Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[transpactraveller]

I don't think the excise reduction was on Jet Fuel anyway

 

[Quickstatus]

It comes off unless the legislation is amended to extend the reduction.

That is correct.
Treasury laws amendment (Fuel excise relief) Bill 2026

Importantly the added sunset clause:


It is 2 weeks to 1 July
Extending the fuel excise reduction will require enabling legislation to amend the sunset date. The next parliament sitting day is 22-25 June and 29June-2July.
Albo and Co are being very quiet about the sunset of the Fuel excise reduction.
No one with a loudspeaker platform is advocating maintaining the Fuel excise reduction past 1July. Certainly no one from the opposition
RBA has interest rates on hold which gives the Govt wiggle room.

Petrol, diesel and Aviation fuels are down which gives the govt further wiggle room and incentive to collect more tax:


Aviation fuel are also not taxed at the same rate as petrol and diesel - only 3.55c/L and not affected by the Fuel Excise reduction.


Trends in Jet fuel

 

[Saab34]

So what is the current reading on the crack spread? I don’t know how far ahead airlines pay for the fuel.

 

[Quickstatus]

crack spread

321 is about $49/bbl
The refiners are making lots of $$$
.

 

[Saab34]

Hmm. Still a little way to run yet before airlines get any reprieve. $45 better than $60 I guess.

It will be interesting if we get any oversupply pricing next year.

 

[Saab34]

So it seems while Oil has crashed to pre war levels, the 3-2-1 crack spread still remains high and is trending up.

Regardless some breathing space for airlines. I understand Virgin’s heavier hedge mostly fell off last week so good timing I guess.

I still think airlines will be cautious with the route networks over the next half, some marginal routes cut or temporarily suspended will probably remain that way.

 

[Himeno]

They extended the fuel tax reduction for another month https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/fuel-tax-relief-extended

 

[clifford]

They extended the fuel tax reduction for another month https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/fuel-tax-relief-extended

At 50%, but I haven't noticed any change in prices at my local servo.

 

[Quickstatus]

52.6c to 20.6c to 36.6c until 2August.

Price rise near me went up about 6-8 cents

 

[tomlee1986]

I would say the oil prices WILL go through the roof because of THIS!!

Trump says Iran ceasefire is over but negotiations can continue | Nine.com.au

US President Donald Trump says that the interim agreement with Iran is “over” but he will allow talks to continue.

www.nine.com.au

 

[transpactraveller]

Heading up again.

 

[Quickstatus]

3-2-1 crack spread
Cost to refine 3 barrels of crude into 2 gasoline and 1 diesel
It hit $62 earlier today

Refining margins going up.

 

[Quickstatus]

Previous posts:
#45 Tuesday 10/3/26
#165 for 31/3/26
#214 for 07/04/26
#307 for 14/4/26
#351 for 21/4/26
#382 for 28/04/26
#393 for 05/05/26
#412 for 12/5/26
#415 for 19/5/26
#418 for 26/5/26
#419 for 02/6/26
#434 for 09/6/26


The change in fuel stocks since 10/3/26
Petrol increased by 117ML (and reduced from 09/06/26)
Jet Fuel increased by 126ML ( and increased from 09/06/26)
Diesel increase by 749ML (and in reduced from 09/06/26)

 

[Saab34]

Sounds like we are about to go through another ‘wave’. The issue with any potential upcoming surge is aa above, the refining margin which is still growing and has been for the last few weeks while oil crashed.

 

[jrfsp]

Sounds like we are about to go through another ‘wave’. The issue with any potential upcoming surge is aa above, the refining margin which is still growing and has been for the last few weeks while oil crashed.

Brent crude up another 6% today

Highest price since the “ceasefire” agreement