I think the majority of ME airspace will be reopened in about a week, at most, and I base this opinion on:
- last year during the 12-day war the Israeli Air Force pretty much had (maybe localised) air superiority by the 10th or 11th day. Recall they ended up plinking old Iranian F14s that hadn’t moved for years, such was the freedom they had (and that they’d already attacked the higher priority targets). Most of the Iranian air defence capability was neutralised. They had scattered their ballistic weapon systems but still retained some of that capability.
- the Iranians have built many more drones but they still have a finite number. Similarly, they have a finite number of missiles and launchers.
- again their air defences are being attrited as are missiles and their launch systems. Add to that, much of the command and control in Iran is being destroyed.
- as last year, I expect missile and drone systems will be scattered around the country to try and help them survive. The problem they will face is that even with a local level commander, they may not have authority to fire, or the coordinates to target if they don’t have their central C2 network or headquarters.
- these first 24-48 hours those local commanders are quite likely to be using pre-planned targeting information and orders. The Iranians have watched the build up over the past month and will have been planning and it’s likely their plans, in the event of a regime threatening attack, were to try attacking all US facilities throughout the Gulf region. The problem they will have now is how long is their initial planning good for? I suspect it’s probably good only for the first few days; then they’ll need updated orders and many elements may not get them.
- I also expect much of the maritime capability and port infrastructure will have been targeted or will be shortly. Securing the Straits of Hormuz will have been a US priority. The biggest threat is likely mines and concealed coastal defence cruise missiles. We can’t see it but there will be a persistent ISR presence in that area.
- Next, if the Iranians continue to launch strikes at the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, I fully expect the Air Force’s of those nations will join in the hunting of Iranian missiles and launchers. If you recall the ‘Scud hunts’ from the Gulf War, they’ll be doing that, coordinated in time or location by the US. I don’t believe it is in Irans interest for this to happen.
- There are plenty of unknowns: how will the next Ayatollah react? How long will they survive if they choose to fight? How much did Iran learn from the Taliban’s long struggle? How much of a ground level uprising will there be from the Iranian population? What is the US and Israeli end-state?
To stay on topic, unless Iran wants to continue to alienate its neighbours, I suspect they will eventually realise that killing GCC citizens is not in their long term interest. In addition, those same GCC nations will want to get their main airports back open and will likely do so as soon as they can, hence their airspace will be reopened sooner rather than later. Finally, Iran may well maintain domestic security, but their ability to reach out and touch others is only going to go in one direction (lessen) from their initial salvos yesterday.
We live in interesting times. My 2c.
