Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[Saab34]

Rising oil and an excise about to fall off, sounds politically unpopular, so let’s see if the excise cut its rolled on.

 

[Quickstatus]

excise cut its rolled on.

Or cut is reduced to 25% instead of 50%

 

[Pushka]

Slightly off topic, interesting that at our local servo the price of diesel is back down to $1.99.

Before war hovered around $1.65. Peak was $2.65

As the parties have started shooting at each other one would expect prices will start rising again.

Petrol in Adelaide is cheaper than before the war. $1.61 for base grade yesterday. Will check diesel today.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Petrol in Adelaide is cheaper than before the war. $1.61 for base grade yesterday. Will check diesel today.

And in Sydney! For some reason Ampol had really cheap fuel on Sunday, $1.59 a litre, with a further 4c off with a shopping docket… so $1.55!

 

[AuSammy]

Petrol in Adelaide is cheaper than before the war. $1.61 for base grade yesterday. Will check diesel today.

In my limited experience, Adelaide seems to always be cheaper than Brisbane.

Intriguing as SA doesn’t have a refinery and there is a refinery less than 10km from me

 

[Pushka]

SA Adelaide. Did see it at $1.95 just up the road for diesel.

 

[jrfsp]

From the ABC:

“The Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has penned a note on the oil market.

Here is the key paragraph from the note:

Even if escalations between US and Iran cool, time is ticking before global oil and refined product stockpiles fall to operational stress levels.

If these levels are reached, which we believe could happen between mid‑June to mid‑July if the strait remains closed, Brent oil prices may need to surge to ~$US150/bbl to force demand destruction in emerging Asian economies (i.e. where high prices force lower demand).”

If oil gets to $150 a barrel the global economy will grind to a crawl.

 

[Melburnian1]

From the ABC:

“The Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has penned a note on the oil market.

Here is the key paragraph from the note:

Even if escalations between US and Iran cool, time is ticking before global oil and refined product stockpiles fall to operational stress levels.

If these levels are reached, which we believe could happen between mid‑June to mid‑July if the strait remains closed, Brent oil prices may need to surge to ~$US150/bbl to force demand destruction in emerging Asian economies (i.e. where high prices force lower demand).”

If oil gets to $150 a barrel the global economy will grind to a crawl.

No sign of 'escalations' cooling.

I am surprised that no one in Australia seems to now be panic buying.

 

[Pushka]

From the ABC:

“The Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has penned a note on the oil market.

Here is the key paragraph from the note:

Even if escalations between US and Iran cool, time is ticking before global oil and refined product stockpiles fall to operational stress levels.

If these levels are reached, which we believe could happen between mid‑June to mid‑July if the strait remains closed, Brent oil prices may need to surge to ~$US150/bbl to force demand destruction in emerging Asian economies (i.e. where high prices force lower demand).”

If oil gets to $150 a barrel the global economy will grind to a crawl.

It's pretty much mid June now so that call is old. Not saying it's wrong but not current either.

 

[Saab34]

Some airlines are saying they are now budgeting for high pricing until the end of the year.

I’d expect some takeovers coming soon. Some will surely fold.

 

[Quickstatus]

Look at the Oil futures instead.

 

[transpactraveller]

No sign of 'escalations' cooling.

I am surprised that no one in Australia seems to now be panic buying.

The media had a lot of influence in the panic buying. They were panic reporting.

They seem to be bored of it lately. Pauline is getting them more clicks now.

Recent war escalations are barely covered in the news, no one's paying much attention anymore.

Overnight, Trump said he would hit Iran "very hard tonight" and "assume total control of their Oil". He followed up a few hours later saying he'd cancelled tonight's bombings and would sign a peace deal this weekend.

 

[clifford]

would sign a peace deal this weekend.

Yes, of course, that's going to happen. I did my panic buying earlier today.

 

[Quickstatus]

Fuel stocks held 09 June 2026

Previous posts:
#45 Tuesday 10/3/26
#165 for 31/3/26
#214 for 07/04/26
#307 for 14/4/26
#351 for 21/4/26
#382 for 28/04/26
#393 for 05/05/26
#412 for 12/5/26
#415 for 19/5/26
#418 for 26/5/26
#419 for 02/6/26

The change in fuel stocks since 10/3/26 ( 13 weeks ago):
Petrol increased by 322ML (and increased from last week)
Jet Fuel increased by 89ML ( and increased from last week)
Diesel increase by 838ML (and increased from last week)

Fuel stock are going up up up and prices are coming down down down but will go up on 1 July

 

[drron]

I certainly don’t expect prices to fall quickly as there are a lot of places now keen to get their fuel stocks a lot higher than they have been. It happened a lot back in the 70s when oil stocks performed much better than expected.

 

[clifford]

prices are coming down down down but will go up on 1 July

What do you know that I don't?

 

[MELso]

What do you know that I don't?

Petrol excise reduction comes off.

 

[clifford]

Petrol excise reduction comes off.

I thought that hadn't been confirmed by Albo et al.

 

[MELso]

I thought that hadn't been confirmed by Albo et al.

It comes off unless the legislation is amended to extend the reduction.

 

[clifford]

It comes off unless the legislation is amended to extend the reduction.

Let's see how worried they are.