Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[transpactraveller]

I don't think the excise reduction was on Jet Fuel anyway

 

[Quickstatus]

It comes off unless the legislation is amended to extend the reduction.

That is correct.
Treasury laws amendment (Fuel excise relief) Bill 2026

Importantly the added sunset clause:


It is 2 weeks to 1 July
Extending the fuel excise reduction will require enabling legislation to amend the sunset date. The next parliament sitting day is 22-25 June and 29June-2July.
Albo and Co are being very quiet about the sunset of the Fuel excise reduction.
No one with a loudspeaker platform is advocating maintaining the Fuel excise reduction past 1July. Certainly no one from the opposition
RBA has interest rates on hold which gives the Govt wiggle room.

Petrol, diesel and Aviation fuels are down which gives the govt further wiggle room and incentive to collect more tax:


Aviation fuel are also not taxed at the same rate as petrol and diesel - only 3.55c/L and not affected by the Fuel Excise reduction.


Trends in Jet fuel

 

[Saab34]

So what is the current reading on the crack spread? I don’t know how far ahead airlines pay for the fuel.

 

[Quickstatus]

crack spread

321 is about $49/bbl
The refiners are making lots of $$$
.

 

[Saab34]

Hmm. Still a little way to run yet before airlines get any reprieve. $45 better than $60 I guess.

It will be interesting if we get any oversupply pricing next year.

 

[Saab34]

So it seems while Oil has crashed to pre war levels, the 3-2-1 crack spread still remains high and is trending up.

Regardless some breathing space for airlines. I understand Virgin’s heavier hedge mostly fell off last week so good timing I guess.

I still think airlines will be cautious with the route networks over the next half, some marginal routes cut or temporarily suspended will probably remain that way.