an individual thing, based on their people's own circumstances. Just like never flying the Max, some people are saying they'll never fly through the ME again ... others, like me, will happily do so when I assess its safe enough (I also started flying the Max maybe a year? after MCAS was sorted) .

There is objectivity to risk assessment, and the Max has been cleared by all major regulators. People refusing to fly them now are bordering on superstitious (something I didn't want to get into) - but yes, they are free to abstain as everybody can make their own choices.

The risk for ME3 ops right now is real and credible. The incident on Saturday missed an A380 by only a few hundred metres. Every western airline has suspended ops (VS gave it a go but now realise it's not safe). Equating the two is very unhelpful IMO.

And I'm less inclined to think people as being 'blind' to the circumstances. If you think its all pretty scary form our comfy seats here in Oz, imagine what its like being in UAE/Qatar! People may read 'safe corridors' as being re-assuring, but they also have their own eyes and ears to what's happening around them (bang!). I reckon they'll also be talking to their folks back home, who would be sharing their advice based what they are seeing and reading. Pax are simply making an assessment of how badly they need to get back to their homes (work/family/etc) vs the risk of the plane being hit (to put it bluntly).

I agree there is a conflict of interest with ME airlines in getting their network operating again, but they also have a huge obligation to get people out and away, to continue their daily lives. They are not forcing people to fly, but providing limited opportunities to do so, if people choose.

In a perfect world yes that would be the case, but as I said many have a lot of trust in the authorities (both UAE and AUS) and the airlines, and none of those three have really spoken about the risks to pax on these flights - except for that line I posted from Smart Traveller. The statement from the Dubai Government is enough for me not to trust anything from them with regards to safety.

Agree. It is condescending to assume the mindset of pax taking these flights. For all we know they could be the smart ones… getting out now while there’s a relative window of opportunity, with available flights, and before things get much worse.

It's based on what official sources have been saying, or more accurately not saying, not assuming what people are thinking.

The smart ones are taking the bus IMO.

 

[Quickstatus]

Now it’s $110. Fair to say we might hit that $150 by the weeks end.

Long thin routes might be affected first

consumer demand will also decline

Difficult job for RBA trying to thread the needle.
Temporary Spike in fuel prices would be discounted by the RBA, but the duration of temporary is unknown, and there are still inflationary pressures in the economy.

.....

While objective data are used for risk assessment, by nature they cannot be objective. Risk is not a physical fact nor is it binary - nothing is either safe or unsafe..
Risk assessments by necessity are subject to human (subjective) intepretation and is heavily contextually dependant and prone to bias. In a dynamic situation such as a war, the other problem is the limitation of accurate reliable data.

The other issue is how to intepret a risk assessment. Is 1:10000 safe or unsafe?