Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[markis10]

Supplies that have been arriving left before the war I believe. Now there's a gap of no ships replenishing. Maybe at risk for the next couple of months.

A lot of this is supply that left before the war broke out or running through the reserves.

Supplies arriving this week did not leave prewar. Be it crude or refined, by far the majority come from Asia based on tappas from the Singapore/Malaysian fields.
In Brisbane the tanker berthed left Brunei on the 2nd April


In port botany we see another early April departures at both botany and Kurnell


Down in Geelong, same deal

 

[Pushka]

Supplies arriving this week did not leave prewar. Be it crude or refined, by far the majority come from Asia based on tappas from the Singapore/Malaysian fields.
In Brisbane the tanker berthed left Brunei on the 2nd April
View attachment 503978

In port botany we see another early April departures at both botany and Kurnell
View attachment 503980View attachment 503981

Down in Geelong, same deal

View attachment 503982

Well that's somewhat reassuring. But the fuel they have put on to these tankers in those ports, has that been replenished or isn't that an issue.

Sounds like you have a lot of confidence for the future then.

 

[markis10]

But the fuel they have put on to these tankers in those ports, has that been replenished or isn't that an issue.

Tapis Pumping Platform acts as a hub, handling around 360 kbd (thousand barrels per day) from several fields, as a country we get priority for that because it’s a very sweet (low sulpher) crude the locals don’t need or can afford. They also need our LPG.

Plenty of tanker activity

 

[markis10]

Sounds like you have a lot of confidence for the future then.

If you ignore the hype and look at the facts it’s not hard to be confident.

1. We have four refiners not two, a fact the media constantly gets wrong. While the other two are not big, they are getting bigger and IOR does mainly diesel, situated in outback Queensland ontop of a big reserve, watch this space. Small oil refinery in outback Queensland could be on cusp of expansion
2. Our largest refinery and petrol retailer has a majority shareholder who happens to be the worlds biggest trader of fuel with over 300 tankers on the sea, they are making great coin at the moment and it’s very much in their interests to support the Aussie operations like they have done for 70 years. I think it was a mistake for the government to offer a guarantee on payment/supply in this case because at least for this company, they already effectively have it via their largest shareholder - family first so to speak.

 

[Pushka]

If you ignore the hype and look at the facts it’s not hard to be confident.

1. We have four refiners not two, a fact the media constantly gets wrong. While the other two are not big, they are getting bigger and IOR does mainly diesel, situated in outback Queensland ontop of a big reserve, watch this space. Small oil refinery in outback Queensland could be on cusp of expansion
2. Our largest refinery and petrol retailer has a majority shareholder who happens to be the worlds biggest trader of fuel with over 300 tankers on the sea, they are making great coin at the moment and it’s very much in their interests to support the Aussie operations like they have done for 70 years. I think it was a mistake for the government to offer a guarantee on payment/supply in this case because at least for this company, they already effectively have it via their largest shareholder - family first so to speak.

I did mention earlier upthread I wish there was a news service that gave facts not hyperbole. Unicorn. Thankyou I appreciate your input.

 

[Quickstatus]

majority shareholder who happens to be the worlds biggest trader of fuel with over 300 tankers on the sea

Sounds like Vitol

 

[JohnM]

If you ignore the hype and look at the facts it’s not hard to be confident.

1. We have four refiners not two, a fact the media constantly gets wrong. While the other two are not big, they are getting bigger and IOR does mainly diesel, situated in outback Queensland ontop of a big reserve, watch this space. Small oil refinery in outback Queensland could be on cusp of expansion

Ahh - the Taroom Trough:

 

[Quickstatus]

Ahh - the Taroom Trough:

Question is even if approved, how much would it cost to extract the oil, as most is unconventional oil/gas
Some say USD $60-$90 /barrel to get it out, then add in the refining costs maybe USD $10-$15/barrel

 

[jrfsp]

Interesting article on the exponential demand for imported jet fuel in Australia. Jet fuel use is expected to increase by 75% from now to 2050.

It highlights our reliance on air travel, syd-mel one of the busiest routes In the world, other countries with similar city pairs have been investing in fast rail while we continue to do study after study, Japan, China, Spain, France even the NE US corridor.

Our population is only going to grow and our airports are behind in capacity.

MEL-SYD QF/VA are at times flying 737s every 15 mins each (not thinking of JQ), how much fuel could be saved by having wide bodies with high density configs like in Asia, would reduce ATC delays for a start.

Could Australia make enough biofuel to keep us flying?

Australia exports billions of dollars worth of canola seed to make sustainable jet fuel that is sold back to us. This is what it will take to make it here.

www.abc.net.au

 

[AuSammy]

MEL-SYD QF/VA are at times flying 737s every 15 mins each (not thinking of JQ), how much fuel could be saved by having wide bodies with high density configs like in Asia, would reduce ATC delays for a start.

Indeed. I recall the days of doing the golden triangle in a 767. Much more comfortable travel.

Surely would reduce costs associated with staffing and fuel. Luggage in containers, less airbridge interactions, consolidated flights reducing number of pilots, less congestion on the runways improving “on time” performance.

Don’t understand the logic of 15m departures.

 

[Quickstatus]

Frequency vs capacity analysis is always complex

Both assumes that the airline will want to maximise capacity on any aircraft taking off from the runway.

High frequency:
Customer wins because it approaches a "turn up and go" minimising unproductive dwell time and potential costs with having to stay overnight - pay a little more to get to destination quickly than having to dwell
Demand is also spread over the course of the day
Reduces the impact of one non performing sector (aircraft out of service) on the network
Maximising crew duty hours per day while increasing the possibility the crew to arrive back to home base at end of day.
Better yield management - allows the airline to quickly consolidate flights when sectors are not full or adding extra seats when there is over demand.
Most analysis suggest the high demand short haul routes are much better for the airline and customer when it is operated as a high frequency.

 

[AuSammy]

Sort of related to shortages = driving price rises

Non-middle east travel going up.

https://loyaltylobby.com/2026/04/21/japan-airlines-increases-fuel-surcharges-by-91-to-117-from-may-1-2026/

 

[jrfsp]

Sort of related to shortages = driving price rises

Non-middle east travel going up.

https://loyaltylobby.com/2026/04/21/japan-airlines-increases-fuel-surcharges-by-91-to-117-from-may-1-2026/

Air fares soar by nearly 25% as Iran war forces flights to re-route

Airspace restrictions caused by the conflict sent plane ticket prices higher, research shows.

www.bbc.com

Airfares have risen 25% since last year, LON - MEL apparently risen by 75%!!!!

 

[muppet]

Interesting article on the exponential demand for imported jet fuel in Australia. Jet fuel use is expected to increase by 75% from now to 2050.

It highlights our reliance on air travel, syd-mel one of the busiest routes In the world, other countries with similar city pairs have been investing in fast rail while we continue to do study after study, Japan, China, Spain, France even the NE US corridor.

Our population is only going to grow and our airports are behind in capacity.

MEL-SYD QF/VA are at times flying 737s every 15 mins each (not thinking of JQ), how much fuel could be saved by having wide bodies with high density configs like in Asia, would reduce ATC delays for a start.

Could Australia make enough biofuel to keep us flying?

Australia exports billions of dollars worth of canola seed to make sustainable jet fuel that is sold back to us. This is what it will take to make it here.

www.abc.net.au

It’s almost as if they like small, regular flights into SYD to consume landing slots to deny access to potential competitors….